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Man from Supreme Leader's empire takes the helm of Iran’s biggest online retailer

Hooman Abedi
Hooman Abedi

Iran International

Aug 27, 2026, 14:30 GMT+1Updated: 18:54 GMT+1
Workers at a Digikala fulfillment center in Iran process and prepare orders for delivery.
Workers at a Digikala fulfillment center in Iran process and prepare orders for delivery.

Two years ago the editor of Iran's most hardline newspaper said management of the country's biggest online retailer would "fortunately" pass to those who serve the state. It is now chaired by a former spokesman for the supreme leader's business empire.

Hojjat Niki-Maleki identifies himself on LinkedIn as chairman of Digikala Group, having joined the board as a representative of Harakat Aval, the investment arm of the mobile operator MCI. An official company filing lists him as a board member without specifying the chairmanship.

The change dates to June 10 but became public only when the formal notice was published this week, according to the Iranian technology outlet Digiato.

Niki-Maleki previously headed communications for the Execution of Imam Khomeini's Order, commonly known as Setad, a conglomerate built largely on property confiscated after the 1979 revolution, controlled by the office of the supreme leader and under US sanctions. He also spent more than four years on MCI's board.

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Hojjat Niki-Maleki

His earlier work was in hardline media. He ran Afsaran, an online platform that promoted anti-Western messaging and the authorities' concept of a cultural "soft war."

His social media history also shows an affinity with the military establishment: in January 2020 he posted a photograph of himself seated beside Qasem Soleimani, then commander of the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, on an aircraft.

"I told him I was the son of a martyr, and his respect for me doubled," he wrote, describing Soleimani embracing him at an airport. "The sweet taste of my conversation with Haj Qasem is still with me."

Hojjat’s father, Hossein Niki-Maleki, was a member of the security team aboard Iran Air Flight 655, which was shot down by the United States in 1988.

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A social media post by Hojjat Niki-Maleki shows him seated next to Qassem Soleimani on a plane.

Boycott calls

The appointment prompted calls on Persian-language social media to stop shopping at Digikala, with critics pointing to his Setad connection, his politics and his role promoting Iran's domestic Covid-19 vaccine.

"Do not buy from Digikala. This is something you can do," one user wrote on X, arguing that purchases would ultimately help finance Revolutionary Guards missiles and drones.

Another framed the appointment as part of a wider expansion of state-linked influence over the company.

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Workers handle packages at a Digikala warehouse in Iran.

Much of the criticism returned to the vaccine. Niki-Maleki worked for Setad when its pharmaceutical arm developed CovIran Barekat, the domestically produced Covid-19 vaccine that authorities promoted during the pandemic, and he repeatedly used his own accounts to publicize its production and effectiveness.

That program became politically charged after the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei barred imports of American and British vaccines in January 2021. Critics argued that relying on domestic production delayed access to sufficient doses while Iran struggled to vaccinate its population, and some hold the officials who promoted it responsible for deaths that followed, a charge they have never accepted.

"He used to come here every day two years ago and hashtag that there would soon be good news and we would make a coronavirus vaccine," one user wrote.

About 150,000 people died from the pandemic across Iran, one of the heaviest official tolls in the region. Turkey, with a population of similar size, recorded roughly 100,000. Saudi Arabia reported fewer than 10,000 and the United Arab Emirates around 2,400. What each of those countries did have was early access to Western vaccines, the ones Iran's Supreme Leader had ruled out.

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Hojjat Niki-Maleki receives a COVID-19 vaccine during a clinical trial in Iran.

A pattern, not an appointment

The reaction reflects something larger than one board seat: a sequence of events that has moved Iran's most prominent private technology company steadily closer to the state.

Digikala was founded in 2006 by the brothers Hamid and Saeid Mohammadi and grew into the country's dominant online marketplace, the most recognizable business to emerge from Iran's private technology sector.

The pressure began in the summer of 2023, when police sealed its offices after photographs circulated of female employees without compulsory hijab.

In February 2024, the judiciary filed charges over products it said insulted Islamic sanctities, after users circulated images of mugs sold on the site bearing the name Fatemeh Zahra, the daughter of the Prophet Mohammad. The company's chief executive, Masoud Tabatabai, was arrested on the order of the security prosecutor's office and released hours later pending further appearances. Pro-government vigilantes painted threatening messages on the company's building.

That same month, Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of Kayhan and Khamenei's representative at the newspaper, said management of digital companies such as Digikala and the ride-hailing platform Snapp would "fortunately" be transferred to those "who serve the state."

Negotiations over a stake in Digikala also began in that period. They concluded this spring, when Harakat Aval, MCI's venture capital arm, bought 40 percent of Digikala Group in cash, taking over the holding of the venture firm Sarava Pars along with parts of other shareholdings.

The agreed valuation was 300 trillion rials, about $146 million at current market rates, in what the company called the largest investment in the history of Iran's digital economy.

Digikala said the founders would retain 22 percent and two of five board seats, along with executive management, business strategy and the selection of senior managers, and that no single shareholder would control the company.

MCI's own ownership is the point critics return to. Iran's largest mobile operator is a subsidiary of the Telecommunication Company of Iran, privatized in 2009 in a sale to a consortium widely reported to be linked to the Revolutionary Guards.

Niki-Maleki's appointment points to a wider shift in Iran's digital economy: the steady expansion of state-linked institutions into businesses built as private enterprises – which is also why a prediction made in a hardline newspaper in 2024 reads today less like a threat than a schedule.

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Regional diplomacy tests path back to Iran-US talks

Aug 26, 2026, 21:39 GMT+1
•
Maryam Sinaiee
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Omani Foreign Minister Badr al Busaidi visited Tehran on August 25, 2026 for talks with his counterpart Abbas Araghchi.

Regional diplomacy around Iran appears to be gathering pace, with Pakistan, Oman and potentially Qatar seeking to turn an emerging agreement over the Strait of Hormuz into a path back to negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

In Tehran, the diplomatic push is already exposing divisions over what comes next.

Pragmatists see the visits as a possible route back to the Islamabad memorandum and negotiations with Washington, while hardliners portray them as an American attempt to escape the pressure Iran has created around Hormuz.

Farda News, a website close to Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, said visits by Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi and Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir shared the objective of finding a political solution to the confrontation.

But it stressed that an agreement with Oman would not itself mean reopening Hormuz.

“Tehran insists that a technical agreement with Oman does not mean returning the strait to its pre-war conditions, and that remains tied to the implementation of US commitments under the Islamabad memorandum,” it wrote.

‘American pawn’

Economic daily Donya-ye Eqtesad similarly said the phased agreement could provide a route toward reviving the Islamabad memorandum, easing pressure around the strait and eventually returning Iran and the United States to negotiations.

But hardline Kayhan called the visits a “new phase of the White House deception operation,” arguing that Washington needed Iran back at the negotiating table to escape the energy crisis and deadlock over Hormuz.

It described Munir as an “American pawn” being used to help Washington escape what it called the quagmire of the war and declared the Islamabad memorandum dead.

The competing interpretations follow an unusually concentrated burst of regional diplomacy. Al-Busaidi visited Tehran on Tuesday, a day after Munir, while Qatar’s prime minister is expected in the Iranian capital on Thursday, according to Iranian media.

Diplomatic push

Tehran and Muscat announced after al-Busaidi’s visit that they were working on a phased framework including a temporary maritime corridor through Hormuz and a joint mine-clearance project.

Technical negotiations are continuing over a permanent corridor and the future management of the strait, with the two sides stressing the importance of discussions involving other Persian Gulf states.

After leaving Tehran, al-Busaidi discussed the proposed Hormuz framework with Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani.

Qatar, another mediator between Tehran and Washington, said Tuesday that it continued to support efforts to resolve the crisis.

Former diplomat Jalal Sadatian told Fararu that Oman’s renewed activity should be understood in light of its established mediation role. He said Munir also appeared to have carried a message from Washington aimed at reducing tensions and reopening a channel for talks.

International affairs analyst Jafar Ghanadbashi went further, writing in Arman Melli that the Pakistani and Omani visits were “a very clear sign of America’s view of the current situation and its need for negotiations at this time.”

‘No rush for talks’

But Iranian officials have made clear that progress with Oman does not mean Tehran is ready to reopen the strait.

Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tuesday that Iran still considered itself to be at war and that the agreement with Oman did not amount to an immediate reopening of Hormuz.

He said reopening depended on an end to the war on all fronts, the lifting of the blockade against Iran and a resolution of the situation in Yemen.

Gharibabadi also challenged US claims about mine clearance in the strait, asking why vessels had not resumed passage if the mines had been removed. He warned that US mine-clearance vessels entering the area would be targeted.

Hossein Mohebi, a spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Wednesday that negotiations with Oman over the past month had produced mutually acceptable results concerning the two countries’ respective waters and revenues from the strait.

But he accused Washington of obstructing a final agreement and reiterated that reopening Hormuz depended on the United States returning to the Islamabad memorandum.

“If the United States does not accept our conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not open under any circumstances,” Mohebi said.

President Donald Trump said Wednesday he was “not in a hurry” to resume negotiations with Iran and had “no time schedule” for ending the war. He said both economic warfare and military strikes against Iran were effective.

The competing signals leave regional mediators with a difficult sequencing problem: whether an agreement over Hormuz can create enough room to restart diplomacy before either Tehran or Washington decides it has more to gain by waiting.

Tehran debates waiting out Trump’s economic war

Aug 26, 2026, 17:46 GMT+1
•
Behrouz Turani
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Pedestrians walk past a currency exchange near Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, as Iran faces renewed US sanctions, August 17, 2026

As Washington intensifies its economic campaign, Iranian politicians and analysts are offering sharply different prescriptions for dealing with the United States: from resistance and phased negotiations to new trade routes or waiting Donald Trump out.

The debate has sharpened since the Trump administration launched what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called an “economic onslaught” on Monday, expanding the threat of secondary sanctions as Washington seeks to sever Iran’s remaining financial links abroad.

Former Commerce Minister Yahya Al-e Eshaq has focused on one vulnerability made more acute by the pressure campaign: Iran’s heavy reliance on the United Arab Emirates as a gateway for foreign trade.

Al-e Eshaq called for diversifying trade across Iran’s 15 neighboring states and developing alternative hubs in Oman, Pakistan, Turkey and Iraq.

He cited previous studies, including one by the Supreme National Security Council, suggesting sanctions could inflict at most 30 percent damage under optimal conditions. But the immediate strains are already visible, with thousands of Iranian containers stranded in regional ports.

Others see economic resilience as only one part of the answer.

Hamzeh Safavi, an academic and pragmatist politician, argued in Etemad for a combination of stronger domestic resilience and step-by-step diplomacy.

Safavi rejected both unilateral resistance and all-or-nothing negotiations, advocating phased diplomacy and regional mediation as Iran confronts maritime tensions and growing economic isolation.

That diplomatic track remains active. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi met Abbas Araghchi in Tehran on Tuesday as Muscat continued efforts to mediate between Iran and the United States and find a way toward easing the confrontation.

The visit followed a trip to Tehran by Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, on Monday, part of a broader regional effort to keep channels between Washington and Tehran open.

That approach stands in sharp contrast to hardliners such as Resalat editor Mohammad Kazem Anbarloui, who argues that concessions to Washington would signal weakness and that mounting US pressure should instead be met with greater resistance.

Some hardliners have gone further, reviving a historical analogy from the 1979 hostage crisis: wait Trump out.

They point to Tehran’s refusal to resolve the crisis while Jimmy Carter remained president, with the American hostages ultimately released on the day Ronald Reagan was inaugurated in January 1981.

For those invoking the precedent, denying Trump a diplomatic victory and holding out for a successor could itself become a strategy.

But waiting carries its own risks. Ordinary Iranians would continue to face the economic cost, while some analysts warn that Tehran’s existing sources of leverage may weaken with time.

Former diplomat Kouroush Ahmadi, writing in Shargh, questioned whether de-escalation with the United States remains possible before the confrontation hardens into a prolonged economic war.

He argued that Iranian leverage, including pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, could face diminishing returns as governments and markets seek ways to adapt to the disruption.

His argument points to a dilemma at the center of the debate: waiting may deny Washington an immediate victory, but it could also leave Iran negotiating later with fewer effective tools.

The competing prescriptions reveal a problem deeper than disagreement over tactics. Tehran is debating whether to negotiate, escalate, diversify or wait, without an apparent consensus over which course can relieve economic pressure without appearing to capitulate to Washington.

For now, waiting may be the closest thing Iran has to a strategy.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei's absence help the Islamic Republic survive?

Aug 26, 2026, 14:19 GMT+1
•
Reza Haji Hosseini
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Since Mojtaba Khamenei was named the Islamic Republic's third supreme leader, no one has seen him or heard his voice. That looks like weakness. It is worth asking whether it might instead be postponing the system's political death.

For nearly half a century the Islamic Republic has reproduced the image of its leaders everywhere: on the walls of schools and government offices, in theatres, cinemas and concert halls, behind officials at podiums, on television screens. Visibility was not vanity. In a system built on the authority of one man, the leader had to be seen for the state to demonstrate that it existed.

Before the war with the United States and Israel, that was the rule. Now the same system publishes messages from its new leader without being able, or perhaps without wanting, to show him.

In the first weeks after his appointment by the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body that selects Iran's supreme leader, intelligence services and media inside and outside the country waited for one thing: his Nowruz address. The Persian new year, which falls around March 20, brings the leader's most closely watched speech of the year, and a video would have answered the essential questions at once. He would have been demonstrably alive, apparently well, and visibly in charge.

No video came. The absence stopped looking like a security precaution and started looking like a condition.

The record since has only deepened the ambiguity. There is no photograph, no audio, no film.

Written statements have appeared, attributed to his office rather than demonstrably from his hand. The absence of anything verifiable, no image, no voice, no signature, has weakened the official account of his health and strengthened the theory that he was gravely wounded.

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The effect on the state has been visible. Officials who held together in the first days of the war have since split over what comes next, and the fault line runs through the war-or-negotiation question: the state broadcaster has censored the government's own negotiators, while hardline outlets have claimed the leader opposed the process that produced the Islamabad agreement. Both camps invoke him. Neither can produce him.

So the question is whether any of this can work in the system's favor.

Absence as possibility

Consider what visibility would cost. If Mojtaba Khamenei appears and the marks of injury or incapacity are apparent, the Islamic Republic must concede that its leader is diminished. If his death is confirmed, the succession fight begins. If he turns out to be healthy and active, he must accept responsibility for the decisions of the past six months, including a war.

Absence suspends all three. He can be alive, wounded, incapacitated or dead, and the machinery of the state can go on issuing orders in his name.

Uncertainty, which ought to be the government's problem, becomes its instrument.

While the leader's status remains unresolved, no faction can settle the succession, and no official has the standing either to accept defeat or to wind the system up. Commanders and institutions can continue to say they take their orders from the center, a center that may exist but cannot be seen.

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    All Mojtaba's men: Old guard shapes Iran’s new order

That has a second edge, and it cuts the other way. The same fog that prevents anyone from declaring the system finished also prevents anyone from commanding it. An absent leader cannot arbitrate between the men arguing over war and diplomacy, which is very likely why they began arguing in the first place. Ambiguity buys the system time by denying it direction.

Still, on this reading, even the collapse of the state's outer structure would not necessarily be the end. A network of the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij, the intelligence services, financial channels and allied forces across the region could carry on in the name of an absent leader. What would survive, in that case, would no longer be a government. It would be an underground organization.

From state to network

The comparison that follows is about mechanics, not equivalence. The question is narrow: how does a network continue after it loses its territory or its leader disappears? On that specific question, two cases are instructive, and neither is offered as a moral parallel to a state that has governed 90 million people for nearly five decades.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the Islamic State's caliphate from a mosque in Mosul in July 2014 and did not appear on camera again for almost five years, though audio messages attributed to him continued to circulate. In that period the group lost nearly all its territory and became a network of clandestine cells. After he was killed in 2019, a US Defense Department inspector general assessment found his death had produced no immediate decisive effect on the group's operations.

  • The strange power of Iran’s absent supreme leader

    The strange power of Iran’s absent supreme leader

Osama bin Laden spent almost a decade in hiding while releasing video and audio messages. His evasion of capture became, for his followers, evidence of invulnerability. Killing him destroyed that impression but did not destroy a network that had already devolved into regional branches.

The Islamic Republic is far better equipped for that kind of afterlife than either. It has governed for close to half a century. It has trained personnel, security intelligence, economic resources, religious institutions and cross-border networks. Driven underground, it would not be starting from nothing.

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    Who speaks for Iran: What the public rift means, and what it hides

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    From shadow to power: who is Mojtaba Khamenei?

A familiar pattern of absence

Absence also carries a particular charge in Shia religious culture, and this is where the Islamic Republic has a vocabulary ready to hand.

Twelver Shia Muslims believe the twelfth imam, who vanished in the ninth century, is alive but hidden and will one day return. During the period known as the Lesser Occultation, roughly 874 to 941, his instructions are said to have reached his followers through four successive deputies who spoke on his behalf. The Greater Occultation, in which he remains hidden and has no named deputy, has continued ever since.

This is not a claim about religious rank. Mojtaba Khamenei holds no such standing for Shia believers, and the comparison is not about status. It is about the function of absence: a person who cannot be seen can still be treated as present. Intermediaries speak in his name, and waiting takes the place of proof.

The Islamic Republic itself was built on a theology of absence. Its constitution justifies the rule of a jurist explicitly as an arrangement for the era of the hidden imam, which means the state has spent 47 years governing on behalf of a leader nobody can see. Its propaganda apparatus therefore has both the language and the precedent to convert the absence of Mojtaba Khamenei into a kind of hidden presence.

That possibility is not indefinite. The longer the absence lasts, the harder it becomes to distinguish a genuine order from a manufactured one, the sharper the competition among those claiming to speak for the leader, and the more insistent the question: who is actually giving the orders in Tehran?

Mojtaba Khamenei's absence will probably not save the Islamic Republic from military defeat, economic collapse or social unrest. It may, however, allow it to go on existing after such a collapse.

As long as the fate of the absent leader remains unclear, the system's followers can treat the fall as temporary, the defeat as unfinished and the return as possible. Because sometimes governments continue not because they are still standing, but because their death has not yet been proven.

Iran fuel reserves may run dry within weeks, sources say

Aug 26, 2026, 13:28 GMT+1
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Cars queue at a gasoline station in Tehran

Iran's drawdown of strategic fuel reserves has reached a “red alert” level and could exhaust remaining stocks within weeks, fueling disagreement between President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Revolutionary Guards, informed sources told Iran International on Wednesday.

The reserves, intended to cushion severe shortages and emergencies, have been tapped at a pace in recent weeks that has prompted warnings from experts within the state about the consequences of continuing, the sources said.

Remaining fuel stocks could be depleted within several weeks if withdrawals continue at the current rate, limiting the government's ability to offset disruptions to domestic production or imports and prevent widespread supply stoppages, according to the sources.

The growing reliance on strategic stocks has also opened a dispute between the government and the Revolutionary Guards over how long withdrawals should continue, they said.

  • Iran keeps finding gas. Getting it out is the problem

    Iran keeps finding gas. Getting it out is the problem

Revolutionary Guards officials oppose unrestricted use of the reserves, while government officials want to keep drawing on them to keep filling stations operating and contain public concern over shortages and higher prices, the sources added.

Daily shortfall strains supplies

Iran produces about 120 million liters of gasoline a day but consumes around 135 million liters, leaving a daily deficit of about 15 million liters.

Ali-Akbar Saghab Esfahani, head of Iran's Energy Optimization and Strategic Management Organization, put the daily gasoline shortfall at 14 million to 15 million liters on August 15.

Before the shortage intensified, imports covered about half the gap, much of it through fuel supplies from Russia, the sources said.

A US maritime blockade, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining infrastructure and the closure of the Caspian Sea supply route have sharply restricted Iran's ability to maintain those imports, according to the sources.

Iranian diplomatic efforts to secure alternative fuel supplies from allies and neighboring countries have yet to produce an agreement.

Britain and Qatar have meanwhile backed a new US economic campaign against the Islamic Republic, as Washington seeks to restrict its financial, shipping and energy trade routes.

Fuel moved to reopen Tehran stations

Gasoline shortages have reached Tehran, forcing some filling stations to close, according to information obtained by Iran International.

Authorities have ordered fuel transferred from neighboring provinces to reopen some stations in the capital, but dozens of others remain at risk of closure, the sources said.

  • Iran weighs gasoline rationing as fuel deficit widens

    Iran weighs gasoline rationing as fuel deficit widens

Videos and messages sent by citizens have also documented long lines, station closures and difficulties obtaining gasoline in Tehran, Alborz, South Khorasan and Razavi Khorasan provinces.

The Tehran regional manager of the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company attributed temporary closures at some stations to a sudden rise in demand and congestion along fuel transportation routes.

Reports from citizens suggest the disruption is also affecting transportation costs. Several people told Iran International that fares charged by ride-hailing services Snapp and Tapsi had risen sharply as fewer drivers accepted trips.

“Gas stations are crowded, GPS doesn't work and you can't work for Snapp. Fares have gone up, but there are no drivers to accept the trip. We're left without money and without gasoline,” a Tehran resident told Iran International.

Another citizen said the cost of a regular Snapp journey had risen from 1,000,000 rials last month to 3,200,000 rials, while a resident of Shiraz described steep increases in ride-hailing fares despite no gasoline shortage there.

A Snapp driver said fuel consumption from running air conditioning for passengers required him to refill about every two days, but his quota had been exhausted and purchases outside the quota were limited to 25 liters.

Other messages sent to Iran International accused authorities of deliberately restricting supplies before a possible price increase.

“When they want to raise the price of cooking oil, they say there isn't any. When they want to raise the price of rice, they say there isn't any. But after the price goes up, everything is available,” a resident of Mashhad said. “Now it's gasoline's turn.”

The Mashhad resident said filling stations were not receiving enough gasoline but predicted supplies would become readily available if authorities raised prices.

Another citizen questioned why a gasoline deficit of 10% to 20% was causing such widespread disruption and accused authorities of deliberately making fuel scarce to make consumers more willing to accept higher prices.

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File photo shows a man filling his car with gasoline at a gas station in Tehran.

“Many gas stations are either closed or have no gasoline to distribute,” a Tehran resident said, also accusing the government of diverting fuel for foreign currency earnings.

Another message accused authorities of using the shortage as justification for a gasoline price increase and manipulating distribution to create congestion at filling stations and reduce resistance to higher prices.

“Half of Pakdasht's gas stations have no gasoline and the rest are extremely crowded,” a resident said. “They are trying to force people to accept higher gasoline prices.”

Government weighs three options

The government is considering three responses to the shortage: limiting gasoline supply to domestic production levels, reducing subsidized quotas and selling additional consumption at the unrestricted price, or shifting fuel quotas from vehicles to individuals.

Concern that higher gasoline prices could trigger protests has encouraged the government to use strategic reserves to buy time, the sources said.

Fuel price increases have been politically sensitive in Iran. A sudden rise in gasoline prices in November 2019 triggered nationwide protests followed by a deadly state crackdown.

The attempt to delay harder choices by drawing on emergency stocks is now creating another problem, according to Iran International's sources: the buffer intended to protect Iran during severe supply disruptions may itself be only weeks away from exhaustion.

Iran keeps finding gas. Getting it out is the problem

Aug 25, 2026, 04:04 GMT+1
•
Umud Shokri
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File Photo: An offshore rig on Iran's South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf

Iran has announced another major gas discovery, but with the world’s second-largest reserves already beneath its soil, Tehran’s problem is not finding gas but finding the money and technology to extract it.

Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad said the newly discovered field in southern Fars Province contains more than 7.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas in place, of which about 5.7 Tcf could be recoverable.

He compared the recoverable volume with roughly 15 years of production from one phase of South Pars.

The gas is also described as “sweet,” meaning its relatively low sulphur content could reduce processing and operating costs.

Yet the discovery adds to an already enormous resource base. Iran held about 1,200 Tcf of proved natural gas reserves at the end of 2023, second only to Russia, and produced about 9.4 Tcf that year.

Most of that gas is consumed domestically, while exports remain largely confined to regional pipeline trade.

Lack of investment

The headline figure also comes with an important caveat: gas in place is not the same as commercially recoverable reserves. Whether the estimated 5.7 Tcf can ultimately be produced economically will depend on reservoir performance, infrastructure, costs and access to investment.

That last constraint may prove particularly difficult.

Sanctions have restricted Iran’s access to international financing, foreign investment and Western energy companies and equipment suppliers, while Tehran is already confronting the costly task of sustaining production from its existing fields.

The scale of the challenge is visible at South Pars, Iran’s largest gas field. In March 2025, the National Iranian Oil Company signed contracts worth about $17 billion for pressure-boosting facilities needed to counter declining reservoir pressure.

Paknejad has also said Iran would require about $19 billion in annual investment to meet its broader gas-production targets over the following four years.

The new Fars field will therefore be competing for capital with the increasingly expensive task of maintaining production from fields Iran already depends on.

Technology gap

Iranian companies have developed considerable capabilities after years of sanctions forced domestic contractors to take over work previously carried out by international firms. But self-reliance has not eliminated dependence on foreign technology.

The South Pars pressure-boosting program, for example, requires 56 high-capacity turbo-compressors across seven hubs.

S&P Global reported that while most equipment was expected to be sourced domestically, foreign assistance and technology transfer would still be required for parts of the project.

South Pars Phase 11 demonstrated that vulnerability. TotalEnergies withdrew after Washington reimposed sanctions, and China National Petroleum Corporation subsequently left the project, forcing Iran to proceed through domestic companies without the advanced foreign technology originally envisaged.

Iranian firms can therefore develop significant parts of new gas projects, but financing constraints and gaps in specialized technology can increase costs and extend timelines, particularly when the same companies are expected to maintain mature fields, repair infrastructure and expand production simultaneously.

Can China fill the gap?

China is the most obvious candidate to provide some of what Iran lacks, but its role has limits.

Chinese independent refiners remain major buyers of sanctioned Iranian crude. Yet buying discounted oil through sanctions-resistant trading networks involves far less long-term exposure than committing billions of dollars to a multi-year gas development.

CNPC’s withdrawal from South Pars Phase 11 showed that major Chinese companies are also sensitive to sanctions, financing difficulties and access to international technology.

Recent US measures targeting Chinese independent refiners, vessels and financial channels involved in Iranian oil trade have increased those risks.

Smaller Chinese companies may continue supplying equipment and services, but they are unlikely by themselves to replace the financing, technology and project-management capabilities once provided by major international energy companies.

The Fars discovery therefore adds another potentially valuable asset to Iran’s extraordinary resource base. Its sweet gas and condensate content may improve the economics, and Iranian companies are more capable of developing such fields than they were a decade ago.

But Iran’s energy paradox remains: it can keep finding enormous quantities of hydrocarbons faster than it can find the investment and technology needed to turn them into reliable supply and export revenue.