Iranian Paper Says Animation Showing Trump's Killing Scared The US

Iran’s Council of Ministers approved the opening of a Chinese consulate in Bandar-Abbas, Iran’s most significant trading and military port on December 29th, 2021—China’s first consulate in Iran. Mohammad Keshavarzzadeh, the Iranian ambassador in Beijing, said “the opening of China’s consulate general in Iran’s southern port city of Bandar-Abbas will greatly contribute to the development of trade between the two countries.”

While at face value this may seem like a benign partnership between two developing countries, it might have far-reaching significance for Iran and the region.

Bandar-Abbas is in the Strait of Hormuz—the slender channel connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. On the north coast of the Strait of Hormuz lies Bandar-Abbas, and on the south coast, just 55 km across the shore, the Arabian Peninsula. According to The New York Times, twenty percent of all oil shipped globally passes through these waters, making it one of the world’s most strategic chokepoints, as it also has key military, economic, and political importance to the Middle East.

The new Chinese consulate in Bandar-Abbas will share its home with The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ main naval base. Iran’s invitation of an emerging global superpower into their backyard could pose a threat to Iran, should regional disputes one day arise.China has already “attempted to claim more internal waters, territorial sea, exclusive economic zone, and continental shelf than it is entitled under international law.” says Commander Reann Mommsen, a spokeswoman for the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet. She describes China’s territorial claims as “excessive,” regarding the Paracel Islands, which are claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam.

In addition to opening the new consulate, according to a recently leaked 25-year ‘Cooperation Program’ between China and Iran—both countries under economic sanctions by the United States and the western world—China is investing in Iran’s cybersecurity, infrastructure, and energy sectors.

According to DW News, “China, the world'slargest public lender to developing countries, imposes unique conditions on borrowing nations which could be giving Beijing undue influence over their economic and foreign policies, according to a study from Germany's Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).”

Mohammad-Hossein Malaek, former Iranian ambassador to China, told the Iranian Labor News Agency that Beijing is anticipating a leading role in developing the Makran region, the Southern coastal strip of Sistan-Baluchistan province, in Iran. Makran lies to the East of Bandar-Abbas. The move would create a clear geographical link from infrastructure developments China has made to gain regional influence in the South China Sea and would allow said influence deeper into the heart of the Middle East.

Beijing has already achieved an agreement with Pakistan to invest billions of dollars over the next 40 years to develop the Gwadar Port. When taken together, developing both this geographical point in Pakistan and the one in Bandar-Abbas creates a “trade and energy corridor stretching from the Persian Gulf, across Pakistan, into western Xinjiang.”

The move comes as China is competing with India for influence in the region, as both nations make efforts to become eminent world powers. India has made similar investments in Iran’s Chabahar port. Unlike China, however, India does not have a global strategy like China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI, originally named, “One Belt, One Road,” is an international development strategy adopted by the Chinese government as China looks to expand its influence worldwide by improving trade routes. As of December 2021, China has expanded its’ BRI—which includes infrastructure developments across land corridors, in ports, across maritime routes, as well as over-land links (bridges, tunnels, etc.)—into 142 countries.Developing diplomatic relations with Iran is crucial to China’s ability to implement the BRI.

“Some believe China engages in ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ through the BRI, ensnaring developing countries with debt dependence and then translating that dependence into geopolitical influence,” says Paul Haenle, former U.S. government adviser and director at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, a joint U.S.-China research center based in Beijing.

To vividly illustrate what that looks like in practice, Haenle explains, “China acquired 99 years of operating rights for the Hambantota Port in southern Sri Lanka after costs for the project spiraled out of control, forcing the leaders in Colombo [Sri Lanka’s capital] to give up control of the port in return for a Chinese bailout.”

Despite Yi’s claims, the Cooperation Program comes hot off the heels of the US leaving a power vacuum in the Middle East after its withdrawal from Afghanistan, and an open shift in focus to the Asia-Pacific. The alliance between the US’ biggest economic rival, China, and their biggest antagonist in the Middle East, Iran, further weakens US’ foothold in the Middle East and undermines The United States’ interests in the region.

The 25-year Iran-China Cooperation Program comes at a time when US-Iran tensions are high, and relations strained. Following the United States’ killing of Quds Forces Commander, Qasem Soleimani, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, vowed to deal America a “reciprocal blow.” Iran’s cooperation with China could well be a reaction to its bad relations with the US and not a calculated strategic move on Teheran’s part. Nevertheless, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi says, “the China-Iran Cooperation Program does not target any country.”

Despite ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions introduced against Iran in 2018 by the US, Iran’s value of non-oil trade exchanges with China stood over $19 billion between March 2020 and March 2021. China is currently Iran’s top trading partner. However, out of the two, China alone has enjoyed a favorable trade partnership, while Iran has been isolated internationally by essentially only being able to trade with China, forcing Iran to trade its oil reserves at much lower prices than it would otherwise like, although no official figures are available.

To make matters worse for Iran, Beijing maintains good political and economic relationships with Saudi Arabia, Iran’s primary regional adversary. China is also Saudi Arabia’s top economic trading partner, and the biggest importer of Saudi oil. Unlike Saudi Arabia, however, China pays Iran below fair market rates per barrel, while the Saudis are given fair market prices. US intelligence officials have seen evidence of “multiple large-scale transfers” of sensitive ballistic missile technology being shipped from China to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is benefiting from having bilateral relations with the US and China, while Iran is getting raked over the coals by China alone, which is also enabling the military capabilities of Iran’s biggest regional rival.

The only shipments currently taking place between China and Iran are oil deliveries, from Iran to China, made at Iran’s expense—the compensation for which is being held as frozen assets by China (some estimate this is up to $20B). The only way Iran can get their undervalued payment for the oil is by purchasing Chinese goods and services. Additionally, any goods and services related to China’s BRI used or provided within Iran are required to use Chinese companies and labor, thus precluding Iran’s own people and companies’ ability to make any economic gain whatsoever during the BRI’s implementation.

A large majority of the 142 BRI partners are low- to middle-income developing countries. Poor nations make up 48% of the BRI partners, and high-income partners make up only 23%.

Although it is hard to say how China will enforce future cases of defaults on debt, the ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions currently in effect against Iran make it more likely they might default on a Chinese loan. Based on what China has done in Sri Lanka, it is not unreasonable that China would similarly try to take control of Bandar-Abbas, should Iran fall short on its’ loan obligations. If Iran had stronger diplomatic relationships with the West, it could keep China in check. However, Beijing’s critics argue China might swap debt for resources or diplomatic rights and/or obligations at later dates. The Middle East is home to several unstable governments, isolated by the West, and desperately in need of foreign investment, but at what cost?

In an interview with Fox News Friday, Pompeo drew attention to an animation video published on the official website of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei showing a man targeting former President Donald Trump playing golf.

Pompeo said, “I have seen a little clip of a video where they are threatening to kill President Trump and myself, and yet we have negotiators sitting at the table in Vienna.”

The White House warned Iran on Sunday [Jan. 9] after numerous threats by Islamic Republic officials to take revenge from American and Israeli officials they hold responsible for the targeted killing of Iranian operative Qasem Soleimani in January 2020.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Iran will face severe consequences if it attacks any Americans, but negotiations to revive the Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran continue in Vienna.

Days after the warning, Iraqi militias fired rockets at Baghdad’s Green Zone and the US embassy late on Thursday.

On Soleimani’s killing Pompeo said, “We kept Americans safe. Today we have negotiators with the Iranians willing to give them money, resources, power tools to continue to build their terror network. It is an enormous mistake.”

If the talks in Vienna succeed, the United States will lift most economic sanctions imposed by Trump in 2018 when he withdrew from the nuclear agreement arguing that it was a weak deal, which would not stop Tehran form acquiring nuclear weapons in the future.

“I can't figure out why we're in Vienna negotiating with an Iranian regime attacking diplomats in Baghdad and threatening senior officials,” Pompeo, who has always expressed a hardline position toward the Islamic Republic, asked.

The Fox News reporter asked Pompeo what he thinks about the Biden Administration spokesperson Jen Psaki blaming the nuclear standoff with Iran on Trump’s decision to pull out of the JCPOA.

“She's living in a fantasy world disconnected from the real world that was the JCPOA,” the former secretary of state said, and added, “It created a clear path for a nuclear weapon and an entire program of nuclear weapons that the Iranians would have had possession.”

Pompeo continued with the argument that the Trump administration made the right decision to pull out of the agreement and given four more years, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would capitulate and sign a new agreement which would ban Iran “from enriching uranium and

threatening Israel and the United States.”

The Biden Administration argues that Trump’s sanctions did not have the desired effect and pushed Iran to increase its uranium enrichment and malign activities in the region.

In reality, both are right in a sense, but there are two issues. First, is the dimension of time. If US sanctions were kept in place and enforced, Iran’s current economic crisis could force it to negotiate even with a second Trump administration. But in less than three years from mid-2018 to January 2021, Tehran resisted and refused to negotiate with Washington.

Second, Iran’s dangerous expansion of uranium enrichment accelerated after President Joe Biden said he wanted to revive the nuclear agreement and lift sanctions. Also, the Biden administration has not enforced sanctions strictly and China sensing a weakness has doubled its illicit oil imports from Tehran, helping it to adopt a tough position in Vienna.

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian arrived in China at the head of a high-ranking delegation at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Friday.

The pace of expanding bilateral ties has been accelerating during the administration of President Ebrahim Raisi as the governments of Iran and China “have made very good progress in various issues in line with the interests of both sides”, Amir-Abdollahian said.

After meeting with the Chinses foreign minister in the city of Wuxi in the eastern province of Jiangsu, the visiting Iranian diplomat tweeted in Chinese, saying that they discussed a wide range of topics such as the 25-year comprehensive cooperation plan and the Vienna talks to revive the 2915 nuclear deal.

Noting that Iran and China are in the 50th year of their diplomatic ties, Amir-Abdollahian expressed hope that the relationship between the two countries will leap forward in the new era.

Tehran and Beijing have signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement and Iran is hoping to get Chinese investments and more diplomatic support. However, Beijing so far has not seriously challenged US sanctions, as it has cultivated closer ties with the Gulf Arab countries and Israel.

Anders Henriksen, head of counterintelligence at the Danish Security and Intelligence Service, said in a report on Thursday that "The threat from foreign intelligence activities against Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands has increased in recent years.”

Copenhagen handles most of the security matters of Greenland and the Faroe Islands, which are sovereign territories under the Kingdom of Denmark as many countries are trying to get access to natural resources, sea lanes, research and militarily strategic areas in the Arctic region.

He added that Denmark's active international role as a NATO member, the openness of its society as well as technological prowess has made it "an attractive target of foreign intelligence activities" including from Iran, China and Russia.

The report said these foreign intelligence services were trying to make contact with students, researchers and companies to get formation about the Danish technology and research.

On Wednesday, the US military officially confirmed that Iran's intelligence ministry is connected to the cyber espionage group MuddyWater that steals data from computer networks around the world.

The precise amount of capital leaving Iran is very difficult to calculate but it can be deducted from the official data on net capital account deficit.

The amount of capital lost during the first six months of the current Iranian calendar year equals the entire twelve months of the previous year when capital flight amounted to around $6.3 billion, Fararu website wrote Thursday. This is a significant amount for Iran that struggles to sell oil and earn dollars amid US sanctions.

The report said Central Bank of Iran (CBI) figures indicate that Iranians were not reassured about the safety of their investments even when officials of the new government said it intended to resume the Vienna talks to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The talks that began in April under moderate President Hassan Rouhani were halted immediately after hardline Ebrahim Raisi was elected president on June 20.

According to official figures, Iran's net capital account balance was positive from 2001 to 2005 when there was foreign investment. But in the following years, except in 2014, the balance has been in the negative. Foreign investment in Iran in 2020 was around $1.35 billion.

In October the conservative Farhikhtegan newspaper said central bank’s statistics indicated that since 2005 Iran had lost around $170 billion in capital while foreign investment also dropped significantly due to various sanctions during the same period. The highest capital drain during this period, according to the CBI, amounted to over $19 billion in 2017, followed by $16 billion in 2018.

The hard currency outflow from the country is invested in various ways including in property, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, or establishment of companies abroad. Investment in neighboring countries is particularly popular.

According to the parliament's research center lack of trust in the future of the country, corruption and social restrictions are factors encouraging people to send their capital abroadoften using hidden methods and middlemen, that might hide even more capital transfers from the country.

The main mechanism used by investors to circumvent government controls over transfering hard currency abroad is through the unofficial. In January 2015, former Vice-President Es'hagh Jahangiri accused the government of hardline Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2013) of moving over $22 billion of oil revenues to Turkey and the UAE through this system within a period of eighteen months under the pretext of controlling forex rates.

One of the indications of capital flight from Iran is the popularity of property acquisition in neighboring countries such as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Georgia which often goes hand in hand with business investments.

Iranians have been among the top foreign property buyers in Turkey where with investing $250,000 which can help them acquire Turkish citizenship, establish businesses, and engage in international trade without the fear of US sanctions. Iranians have established over 4,000 companies in Turkey between 2013 and 2021 which according to Farhikhtegan can amount to around $3 billion in investment. The same goes with the UAE where over half a million Iranians live and thousands of Iranian businesses are based.

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, with purchasing over 3,000 homes during the first seven months of 2020, Iranians were the biggest foreign investors in the Turkish real estate market. The previous year, before the pandemic began, the number of properties purchased by Iranians was even higher at nearly 5,500. A senior lawmaker said in Octoberthat Iranians had bought $7 billion of real estate in Turkey in three years.