US Says Iran's Escalatory Nuclear Steps Will Not Give It Leverage

Hossein Marashi, the new leader of the centrist Executives of Construction party has told Etemad Online on Monday, that Iran's nuclear activities have turned into a crisis. Iran's nuclear negotiators will be waiting for orders from the top, Marashi added, meaning that it is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who makes the final decision to choose between improving the country's economy, or continuing his hardline stance.

Marashi, however, reiterated that he is not optimistic about Iran's renewed negotiations with the partners of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), due to start next week.

Stressing on the importance of returning to the nuclear deal, he added that even the ongoing water crisis is an outcome of Iran's unresolved economic crisis that, in turn, is a product of paralyzing sanctions on the country's economy.

Marashi said that negotiations over Iran's nuclear program have been continuing for about two decades and this prolonged process has done irreparable damage to the country’s development. However, he reiterated that the West has the upper hand in the negotiations and Iran needs to find a way out of the crisis through negotiations.

"We all know that the West has double standards about Iran's nuclear program. The West is a liar. However, the West is also powerful," he maintained.

Marashi added that negotiations with the West should be resumed right from the point it was suspended. The talks should have a new momentum and continue with a quick pace so that problems could be solved quickly, he said and suggested that negotiators know the economy is more important than the nuclear program, but they are not the deciders.

Meanwhile, the IRGC-linked Fars news agency wrote in a commentary on Monday that having experienced the obstacles to an agreement with Iran within the US legal and bureaucratic framework, Iran should avoid relying on US laws and regulations in any upcoming agreement over its nuclear program.

The commentary said what those regulations say is the United States' problem and Iran should not be bothered with them. The commentary suggested that the Iranian side should not attach much weight to restrictions the US Congress could apply to any possible agreement.

The commentary further said that it is now clear the American side will offer no guarantees to Iran that would ensure continued commitment to an agreement between Iran and the Biden Administration unless it is endorsed by the Senate. However, the commentary stressed that such an endorsement is highly unlikely.

Meanwhile, the commentary suggested that "none of the solutions offered for the negotiations has any chance for success," and added that it appears that "Iran should solely rely on its own negotiating power and not count on its other partners as all the parties to the JCPOA are obviously united against Iran."

Regardless of this pessimistic outlook, in an interview with proreform agency ILNA, foreign policy analyst Amir Ali Abolfath opined that in the upcoming negotiations starting on November 29, "The United States has no other way but to come up with a common understanding with Iran." He further opined that if the JCPOA is not revived the IAEA will have no safeguards about inspecting Iran's nuclear establishments meaning that Iran will no longer abide by the Non-Proliferation treaty (NPT).

Abolfath also warned that accepting the demise of the JCPOA would mean an essential change to the balance of power in the Middle East, possibly meaning that Iran will continue its nuclear program and produce nuclear weapons.

Gantz also said there must be inspections of Iran’s production facilities. Parts manufacturing is not covered by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty under which the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency inspects Iran’s nuclear plants.

Gantz told an online conference Sunday of the Israeli paper Haaretz and the University of California that he was “more optimistic than ever” given Israel’s ‘normalization’ agreements with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco.

While these Arab states claimed recognizing the Israeli state follows the Arab Peace Initiative, launched 2002, the API hinged on Israeli recognition of Palestinian rights including statehood. Gantz said the ‘Abraham Accord’ encouraged him in the face of Iran’s efforts to “export its radical ideology” and its “disrupting democratic processes and dismantling countries,” specifically in Iraq and Lebanon.

A long New York Times piece Sunday reported concern among United States intelligence officials over past and possible future Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear program.

Tehran’s ‘Build Back Better’

The officials told the Times that Iran had quickly restored damage after four

Israeli attacks, which alongside killing Tehran’s nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh had led to Iran speeding-up the program, including replacing damaged machines with more advanced ones capable of faster uranium enrichment. One official called it Tehran’s ‘Build Back Better plan,” a wry reference to a slogan of President Joe Biden.

“American officials have warned their Israeli counterparts that the repeated attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities may be tactically satisfying, but they are ultimately counterproductive,” the Times reported.

Recent meetings between US and Israel officials have led to talk of a ‘plan B’ should talks in Vienna between Iran and world powers, due to resume November 29, fail to agree steps for reviving Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

The Israeli government supported previous US president Donald Trump in leaving the JCPOA and imposing ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions on Iran, but with Biden’s commitment to JCPOA revival Israel has tempered its criticism while continuing attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The Times cited US and European officials rueing the Biden administration coming late to the talks in Vienna, three months after taking office, and noting that Biden continuing ‘maximum pressure’ had stiffened the approach of the new administration in Tehran that took office in August.

US looking for ‘other tools’

“Many of Mr Biden’s advisers are doubtful that introducing new sanctions on Iran’s leadership, its military or its oil trade − atop the 1,500 Mr. Trump imposed − would be any more successful than past efforts to pressure Iran to change course,” the Times noted.

This has left the Biden administration looking for a ‘plan B’ while wary of more Israeli attacks. Rob Malley, the White House’s Iran envoy said recently it was “in Iran’s hands to choose,” and that both Biden and secretary of state Antony Blinken had insisted that that “if diplomacy fails, we have other tools − and we will use other tools to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.”

Iran immediately rejected recent reports that the US had discussed with Israel a possible interim arrangement under which Washington would rule out punitive action against some third parties paying money owed Iran in return for Tehran freezing some aspects of its nuclear program.

The nuclear talks will resume November 29 with the US in Vienna but taking part indirectly, outside the formal meetings of remaining JCPOA signatories – China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, and the United Kingdom.

Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh in his weekly press briefing told reporters that Iran expects others also to attend the talks with “a serious will” to reach “a comprehensive and practical agreement.”

Talks aimed at restoring Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) between Iran and world powers will resume next week in Vienna after a five-month freeze by Iran.

The new government in office since August has adopted a tough position in recent weeks demanding the United States remove “all sanctions at once” and provide guarantees not leave the agreement in the future.

Former President Donald Trump abandoned the JCPOA in 2018 and imposed fresh sanctions on Iran, which retaliated by increasing uranium enrichment and reducing international monitoring by the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA.

The foreign ministry spokesman refused to comment about recent media reports that the Biden Administration is entertaining the idea of an ‘interim agreement’ with Iran over the nuclear issue that would likely involve freeing some of Tehran’s frozen funds in exchange for limits on its uranium enrichment. Khateebzadeh said he would not comment on “vague speculations in the media.”

Khateebzadeh also confirmed that IAEA chief Rafael Grossi will arrive in Tehran Monday night to resolve “technical issues” and urged the international agency to stay out of politics, while saying that recent limitations on IAEA’s activities are because other countries have not condemned Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Iran has not allowed the IAEA to reactivate its monitoring cameras at a facility in Karaj, near Tehran, after an apparent drone attack that Tehran blames on Israel. The facility produces centrifuge machines for uranium enrichment, that Tehran has increased to 20 and 60 percent since 2019, stockpiling more than 200 kilograms of the fissile material.

The IAEA Board of Governors is meeting this week and the French Foreign Minister Yves Le Drian called on the agency to send a strong message to Iran for its lack of cooperation with the UN watchdog. Khatibzadeh dismissed the statement as “posturing in the media” by some countries and said all the JCPOA participants should focus on removing US sanctions.

Khatibzadeh was asked by the IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency to respond to recent US statements that if the Vienna nuclear talks fail, the Biden Administration would be ready to resort to “other options”. He replied, “We have seen all the options they have and the results in Afghanistan. We don’t think they really believe what they are saying.”

Speaking in Bahrain at the annual Manama Dialogue, Eyal Hulata urged attendees to "think how much bolder and dangerous it will be with a nuclear umbrella, should Iran achieve its nuclear ambitions."

Israel considers Iran an existential threat, and has warned that it would act with military force if needed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. Tehran is set to renew nuclear talks with world powers this month, after the 2015 accord collapsed following the US withdrawal from the agreement in 2018.

Hulata also announced he'll be travelling to the United Arab Emirates later on Sunday, where Israel's energy minister is set to sign a declaration of intent with her Jordanian counterpart to build a solar field in Jordan that will provide energy to Israel, and a desalination plant to provide water to Jordan.

The Manama Dialogue takes place each year in Bahrain, a small island kingdom off the coast of Saudi Arabia that's home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet.

Report by AP

Herzog will meet with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, Prince Charles of Wales and members of parliament.

In an opinion article in The Sunday Telegraph, Herzog called on the UK to engage in “an urgent dialogue” with “the moderate nations of the Middle East...on how stop Iran” from wasting time in nuclear talks and race toward a nuclear capability.

"Iran does not want dialogue," Herzog wrote. "It is exploiting the world's willingness to negotiate to buy time. Israel cannot allow the fundamentalists of Tehran to acquire a nuclear bomb.”

Israel is skeptical about the Biden Administration policy of negotiating a revivial of the 2015 nuclear agreement, known as JCPOA, concerned that the United States will make critical concessions without permanently banning Iran from producing nuclear weapons.

Sunni Arab states in the region share Israel’s concerns and last year’s Abraham Accords were partly motivated by a common desire to forge alliances against Tehran.