Open Demand For Regime Change Marks Iran Protests
Iranian pundits increasingly point out that unlike previous protests driven by economic or electoral grievances, the current uprising demands regime change.
Iranian pundits increasingly point out that unlike previous protests driven by economic or electoral grievances, the current uprising demands regime change.
Reformist analyst Abbas Abdi openly said in an interview in Tehran that protests in 2009 did not call for regime change, but "the demand of current protesters is to change the regime. They do not know what will happen next, but they believe whatever that might take place will be better than the current situation."
Abdi said some of the characteristics of the current protests are that "They are deep-rooted, have taken the government by surprise, they have been continuing for a long time, and have gone further, in a way that it is impossible to return to the situation as it was before."
Abdi said that another characteristic of the movement is that the people have behaved in a way during the past 10 weeks that they can no longer retreat. They have challenged the core of the regime and Supreme Leader Ali khamenei.
He added that the main question is not, as some officials charge, that foreigners have instigated the protests. Even if we suppose that is true, it is not important who started the movement. “What is important is that it is taking place in Iran."
Abdi stressed that, "This is not a riot. This is a protest that was predicted long ago. The reason why it did not quickly follow the 2019 protests, was the coronavirus pandemic."
He added that the government was taken by surprise because it never pays attention to society. It is always watching other countries. All these youngsters in the streets have been in classrooms where teachers and headmasters have been in close contact with them. How could have they not noticed that something was going on? The reason they did not see it, is that no one in the government wishes to really see the society, even now when it is in turmoil. Even the intelligence organizations found out about the movement after they arrested the protesters."
Abdi said this comes while young people were not acting secretly. They even showed off what they are doing. He explained that generation Z is only the driving force of the movement. The other part, which is important but neglected is the silent majority that follows the movement. He said that many opinion polls the government did not allow to be published indicate that some 60 to 80 percent of the population support the youngsters in the streets although they may not be as vocal.
Abdi's interview coincided with the publication of an interview with Iranian American sociologist Asef Bayat with Rouydad24 news website in Iran. Bayat is the author of books such as Revolution without Revolutionaries, Street Politics, and Global Middle East, whose observations about the Arab Spring are widely acclaimed in the US academic and political circles.
He said in the interview that it is in the nature of the street that a common cause can turn a gathering of 500 individuals into a massive rally of several thousand people.
Speaking about the current Iran protests and the violence and suppression that have been going on in the streets during the past 10 weeks, Bayat said: "People do not like to be on the streets. They want to live peacefully. The reason why people take to the streets is that politics stops working. Politics means an institutional mechanism to settle political, social and economic disputes and reach a democratic agreement. When the government cannot do that and does not allow the people to have their representatives in the government, citizens tend to take part in strikes or refuse to go to classrooms. But some citizens such as those who do not have a job might take to the streets to voice their demands and to show their social power."
He went on to say, "Authoritarian governments do not tolerate protesters presence in the streets because they do not want the people to believe in their collective social force."
Azar Mansouri, the secretary general of Unity of the Nation Party, a coalition of so-called reformists, was quoted by a local media outlet that she and others were invited by national security council secretary Shamkhani to a meeting Sunday. She did not name the other participants, but it is safe to assume many were also reformist politicians.
Mansouri said that she urged Shamkhani to start short-, medium- and long-term reforms in governance,” first by releasing all protesters who have been detained since September, followed by constitutional changes through a “founding assembly”, as a path to emerge from the current political crisis.
The female politician also demanded a policy that would end sanctions against Iran and would help end the current economic crisis, that she said could bring “40 million people” to the streets.
The Islamic Republic leaders should first acknowledge their mistakes and “bridge gaps with the people” by listening to their grievances, Mansouri told Shamkhani.
Hardliners in charge of Iran’s ruling institutions have said time and again that there could be no constitutional changes and no “retreat from principles.” Raising the specter of constitutional change and forming a potentially unpredictable assembly will certainly be viewed by regime hardliners as a challenge to the principle of having a Supreme Leader and the person of Ali Khamenei.
Iran’s reformists are blamed by regime opponents for long pursuing the idea that the Islamic Republic can be reformed and thus giving false hope to the people. Some reformists in the past two months have acknowledged that their thinking has proven wrong, as the extent of deadly violence and untold cruelties against protesters has proven the regime incapable of reforming itself.
In fact, young protesters see little difference between regime hardliners and reformists who want to make incremental changes but keep the Islamic Republic. All slogans and announcements by protesters demand an end to clerical rule.
But according to her own account, Mansouri seems to have also said things that would be annoying to the regime. First, she upheld the memory of all those who were killed during protests since September. She also told Shamkhani that if the regime wants to hold talks with politicians as an attempt at window dressing and as a tool, the whole idea is bound to fail. Discussions to solve the political crisis should be based on “strategic rationality.”
But she was also cautious in her approach by not mentioning the absolute power Khamenei exercises or raise the issue of holding those who are responsible for the killing of hundreds of civilians responsible.
She also did not demand an immediate end to mandatory hijab, and just reminded Shamkhani that having a ‘morality police’ is a bad idea. The issue of systemic discrimination against women, she said, is an issue to be addressed in the long term.
However, she told the top security chief that Iranian women are asking “What has the Islamic society accomplished that would make us proud to use its hijab?”
Despite these remarks, many would still see reformists meeting with security officials as a non-starter, because they believe that now the regime finds itself in deep trouble and wants to save the situation. If protests end and the pressure is lifted, all talk of reform and gestures of pluralism will also end and the clerical-military rulers will go back to what they know best, monopolizing power by relying on force.