Iran Police Clamps Down On Traders As Currency Falls

The budget bill for the next Iranian year, which starts on March 21, includes eight trillion rials for the Revolutionary Guard's Aerospace Command, as well as additional budgets to other organizations that contribute to the program.

The 8-trillion rial funding is a modest $35 million if calculated at current business exchange rates, but it is a large sum when most of it is spent in Iran, where salaries and equipment is much cheaper.

This is in contrast to last year's budget in which Rouhani had allocated only 390 billion rials to the Space Organization affiliated with the Ministry of Communication and 280 million rials to the ministry itself to spend on expanding infrastructure. This clearly shows the two government's approaches to boosting the space program.

So far there is no news of the imminent satellite launch foreign media and space monitoring agencies have been talking about during recent days. However, members of the Higher Council for Aerospace Activities have met recently after 11 years, and activities monitored around Iran's launching pads in Semnan area in central Iran indicate that a launch will probably take place.

President Raisi has said that the meeting is indicative of the high priority his government attaches to the space program. Others attending the meeting included General Amir Hajizadeh the commander of the IRGC's Aerospace Force and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.

During the past decade Iran has launched several satellites into space but their journeys in the outer space did not last long. In 2003, one of the Iranian satellites even carried an ape but no one believed the animal Iran showed as the one returning to earth was the same monkey.

Observers outside Iran have charged that Iran's space program is a cover to justify its testing of ballistic missiles. Israel and the United States have said that Iran's space program is against a UN decision saying Iranian missiles should not have nuclear weapons capability.

The activities monitored in the central Iranian desert are similar to preparations made ahead of missile and satellite launches coinciding with nuclear negotiations. There were criticisms in the past that such moves were meant to sabotage any rapprochement between Iran and the West.

After the 2015 nuclear deal, the IRGC launched missiles with Hebrew slogans written on them calling for wiping Israel off the map. The difference this time is that those who are negotiating and those who launch the missiles are not each other's political rivals. They both come from the heart of Iran's hardliner conservative camp.

While monitoring agencies and foreign entities are closely following the moves on the ground, Iran has not been concealing its ambitions in space. Raisi visited a space technology exhibition in Tehran on November 26 and asked officials to work on reaching the 36,000 km orbit around the earth in four years.

The likely blast off at Iran's Imam Khomeini Spaceport comes as Iranian state media has offered a list of upcoming planned satellite launches in the works for the Islamic Republic's civilian space program, which has been beset by a series of failed launches.

While missile and satellite launches in the previous years might had been aimed at disrupting negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, this time it appears that Iranian officials are mainly about to show off Tehran's technological progress and highlight the country's ballistic missile capabilities possibly to scare regional players.

After strong reaction to an interview in Didban-e Iran website Friday, Kazem Mousavi said Tuesday his remarks had been distorted and that scarce foreign currency was needed for importing food and other badly-needed goods.

But in the earlier interview Mousavi had not just defended the import bans for economic reasons. The hardline cleric had also said that musical instruments should not be allowed in an Islamic country. It is not clear at all what was the religious source for making such a claim about sunglasses, as many Islamic Republic officials have been seen outdoors wearing sunglasses.

The problem of clerics making up rules as they go along is a source of tensions in Iran. The Quran is often very general on issues of lifestyle, but clerics, especially of the hardline variety, make their own interpretations which they impose on society using their political power in the government.

Mousavi noted that anyone who desired a different lifestyle should leave Iran. The parliament member was criticized on air by Mohamad Delavari, a popular and outspoken presenter on state television (IRIB). "Who has given you the right to make decisions for the people?” Delavari opined. “You have one vote to cast in the parliament. Cast your own vote and leave us to ourselves. You are in no position to decide what is in the country's interest.”

Many others in articles and social media highlighted Mousavi and his associates' interest in music and sunglasses at a time when the country grappled with much bigger problems. Social media users posted hundreds of selfies with sunglasses, holding musical instruments, or both with the hashtag "We are here and not going anywhere."

Such criticism is very rare in the highly-controlled IRIB where everyone is ideologically and politically screened for employment.

Others reminded Mousavi of the few votes he won in parliamentary elections of February 2020, when he was elected on a low turnout after the Guardian Council, the constitutional watchdog, barred several rivals.

"Do you want anyone whose back is breaking under the pressure of inflation to leave Iran too?" asked a commentary in the Asr-e Iran website Monday. "Anyone who was born inside Iran’s borders and has an Iranian birth certificate is an Iranian … Why does Mr Mousavi think he has a higher right than us?”

Despite the view of some religious fundamentalists, Iranian music continues to flourish and young people follow Western pop music.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, speaking before a closed session of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit, also said Riyadh, which has launched its own direct talks with Iran, supported resolving conflict through dialogue.

After a few rounds of talks earlier this year, there have been no new meetings between Riyadh and Tehran. Saudi officials have said that talks so far have been exploratory. Riyadh's UN envoy Abdallah Al-Mouallimi told Saudi newspaper Arab News in a video interview published on Monday that no major results had been achieved. He said Tehran was so far biding its time and playing "games" in the discussions.

Closing remarks read by GCC Secretary General Nayef al-Hajraf stressed the importance of joint efforts by Gulf states to face threats and to avoid regional and international conflicts.

"Member states of the (GCC) consider that any attack on any of them is an attack on them all, and any danger that threatens one of them is threatening them all," he said.

Saudi Arabia and non-Gulf Egypt have restored diplomatic ties with Qatar but the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have yet to do so, though Abu Dhabi has moved to mend fences.

"There are areas that will need some time, but... practical, functional (Gulf) cooperation is back on track," senior UAE official Anwar Gargash said last week.

Prince Mohammed had visited Gulf states ahead of the summit in a tour aimed at highlighting solidarity as global powers seek to revive a nuclear pact with Iran, amid deepening Gulf uncertainty about the US role in the region.

Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, concerned about Iran's nuclear ambitions, missile program and regional proxies, are engaging with Tehran to contain tension.

Iran's new, hardline president has said his foreign policy priority would be improving ties with Gulf neighbors.

But nuclear talks in Vienna aimed at restoring the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers face uncertainty, while Iran is enriching more uranium and getting closer to a nuclear breakout point.

Hajraf told Saudi TV ahead of the summit that Iran should "offer indications of good intent".

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have moved away from hawkish foreign policies that saw them wade into Yemen and lead the boycott of Qatar, to a more conciliatory approach as they vie to lure foreign investment and win over US President Joe Biden.

Abu Dhabi has moved faster to improve ties with Iran and Turkey while also re-engaging with Syria after forging relations with Israel last year.

Reporting by Reuters

In the budget draft bill presented to parliament on Sunday President Ebrahim Raisi’s government proposed a 930 trillion rial budget for Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, IRGC. Last year that number was 380 trillion rials and the year before that was 240 trillion.

The trajectory of ever higher budgets for the IRGC and other entities that directly support and defend the Islamic Republic against domestic opponents is vivid in the new draft. The fiscal year will start on March 21, 2022.

The state broadcaster, the main propaganda arm of the regime and a host of clerical entities will also receive double-digit boosts to the current budgets, while an $8-billion subsidy for imports of food and medicine will be discontinued.

In addition, the government announced that 4.5 billion euros worth of crude oil will be put at the disposal of the armed forces to sell. This means the lion’s share will go to the IRGC, which has to find middlemen and illicit ways to export the oil, giving rise to corruption.

The same scenario happened during former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency in early 2010s, when for example the police was given oil to sell to provide for its needs. In the end it came to light that nearly $200 million of oil revenue in 2012 was never returned to the country.

A businessman, Babak Zanjani, who is now in jail with the death penalty hanging over his head, was a middleman selling oil during international sanctions also in the early 2010s, who failed to pay back at least $2.7 billion. His accomplices in the government were never identified. It would have not been easy for him to embezzle such a large amount of money without insider support.

IRGC has a major role in illicit oil trade. In September 2020, Iran’s oil minister Bijan Zanganeh asked help from IRGC’s business conglomerate, Khatam al-Anbia Headquarters to help circumvent US sanctions and sell crude on international markets.

The increase in IRGC’s formal budget is only the visible part of the all-powerful military’s sources of income. Government organizations all contribute a percentage of their budget to the Revolutionary Guard, in addition to its vast economic and business empire that generates income and pays salaries of many loyalists.

Analysts often try to estimate IRGC’s budget in US dollars, a difficult task given various exchange rates applicable in Iran and determining what part of its expenses and to what extent are in dollars. For example, the current formal budget would be around $3.5 billion calculated in free-market rate, but using a government exchange rate, it comes closer to $5 billion.

Perhaps a better gauge is to look at Iran’s annual inflation rate. This year inflation hovers around 45-50 percent, but IRGC’s proposed budget jumped 2.4 times. Moreover, the government is proposing to increase salaries of its administrative and industrial workers by 10 percent, which is way below the inflation rate.

Tens of thousands of teachers protested nationwide on Monday for higher pay to keep up with a nearly 50-percent annual inflation. The state has delayed the implementation of a law that would have boosted teacher’s pay, arguing that it has no money amid US sanctions.

Foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh Monday evening said any step which leads to Israel’s presence in West Asia “is against the interests of Muslim countries and peoples in the region.”

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett made a two-day historic trip to the United Arab Emirates, the first visit by an Israeli premier as part of a blitz of regional diplomacy against the backdrop of struggling nuclear talks with Iran.

Bennett's office said the premier met Abu Dhabi's powerful Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan for some four hours, with more than half of the time spent in one-on-one talks.

Iran has started overtures to improve relations with the UAE and Saudi Arabia in recent months. Abu Dhabi’s top national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited Tehran last week after years of distance between the two countries. But Khatibzadeh condemned UAE’s decision to host Bennett. “To host the prime minister of an illegal regime…will remain in the historic memory of the Palestinians, the peoples of the region and all the freedom-lovers in the world,” he said.

Iran was discussed during the meeting although details have remained secret so far. Israel has made offers of military cooperation to the UAE and it was reported that small Arab country dangerously close to Iran across the Persian Gulf, wants to acquire the Iron Dome air defense system from Israel.

An Israeli expert on gulf affairs told AP Tuesday that the recent meeting between the Israeli prime minister and Abu Dhabi's crown prince was "very important".

Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, said the meeting "sends a strong message to the region, to the global arena as well, in the background of the talks in Vienna".

Israel has watched with concern as Iran has pushed a hard line against negotiators meeting in Vienna, at once demanding sanctions relief while accelerating its nuclear program.

Guzansky said the talks send the message "that both countries see the threat from Iran and (are) working together on this issue," even if their strategies are different.

Israel and the UAE have long shared concerns about Iran's nuclear program.

Iran says its nuclear program is meant for peaceful purposes, while Israel, which considers Iran its greatest enemy, says it will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

Bennett on Monday said he was returning home "very optimistic" from the two-day trip to the UAE.

Israel and the UAE last year signed a deal to normalize relations that was brokered by the Trump administration under the "Abraham Accords," a series of diplomatic agreements with Arab countries that also included Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.

"A new wind is blowing in the region, and I think new understanding between Israel and some of the countries in the region can be reached because of that," Guzansky said.

With reporting by AP