IAEA Chides Iran For Undeclared Change To Uranium Enrichment Setup

Asked If he would acknowledge that the two-year diplomatic effort has failed, Malley said, “Diplomacy never ends as we do other things,” adding that the Biden administration has added sanctions, tried to contain Iran in the region and “mobilized the international community.”

However, he acknowledged that relations with Iran have worsened since the Biden administration came to office and started indirect talks with Tehran in April 2021.

The negotiation ended in deadlock in September, as US said Iran presented “extraneous” demands.

Pressed to acknowledge if the 2015 nuclear accord known as the JCPOA is dead, Malley avoided a direct answer, saying that Iran “turned down multiple opportunities to end this crisis…so you could reach your own conclusion.” He reiterated that the US is willing to continue talks with Iran “to reach a diplomatic outcome.”

Following the brutal and deadly suppression of protests in Iran many US politicians and Iranian activists have demanded an official end to the talks aimed at reviving the JCPOA, abandoned by former President Donald Trump in 2018.

Iranian activists have been demanding Malley's resignation, seeing him as an advocate of unending talks with the Islamic Republic, instead of opting for more pressure.

Malley reiterated that diplomacy is still the priority for the administration and a military option is only “a last resort,” apparently meaning to stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon. He added that the military option “is a very difficult option, a very dangerous option that President Biden would not engage in cavalierly.”

On the issue of how long the administration is willing to continue diplomacy with Iran when a point comes that it seems useless, Malley confirmed that the US has been sending “messages to Iran, but let’s not overstate,” and call it negotiations. He insisted that the US needs to convey messages, including about possible consequences if Iran supplies ballistic missiles to Russia.

When asked, Malley did not deny an Iran International report recently that he held three meetings with Iran's ambassador at the United Nations.

Asked if expanding close US and Israeli military cooperation and large joint military exercises are aimed at sending a message to Iran, Malley said these steps are designed to show that the US “has Israel’s back and we will work with Israel,” on protecting shared interests. He also said the drills aimed to demonstrate that regardless of what is happening in Europe “we could do other things, we could mobilize to defend our interests.”

In responding to a question if the administration is “compartmentalizing” its policy toward Iran, in terms of separating the nuclear issue from the gross violations of human rights, Malley said, “There is a degree to which we have to, in the sense that we can do two things,” support the people in Iran and defend the US national interest in not allowing Iran to go nuclear. He added “there is no contradiction between these two.”

The US envoy also defended the administration’s efforts in supporting the protest movement in Iran, citing frequent statements by President Joe Biden and his top officials and mobilizing international support to expel Iran from the UN Commission on the Status of Women in December. However, Malley reiterated that US “is not in the business of regime change.”

Malley praised the convergence of positions with Europe regarding Iran and said Tehran had a clear choice of returning to its obligations under the JCPOA, and to stop supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine. He added that US is not asking something “tantamount to surrender” but a “realistic choice, which is in their hands.”

At the same time, some US and Iranian officials and commentators are adamant that the JCPOA is dead, while other whisper of an interim agreement.

Newsweek quoted US National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby as saying last week that "There has been no progress on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and we are not looking to make progress on the JCPOA anytime in the near future. "Iranian sources also claimed that Kirby said, "The United States is preparing to consider alternative options."

Iran’s hard-line daily Khorasan wrote that there is no hope in the revival of the JCPOA, adding that politicians in the West are interested in some sort of agreement with Tehran about lifting some of the sanctions in exchange for restricting Tehran's nuclear activities. However, sources noted that any miscalculation on either part might change the situation.

In the meantime, if the West does nothing, Iran will get closer to 90-percent Uranium enrichment any moment, Nameh News quoted Western sources.

Long negotiations in Vienna came to a halt in March 2022 when Iranian negotiators returned to Tehran for consultation and almost everyone in the West was hoping to reach an agreement with Tehran soon, but Iran was not forthcoming.

Meanwhile, one month into the war in Ukraine, Russian foreign minister's demand for guarantees from the US that sanctions over Ukraine would not affect its relations with Tehran outraged many in Iran. Lavrov asked for guarantees from the US, at the minimum level of Secretary of State, that US sanctions over Ukraine would not affect Russia's "right to free, fully-fledged trade and economic and investment cooperation and military-technical cooperation with Iran” under the terms of the JCPOA.

Subsequently, several Iranian analysts and opposition politicians blamed Russia for the suspension of the talks in Vienna. One of those commentators was the former chief of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Relations Committee Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh who accused Russia of following its own interests and damaging Iran's possible benefits in an agreement.

In an interview with Khabar Online published on Sunday, January 29, Falahatpisheh said that he even fears a Russian scenario to start a war between Iran and another country to distract the West from what is happening in Ukraine and reduce pressures on Moscow.

He said no one in the government responded to his suggestions for leaving the Ukraine war in a bid to revive the JCPOA. He added that currently, those who always opposed the West in Tehran are sending messages to the West calling for the revival of the deal but no one in the West seems to be interested.

Falahatpisheh reiterated that Iran's interests may have been sacrificed for the interests of others [Russia].He added that there are looming geopolitical threats against Iran and even Europe has plans against Tehran. He was possibly referring to the idea of listing the IRGC as a terrorist organization.

The former lawmaker, who is traditional conservative critical of hardliners, said that Iran, Europe and the United States had reached a consensus on the text of an agreement before Russia disrupted the talks by demanding guarantees from Washington. Falahatpisheh added that a consensus against Iran would have not been formed in Europe if Tehran had not sent drones to Russia to be used in the war against Ukraine.

It is in this situation that the Financial Times says an interim agreement with Iran could save Tehran from troubles. The FT quoted Ellie Geranmayeh an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations as saying "“The Iranians are not pushing for a deal. They understand even if there’s an agreement that provides sanctions relief, it’s going to be minimal, so it’s become even harder for anyone to stick their neck out for a deal.” According to the FT, one option for Iran would be to seek an interim agreement that keeps Tehran's nuclear ambitions under control while at the same time offers limited sanction relief to Tehran.

Under pressures from protests and a chronic economic crisis that has reached its worst stages during the past year, an Iranian government which plans to sell out state assets to make ends meet, might be ready this time to take any agreement that is thrown at it, interim or otherwise.

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who was speaking at a joint press conference with his Qatari counterpart Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani on Sunday in Tehran, did not provide further details, but the Qatari top diplomat said that the message was from the US.

“Qatar has been always passing on messages about the return of the JCPOA parties to their commitments. Today, we received JCPOA-related messages from the Qatari side,” Amir-Abdollahian stated, referring to the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Meanwhile, the Iranian news agencies quoted the Qatari official as saying that "the Americans gave us a message to convey to Iran, which is related to the issue of the agreement, although it may not be directly related to it."

Qatari foreign minister also urged all parties to return to the agreement.

Talks to revive the JCPOA reached a deadlock last September after 18 months of negotiations.

These statements come as US officials have repeatedly stated that their focus is not on the JCPOA negotiations any longer, but Washington is rather focused on the Islamic Republic’s suppression of its people and Tehran’s military support for Russia in the invasion of Ukraine.

The European parties to the JCPOA have also expressed a similar view, with Germany saying that "Berlin's main focus is on supporting the protest movement in Iran."

Speaking to i24News on Thursday, Marom was asked when the right time is to attack Iran’s nuclear installations.

"In my understanding, I think Israel has to attack, because the situation right now is that Iran is a threshold country - 100 percent," he replied.

The former vie-admiral said that although Iran is currently enriching uranium to 60 percent, it can quickly increase enrichment to above 90 percent, which is necessary for a nuclear bomb. He added, “the moment to jump from threshold to holding nuclear weapons will be very, very short… and therefore I think the time to attack… the clock is ticking, and we will have to do it sooner rather than later, sooner it means in the upcoming year."

Negotiation to re-establish limitations on Iran’s nuclear program are in limbo and Tehran has gone beyond the previous limit on enrichment that existed under the 2015 nuclear deal known as the JCPOA.

Israeli leaders have been warning that they will resort to a military attack to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb, although experts believe that would be a difficult task if Israel tries to do it alone.

The United States conducted large-scale military drills with Israel this week, with some saying that the exercise was meant to be a message to the Islamic Republic.

In a face-to-face with our correspondent Arash Alaei, Dennis Ross said that the Islamic Republic has lost its chance to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with making extra demands, noting that now the only move that may kickstart the talks is a halt in Tehran’s uranium enrichment to over five-percent purity. 

Iran should not be enriching to 60 percent or even 20 percent, he said, adding that the Islamic Republic is crossing thresholds that may push the Biden administration to a path that it would not like to pursue, he said. The Biden administration might say “what was on the table is no longer on the table. You had a chance to do the JCPOA and you chose to try to get more,” he added. 

He said that the administration sought a longer and stronger deal since the beginning, speculating that if they want to agree on a deal, it will not be going back to the JCPOA. “The deal has to apply for much longer; it has to be stronger, then there would be readiness to talk about a deal,” he said, foreseeing that Washington would ask Tehran to give up more if it wants to potentially get more.

Ross was the director of policy planning in the State Department under President George H. W. Bush, the special Middle East coordinator under President Bill Clinton, and a special adviser for the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia -- which includes Iran -- to the former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. 

Referring to the recent round of Western sanctions on the Islamic Republic officials, Ross said that this is a message to Tehran that “we are collectively hardening our approach because of the behavior of the Iranian regime.” He added that slapping the Revolutionary Guard with the terrorism label by the Europeans has never been really considered. Ross mentioned the coordination among the US and its allies to close the loopholes so that Iran cannot sell its oil as another measure that showed the world is standing against the regime.

All of these indicate that “the Islamic Regime needs to understand that life is going to become more difficult for them if they stay in the path they are on,” he underlined. 

The West on Monday stepped up pressure on Iran over its crackdown on protests and arms supply for the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the US, the European Union and United Kingdom imposed fresh sanctions on Tehran. However, the EU stopped short of designating the IRGC a terrorist outfit, as the European Parliament had voted last week to urge the block to do.

He said that the regime is enriching uranium to the levels that have no civilian use, elaborating that Iran “continues to move ahead with its nuclear program. It has 16 cascades of advanced centrifuges – the IR6s -- that are enriching to 60 percent, for which there is no justifiable civilian purpose.” “When you enrich uranium, you can rationalize it saying we’re going to use it to generate electrical power. When you enrich to 60 percent, you have one purpose in mind.” 

The Islamic Republic “has probably four bombs worth of enriched material to 60 percent,” adding that “60 percent is not weapons grade but it’s close to weapons grade,” Ross said. It means it takes very little time for them to turn the fissile material into bombs, he added. “You still have to take that fissile material and take it to weapons. There is a big difference between enrichment, which is taking place in large facilities and the process of weaponization, which can be taking place in facilities that we wouldn’t be aware of,” Ross warned. 

The Middle East expert believes that Iranians are playing with fire. If the Biden administration says, “we will prevent you from having a nuclear weapon, they are pushing the Biden administration towards what will be a military action, even if that's not what the Biden administration would prefer to do.” 

About the joint military war games by the US and Israel -- their biggest so far with thousands of forces, a dozen ships, and 142 aircraft, including nuclear-capable bombers – he said the nature of this maneuver is unprecedented as they have integrated every domain. “They are doing it in space, they are doing it in air with aircraft, they are doing it in cyber, they are doing it on the ground, and they are doing it with naval. All these separate domains, all these separate forces are being integrated between the two and they include suppression of air defenses; it includes B52 bombers,” he added. The scope of such war games “involves a kind of action the US and Israel would be taking if there was a decision to carry out the use of force against Iran’s nuclear program.” He described the drills as a rehearsal or preparation for such an action against Iran, he highlighted.