Iran risks its most valuable Arab partner over Hormuz

The latest escalation saw the United States widen its attacks to dozens of locations across several Iranian provinces. While many of the reports could not be independently verified, they suggested a broader operational scope than in recent days.

US Central Command announced another round of strikes aimed at degrading Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transit route.

State-affiliated Iranian media later claimed Tehran had launched extensive missile and drone attacks against US bases and vessels across the region.

Nour News, which is close to Iran's Supreme National Security Council, reported that the attacks had begun, while Sabereen News said several ballistic missiles had been fired from western and central Iran toward US military positions.

Bahrain's Interior Ministry subsequently activated air raid sirens and urged residents to avoid using or obstructing main roads unless necessary, adding that further safety instructions would follow.

A CENTCOM spokesperson told Al Jazeera that Iranian Revolutionary Guards forces had fired at commercial shipping in the strait, adding that US aircraft shot down an Iranian cruise missile and a one-way attack drone. Tehran has not confirmed those claims.

The maritime confrontation remained at the center of the escalation.

Iran continued to insist that the waterway remains under its control. Senior military officials said all foreign naval movements in the strait were under continuous surveillance and warned that no vessel would be allowed to enter Iranian territorial waters unlawfully.

In a strongly worded statement, Iran's Foreign Ministry accused the United States of violating both the memorandum of understanding and the UN Charter, saying American attacks over the past 24 hours had targeted transportation infrastructure, commercial shipping, cargo vessels and aviation facilities.

The ministry also accused Washington of pressuring Oman to undermine Iranian arrangements for managing shipping through Hormuz and warned Persian Gulf states against allowing their territory to be used for attacks on Iran.

It said the source of any attack on Iranian territory would be regarded as a legitimate target for retaliation.

The renewed military activity also rattled global markets.

Brent crude rose more than three percent in Asian trading as investors priced in the risk of prolonged disruption around Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies normally pass.

Regional governments appeared increasingly uneasy as the confrontation widened.

Iraq called for restraint and warned against actions that could endanger maritime navigation. Qatari officials, who had been attempting to preserve a diplomatic channel between Tehran and Washington, remained engaged with Iranian counterparts, although there was little indication mediation efforts were gaining traction.

Only days ago, officials on both sides continued to speak publicly about diplomacy. President Donald Trump said Iran had asked to continue talks and that Washington remained prepared to negotiate, while US officials described technical discussions as ongoing despite repeated violations of the ceasefire.

Those diplomatic signals now appear increasingly overshadowed by events on the ground.

Rather than serving as a bridge toward a broader agreement, the memorandum of understanding has become another point of contention, with each side accusing the other of violating its terms.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s renewed call for revenge over his father’s killing has emboldened hardliners demanding concrete action, while raising questions over how such threats can be reconciled with Tehran’s stated openness to diplomacy.

In a message issued after the burial of former supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei described retaliation for his father’s death in a February 28 airstrike as “a national demand”, adding that it “will most certainly be carried out.”

Judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, recently reappointed by Khamenei for another five-year term, immediately welcomed the declaration that revenge for his slain father was inevitable.

“We will pursue and punish the murderers of the martyred Imam,” he wrote on X.

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In a message issued after the burial of former supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei described retaliation for his father’s death in a February 28 airstrike as “a national demand”, adding that it “will most certainly be carried out.”

Judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, recently reappointed by Khamenei for another five-year term, immediately welcomed the declaration that revenge for his slain father was inevitable.

“We will pursue and punish the murderers of the martyred Imam,” he wrote on X.

Former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, now a military adviser to the supreme leader, said US president Donal Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had crossed the Islamic Republic’s “red lines” and “must be met with decisive and proportionate punishment.”

“Revenge is part of the path of the Revolution,” he added.

The declaration revived a contradiction at the heart of Iranian policy: whether Tehran can negotiate with Washington while presenting revenge against its president as a national or religious obligation.

Hours before Khamenei’s message, Trump said 1,000 US missiles were “locked and loaded” and aimed at Iran, with thousands more ready to follow if the Iranian government acted on threats to kill him.

The message also intensified pressure on officials viewed as favouring engagement with Washington.

Some hardline commentators portrayed it as drawing a clear line between the supreme leader and supporters of negotiations, while others complained that senior officials and institutions had been slow to endorse it publicly.

President Masoud Pezeshkian had earlier affirmed Iran’s right to avenge what he called the “historic crime,” while Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said those responsible would face justice.

Neither had publicly commented on Khamenei’s latest message at the time of writing.

Former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said avenging Khamenei would be “a defence of every nation’s sovereignty” and “the greatest service to international law.”

Hardline political activist Ahmad Ghadiri argued that advocating Trump’s assassination fundamentally contradicts negotiations with Washington.

Amir Chizari, a political activist close to Ghalibaf, disagreed. He maintained that the obligation to seek revenge, which he said Khamenei had imposed on all Muslims, “does not contradict the negotiations that have taken place so far.”

Reformist journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi questioned the logic of pursuing both tracks simultaneously.

“Those who say Iran should negotiate and reach an agreement with the United States while at the same time planning to cut off Trump’s head, or demanding his extradition to Iran to be killed, what framework of political or practical logic are they following?” he wrote.

Some hardline figures called for the rhetoric to be translated into action.

Political analyst Ehsan Salehi told Hamshahri’s online television channel that security agencies should establish dedicated units to carry out revenge operations.

“The word ‘revenge’ is neither ambiguous nor open to interpretation,” he said. “It has a clear meaning: punishing and eliminating the killers. It cannot be diluted into harmless slogans or symbolic projects.”

Salehi argued that a stronger response to the US killing of Qasem Soleimani in 2020 might have deterred subsequent attacks.

Cleric Mohammad Fayyazi said Khamenei’s declaration had effectively made revenge official policy and urged the government to endorse it formally, without what he called “pointless diplomatic considerations.”

The debate exposed broader disagreements over Iran’s priorities.

The news website Rouydad24 argued that while parts of the political and military establishment consider revenge the country’s foremost objective, others see the deteriorating economy and declining public trust as the more immediate threats.

It warned that becoming trapped in “a vicious cycle of emotional decisions” could bring tougher sanctions, greater economic hardship and deeper domestic discontent.

One reformist-leaning user argued that revenge also required the capacity to carry it out.

“A country that could not guarantee the security of its late leader, and cannot fully guarantee the security of its current leader, should first restore its own strength before thinking about revenge,” the user wrote. “Otherwise, the result will be no different from before.”

Religious scholar Saeed Sadoughi raised a more fundamental question.

“Suppose Trump and Netanyahu are gone and revenge is achieved. Will the country’s problems be solved?” he wrote. “Will issues such as high-level uranium enrichment and the Strait of Hormuz simply disappear? Will the country suddenly move towards development and prosperity?”

The directive, carried by the state-run ISNA news agency, described participants as Iran’s “summoned people” and said the gatherings had expanded with the supreme leader’s approval and guidance.

It said government supporters remained in mourning and were seeking revenge for those killed in the war, particularly former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and should therefore remain in public squares until further notice.

The nightly gatherings began after Ali Khamenei’s death was announced at the start of the war in late February. Government institutions sustained them through speeches, religious ceremonies, patriotic performances and food distribution, while state media portrayed them as evidence of national unity and support for the Islamic Republic.

The phrase “summoned people” echoes remarks Ali Khamenei made before the war, when he said God would mobilize the public during a national crisis and that “the people would finish the job.”

The rallies later became a means of political pressure, with participants chanting against officials involved in negotiations with Washington. Some accused negotiators of betraying those killed in the war and called for talks with the United States to be halted.

Ali Khomeini, a grandson of Islamic Republic founder Ruhollah Khomeini, reinforced that position on Friday, saying negotiations with the United States should not be viewed as a path to peace.

“Negotiation means war; war has different forms,” he said, adding that anyone seeking peace with Washington was a traitor.

The gatherings have also highlighted the government’s shifting approach to women without the mandatory hijab. While some clerics criticized their presence, other officials welcomed them as part of a broader pro-government front.

Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since the war began, including after his father’s death, the announcement of his succession and Ali Khamenei’s burial. His positions have so far been conveyed only through written statements.

In a message issued after the burial of former supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei described retaliation for his father’s death in a February 28 airstrike as “a national demand”, adding that it “will most certainly be carried out.”

It was the second time Khamenei had publicly pledged revenge, after first doing so in his initial written message following his father’s killing and the announcement of his succession.

He has not appeared in public, including at Ali Khamenei’s funeral prayers or burial ceremonies, since the airstrike on the leader’s compound which also reportedly injured him.

Hours earlier, Trump said 1,000 US missiles were “locked and loaded” and aimed at Iran, with thousands more ready to follow if the Iranian government acted on threats to kill him.

Trump said he had authorized the US military, for one year and subject to extension, to “completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran” if an attempt were made on his life.

Khamenei did not name Trump but pledged to bring his father’s killers to justice, saying they would not be allowed to “die peacefully in their beds.”

He said the revenge campaign did not depend on his own survival or the presence of any other official, adding that it would be completed whether he was alive or dead.

The exchange followed state-run funeral ceremonies during which mourners displayed calls for the deaths of Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Israel had recently shared information with Washington suggesting Iranian officials had discussed assassinating Trump, citing US and Israeli officials.

Diplomacy continues under pressure

The threats unfolded alongside diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict, with regional mediators pursuing talks even as Washington signaled that time for an agreement was running short.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman on Saturday for talks on the Strait of Hormuz. Qatari officials also joined the Iran-Oman discussions in Muscat, where the parties were considering a statement on fully reopening the strait’s “median lane” in international waters to unrestricted navigation, Axios reported, citing a diplomat familiar with the talks.

US officials told the Associated Press that Trump had given American negotiators limited time to reach an agreement with Iran and retained a wide range of options if the talks failed.

CBS reported on Saturday, citing a US official, that Vice President JD Vance would not travel to Muscat and that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner would not take part in the talks there.

Washington also continued to set conditions for any agreement. The officials cited by the Associated Press said a nuclear deal would require Tehran to hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpile and stop attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.