Iranian Pundits Not Sure About Outcome Of Grossi's Visit To Tehran

The IAEA Director General, Rafael Grossi is visiting Iran this weekend, a move which will have implications globally.

The US Special Envoy for Iran, Rob Malley, announced that the United States would decide its next steps on the back of the visit, to conclude the level of compliance regarding its nuclear obligations.
“We’re in very close contact with the E3 and others around the globe who are concerned about Iran’s nuclear program, and we’ll decide at that point,” Malley said, speaking to at a J Street forum on Thursday.

Much hangs in the balance as the world awaits the results. The US and EU seemingly at odds over whether Iran should be censured at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting next week over traces of 84% enriched uranium detected at Iran’s underground Fordo facility in January.

The Wall Street Journal’s deputy Brussels bureau chief Laurence Norman said Friday that the Europeans will not move to censure Iran at the IAEA board meeting next week without US support. The issue is that he believes the Biden Administration is not inclined to do that.

“Iran tends to react to a censor by escalating its actions, either escalating its nuclear work or further restricting the ability of the IAEA inspectors to keep an eye on what Iran's doing. And I think there's a concern that that could very quickly lead to a crisis, which of course would be a crisis on top of the Russia one,’ he said

“Regardless of what we do, our concerns about Iran exist, and they’re not going away,” Malley said during the J street discussion, citing concerns about the country's lack of cooperation with the IAEA.

"There are still a number of outstanding questions that they have repeatedly refused to answer; [including] the discovery of particles of uranium enriched at roughly 84%. We need some explanation as to that, and we’re… waiting for the IAEA’s…own assessment, and many other issues that the IAEA will raise with them.”
Grossi's short visit which will conclude Saturday night, was instigated by the Islamic Republic, according to an IAEA tweet.

Tehran has shown in the past that it pays attention to the IAEA board meeting and usually makes a gesture of dialogue and diplomatic interaction prior to these meetings, hoping to prevent a damaging resolution.

Malley said it is believed that Iran has made new requests, but the outcome of the visit will depend on the government's transparency, which as yet, Malley said it has "failed to do now for a very long time".

The IAEA recently said it would not drop its probes into the nuclear capabilities of the Islamic Regime and its past nuclear activities including traces of uranium found at previously undeclared sites three years ago.

Depending on the results, a trigger mechanism could be activated, meaning harsher sanctions on the regime.

Upon arrival at the airport,Rafael Grossi was welcomed by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran’s spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi, a deputy of the body’s head Mohammad Eslami.

According to a diplomatic source, Grossi is scheduled to meet with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi early Saturday morning, hoping to "relaunch the dialogue.” "Grossi wants to have the opportunity to restart the relationship at the highest level," the European source added.

A US State Department official said Wednesday that Washington is waiting for the head of the UN nuclear watchdog to meet with Iranian officials before deciding on its next steps in response to Tehran’s nuclear escalations, Al Arabiya reported.

The visit comes amid discussions with Tehran on the origin of uranium particles enriched to up to 83.7% purity, very close to weapons grade, at its Fordow enrichment plant, a report by the watchdog confirmed earlier in the week. Iran has rejected the claims of enrichment up to that level, with Eslami saying on Wednesday that the Islamic Republic's production is at 60 percent.

Iran began violating the 2015 nuclear deal’s (JCPOA) enrichment limit set at 3.67 percent in 2019 when the Trump administration imposed full oil export sanctions, but until the Biden administration came to office higher enrichment had stayed at around 5 percent. The UN watchdog has been demanding other explanations from Tehran about its secret nuclear work before 2003 and so far there has been no resolution.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Senate weekly bipartisan luncheon on Tuesday, Senator Bob Menendez told Iran International: “I don't know what it will take for the administration to understand that Iran is not changing its ways, on the contrary it's doubling down."

Menendez has been in the US Congress since 1993 and is known for his measured tone and composed articulations but in a rare expression of frustration, he said: "There should be a clear set of actions that sends a message to the regime in Iran that their behavior will have consequences."

He is one of many in the Congress whose patience is wearing thin. The Biden administration, which in March 2021 said that Trump's maximum pressure campaign is a failure, continued with those set of sanctions and has been gradually adding more to that.

As Iran inches closer to military grade enriched uranium, it is notable that the US Congress is getting further frustrated with regards to the Biden administration's policy on Iran. Republicans have kept almost all their ranks together on criticizing Biden for it, but they don't seem to have a strategy to deal with Iran.

Some Democrats still have not given up on a nuclear deal with the Islamic republic, but they are split on what to do next. War with Iran will dim the chances of reelection in a war weary America and the President's approval ratings are not strong. But there are also many Democrats who demand a tougher policy toward Iran.

Patrick Clawson, Senior fellow and Director of research at Washington Institute said that as Iran continues to find ways of evading sanctions, the international community must be vigilant. "There are always steps that can be taken to increase sanctions enforcement. Iran creatively comes up with new ways to evade sanctions and the challenge for the United States Government is to stay up to date in cracking down on the latest evasion mechanisms”, he said.

As military activity steps up, that too, casts a different light on the global stage. From Israel’s shadow war with Iran to the US drills with Israel and other allies, there are fears escalation is not far away.

Since the Abraham Accords signed in 2020 brought diplomatic relations between Israel and some of its Gulf neighbors, namely the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, the arena is becoming more complex. Fears of Iran's capabilities are rippling not only across the region, but globally.

“The drills with the Israelis have become much more explicitly anti-Iran,” Clawson told Iran International. “That could accelerate. So too could the long-standing efforts to persuade GCC states to cooperate on early warning for air defense, on which there has been some notable progress, at long last.”

As military experts increasingly believe Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear progress leaves Israel - Iran’s arch enemy - with little choice but to take military action, there is a real worry that Middle East stability is shaking.

In an exclusive interview, Senator Jim Risch, who has been in regular talks with Israel's hardline Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since his return to office, said: “Everything Iran has been doing that is bad behavior, always endangers the environment in the Middle East." He said "each and every one" of his meetings with Netanyahu have had Iran at their core.

However, with domestic issues at home pointing to a potential third intifada on the horizon and civil unrest tearing the country apart, Clawson believes Netanyahu and the Biden administration do not feel Iran is the number one issue they face.

Neither is eager for a full-scale confrontation with Iran and it is no secret that Netanyahu is a fan of covert strikes, not only against the nuclear program but also the drones and precision-missile project, an issue the Biden team steadfastly refuses to be drawn into publicly. “Many in the White House think Israeli covert strikes are ineffective or counterproductive because Iran retaliates by reducing IAEA access,” Clawson added.

As options begin to run dry as to how best to deal with Iran's rogue behavior in spite of sanctions, Senator Josh Hawley has suggested radical new steps be taken. "I think it is good to delegitimize the current government of Iran which ought to be treated as a pariah government. I think a part of what the US government must continue to do is to empower allies and partners in the region to disempower Iran, rather than empower it, which is what this current administration I think has tried to do."

Anne-Claire Legendre, Spokesperson of the French ministry of foreign affairs said news of Iran enriching uranium to near 84 percent is “extremely serious".

“This report states that the direction Iran is taking is very concerning,” she said on Thursday, about the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) monitoring result.

IAEA chief, Rafael Grossi, will meet Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran on Saturday at the invitation of the government.

The IAEA hopes to “relaunch the dialogue” on the country’s atomic work in the wake of news that Iran is dangerously close to producing weapon’s grade uranium. The visit could fill a vital diplomatic vacuum in the wake of the breakdown of talks to revive the JCPOA with the US.

The global body confirmed Tuesday that it has detected uranium particles with a purity of 83.7%, while to produce a nuclear bomb uranium with a purity of 90% is needed. However, last week, Tehran claimed it had not made any attempt to enrich uranium beyond 60 percent.

It is possible that the "spike" was accidental, though this one was relatively large, diplomats said.

The IAEA has blamed Iran for failing to inform the body of substantial changes made to the two clusters of advanced centrifuges enriching uranium to up to 60% purity.

The Islamic Republic has been enriching uranium well over the limits laid down in the landmark 2015 deal with the P5+1 group of countries, which started to fall apart when Washington withdrew from it in 2018.

State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters during his press briefing Wednesday that US policy is clear. “President Biden has a solemn, steadfast commitment to the fact that Iran will never acquire a nuclear weapon. We will never allow that to happen. We continue to believe that the way to address this challenge in a way that is durable, in a way that is permanent, is through diplomacy.”

However, increasingly more members of congress from both sides of the isle are demanding a change of policy regarding negotiations with the Islamic Republic to revive the 2015 nuclear accord, known as the JCPOA. US lawmakers are pushing a few initiatives for bills to censure the Iranian government for its brutal suppression of protests and other malign activities.

Some observers opposed to the JCPOA and the Iranian regime argue that the Biden administration policy of keeping the diplomatic option on the table appears increasingly untenable as Tehran crosses red lines set by the West, including weapons shipments to Russia.

Price tried to drive home the message that for the US all options are on the table. In answering a reporter he said that although diplomacy was “the most effective way”, the administration has “been very clear that we will, through all means necessary, ensure that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon.”

The latest example of a worrying development in Iran is a report by the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA saying that they found uranium particles enriched close to 84 percent, while Iran had previously not surpassed 60-percent enrichment.

Price said, “we are in close contact with our allies and partners in Europe and the region, the broader region, as we await additional details from the IAEA.”

The IAEA Board will meet next week and the agency will submit the official report to member states. Iran and Russia claimed on Wednesday that the issue was a misunderstanding and “has been resolved,” while at the same time they said IAEA chief Rafael Grossi will visit Tehran on Friday. The claims have not been confirmed by the IAEA.

If the UN watchdog submits a critical report, saying there is no satisfactory answer to its finding of highly enriched uranium, the US and its allies will be forced to take action, including triggering the return of international sanctions at the United Nations. Iran has already been censured twice by the Board of Governors in 2022, and another critical resolution will not be taken seriously.

The spectre of a military attack against Iran’s nuclear program has become larger in recent weeks, as Israel has signaled continued preparations to take action if necessary.

A US Defense Department official warned this week that the Islamic Republic could produce enough highly enriched uranium for one bomb in less than two weeks.

The Biden administration has drawn closer to Israel in recent weeks, conducting large-scale joint military exercises in January.

The US ambassador to Israel Tom Nides said in February that “As President [Joe] Biden has said, we will not stand by and watch Iran get a nuclear weapon, number one. Number two, he said, all options are on the table. Number three, Israel can and should do whatever they need to deal with, and we’ve got their back.”