Signs of Madness, Signs Of Weakness? How Trump Blinked On Iran

Iran International published on April 25 a three-hour confidential interview with Zarif meant to remain in government archives, that led to a political storm in Iran.

In the interview Zarif spoke about the interference of the military in Iran’s foreign policy, specifically referring to the role of former IRGC Quds force commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by a US drone strike in Baghdad in January 2020.

At the time, President Hassan Rouhani ordered an investigation into who had leaked the tape to Iran International, which is not allowed to have a bureau or any presence in Iran.

The Judiciary’s spokesman told local media on Tuesday that many people have been interviewed about the leak, but the case is still pending.

In the interview Zarif had also mentioned that former US secretary of state John Kerry had divulged to him, possibly in 2017, that Israel was attacking Iranian targets in Syria. The information led to Congressional questions from Kerry, who denied ever having disclosed confidential information to Zarif.

Iran Labour News Agency (ILNA) reported on Tuesday that despite Iranian government denials, Adani Ports and Logistics, the operator of Mundra port in Gujarat has put in effect a ban it had announced in October.

Indian officials announced on September 21 that they had seized nearly three tons of heroin originating from Afghanistan and shipped from Iran’s Bandar Abbas Port worth an estimated 200 billion rupees ($2.72 billion). This followed the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in mid-August.

Adani Ports and Logistics announced in October that starting November 15 it will not accept ships coming from Iranian and Pakistani ports.

ILNA expresses concern that Iran’s exports to western India will suffer because of the ban by the Mundra port operator, which has apparently not accepted a request from the Indian Customs Commissioner to reconsider its ban.

Ships from Iran can still use a government-operated port in Gujarat, but ILNA quoted Iranian merchants as saying that logistics at this port is more limited.

Ezzatollah Yousefian Molla, a hardline conservative lawmaker at the Iranian parliament (Majles), said on November 15 that there is no hope in the successful continuation of the nuclear talks.

Yousefian called on Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi to be honest with the people and tell them that he does not believe in negotiations. Meanwhile, like many other conservative lawmakers and reformist figures in Iran, he charged that Raisi and the parliament have no plan whatsoever for running the affairs of the state.

Yousefian further said that Raisi should tell the people that the country's economic situation might get even worse because “we do not want to negotiate with the West.”

"They keep telling we want to negotiate, but in 2 to 3 months from now. However, they have been saying this for 3 to 4 months now," Yousefian said. "They should tell the people honestly about their plan for negotiations. They should tell them how far the government is ready to compromise and give concessions," he added.

Iran’s economic crisis deepens by every passing day and some politicians feel they must be on the record for having warned the government.

Yousefian went on to cast doubt on the commitment of Iran’s negotiators to the concept of an agreement with the West. He argued that members of president Raisi’s foreign policy team have been telling the people for a long time that they do not believe in negotiations. “They have said the JCPOA should be laid to rest.”

Yousefian charged that the current negotiating team does not even clearly know whether they want to talk about the JCPOA or they would go further and address other issues. "Even the cabinet ministers do not know that. When they came to the Majles they even did not know each other," he said.

Meanwhile, a prominent hardline lawmaker called on Europe to stand by its commitments under the JCPOA. Mohsen Zanganeh the chairman of the Second Step of the Revolution fraction in the Majles said Europe should not wait for Iran to return to its commitments first. He said the agreement now works the other way around: First others should return to their commitments under the nuclear deal and then Iran will take reciprocal action. Zanganeh further called on Iran's negotiators to stand firm on their positions.

In another development, foreign policy analyst Amir Ali Abolfath told reporters in Tehran that "like former presidents Hassan Rouhani, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mohammad Khatami, President Ebrahim Raisi also wishes to solve Iran's problems by negotiating with the West, although there is no bright prospect for the upcoming negotiations."

To reflect the apparent anxiety within the political elite, a well-known conservative professor of economics in Tehran University and a politician, Mohammad Khoshchehreh, said in an interview on Tuesday that Raisi’s government does not have the luxury of failure and will not get a second chance to solve Iran’s economic crisis. He warned that without a clear economic plan for success, not only the government will fail but the Islamic Republic might face danger.

Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, said the Gulf state remains deeply concerned about Iran's behavior in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon.

"Despite this we have taken steps to de-escalate tensions as we have no interest in a confrontation. The whole region would pay the price of such a confrontation for decades to come," Gargash told the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate.

"I am realistic about the chances of success. It will be a slow process, but we hope that over time we can build together greater confidence between us and start to make progress towards a more sustainable and mutually beneficial status quo," he said.

Gulf states are closely watching talks between global powers and Iran to revive a 2015 nuclear pact. The UAE, along with neighbour Saudi Arabia, believe the deal was flawed for not addressing Iran's missile program and network of regional proxies.

Gargash said the UAE was working to build bridges with all countries, including those with which it has serious disagreements.

"We know that (the US) role is changing, but it is still a vital one," he said, adding that the United States remains the UAE's dominant security partner.

Report by Reuters

Iran’s Islamic revolution Guard Corp has released a video on November 13 showing the flight of the helicopter very close to the US Navy vessel. They said the incident took place on November 11.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby was pressed by reporters during his briefing on Monday about why the Essex did not take any defensive measure. Kirby refused to elaborate saying that he would not comment on engagement rules enforced by Navy commanders in charge.

"The ship's commander did what he believed was in the best interest of the ship and its crew. They have necessary means to protect themselves," Kirby maintained.

Iranian forces have harassed US forces on many occasions before in the Persian Gulf region but the Essex incident in one of the closest approaches they have made to a US vessel.

Earlier last week the US military announced that USS Essex amphibious assault warship and a Marine expeditionary force had joined the Fifth Fleet in the Sea of Oman and had conducted exercises with the British Navy.