Iran's Conservatives Ponder Their Future As Raisi Stumbles
Some of Iran's conservatives are said to be thinking of distancing themselves from President Ebrahim Raisi to guarantee their electability in future elections.
Some of Iran's conservatives are said to be thinking of distancing themselves from President Ebrahim Raisi to guarantee their electability in future elections.
Iran's conservatives who call themselves "Principlists" formed a coalition with Raisi in June and helped him win the presidential election. At least three rival conservative candidates have now major posts in the government: Vice President Mohsen Rezaei, martyrs Foundation Chief Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi and Mayor of Tehran Alireza Zakani. Nonetheless, Raisi insists that he was an independent candidate.
Now, most of the criticism by conservatives who are not part of the administration is about Raisi's ministerial cabinet choices. Many, particularly those in the parliament have lashed out at Raisi for nepotism and giving key jobs to well-connected individuals with little or no qualifications.
Other conservatives argue that six months is not long enough time for passing judgement on Raisi and his ministers' performance. However, eye-catching shortcomings in his performance and his failure to carry out some of his promises, have prompted many conservatives to believe that their support for Raisi may damage their reputation.
Raisi’s worst intractable problem is controlling runaway inflation that is impoverishing millions of working-class citizens. He made lofty promises during his campaign, but independent observers knew that without an agreement with the United States and lifting of sanctions, Iran had no chance to resolve its economic crisis even partially.
Rasoul Salimi a journalist at Khabar Online, a moderate conservative website has observed, that Raisi’s weak performance has left Iran's conservatives with three choices - "unconditionally supporting" Raisi, lending some kind of "critical support" to the president, or changing their position from supporters of Raisi and his team to their "critics."
According to Salimi, making this choice is particularly important because once Raisi's failure is established and dissatisfaction over his administration's performance becomes widespread, it will be extremely difficult for conservatives to deny their support for the winner of the June election. They supported Raisi because they thought he can solve the country's economic problems having a conservative parliament, judiciary and military behind him.
It was a coalition of four political forces including the right-wing Society of Combatant Clerics, the young conservatives who had won the 2020 parliamentary elections, the former supporters of populist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the entire fleet of conservative media in Iran risked their credibility when they joined hands to send Raisi to the Presidential Office.
All of these groups have already risked their voter base and have occasionally come under attack by their young supporters who think they have been misled to support a president and an administration that are not competent enough and at times have caused embarrassment.
The frustration by young conservatives became apparent during a ceremony at a university earlier this month, when a leader of an Islamist student group harshly criticized Raisi in his presence, saying he is not a freely-elected president.
“We are speaking to you not as a president elected with the free vote of the people in a free election. We are speaking to you as a representative of the ruling system,” the student lamented.
In an article headlined "Just One Wrong Move," the English-language newspaper splashed on its front page a map of purported missile targets in Israel. "An intensification of the Israeli military threats against Iran seems to suggest that the Zionist regime has forgotten that Iran is more than capable of hitting them from anywhere," the state-owned newspaper observed.
Tehran Times responded specifically to a Washington Post report, picked up by Israel's Yedioth Ahronot Tuesday, that Israel’s June 8 air strike on Syria had been “a direct message” to Iran. Yedioth Ahronot claimed Israel was now demanding that the US seek a complete end to Iran's ballistic missile capacity.
Tehran Times quoted Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran’s armed forces, that Iran did not underestimate the threat. "At the strategic level, we do not intend to strike anyone,” he said, “but at the operational and tactical level we are ready for a decisive response, and a quick and tough offensive against the enemy.”
The article concluded with a quotation from a 2013 speech by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. "They are threatening to strike militarily, but I think they know it, and if they do not know it, they must know that if they make a mistake, the Islamic Republic will destroy Tel Aviv and Haifa.”
IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency Wednesday ran an article on equipping Iranian fighter jets with cruise missiles, thought to be the Hoveizeh, allegedly with a 1500km range. Headlined "Sharp Blade of Iran's Fencer [Sukhois] on Israel's Neck,” the piece rehashed a plan announced in 2018 to fit ageing Russian-made Sukhoi-22 and Sukhoi-24 jets with Cruise missiles.
There is no independent confirmation of Iran's claim about fitting the warplanes with a Russian-copy cruise missile. The announcement could have been made amid nuclear talks and Israeli threats.
This time Tasnim splashed a map showing the possible range of Iran's airplane-launched cruise missiles, all the way to Europe.
Israeli media say Defense Minister Benny Gantz on Thursday presented a timeline for attacking Iran to American officials. According to the Jerusalem Post, Gantz met no opposition. Israeli media have claimed planning is intensifying, as talks in Vienna continue with the aim of reviving Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal, with the aim of decisively curbing not just Tehran's atomic program but its missile defense.
The New York Times Saturday claimed Israel had consulted with the US on two previous occasions before launching attacks, the attack on June 23 against a centrifuge-parts manufacturing facility near Karaj and an explosion on September 26 at a Revolutionary Guards facility to the west of Tehran that killed two.
Iran subsequently restricted access to the Karaj site by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as it reviewed security. The IAEA announced Wednesday Tehran had agreed to allow agency inspectors to service monitoring equipment at the site.