The US capture of Nicolas Maduro, a staunch ally of Iran's theocratic rulers, has cast doubt on whether Venezuela will ever pay its reported two-billion debt to Tehran should Caracas flip into an ally of Washington.
Following a US attack on Venezuela on January 3 and the arrest of Maduro, its economic muddle is unchanged. Unpaid debts, legal claims and arbitration rulings total between $150 billion and $170 billion.
The scale of liabilities far exceeds the capacity of Venezuela’s collapsed economy, casting doubt on whether creditors will recover their losses.
Iran is among the countries exposed to the fallout. Analysts say the Islamic Republic is not just a conventional creditor but potentially one of the main financial losers of any transformational change in Caracas, especially as it is sanctioned by the United States.
Over nearly two decades, Tehran spent around 2 billion of dollars in Venezuela according to Iranian media.
The economic projects ranged from joint automobile production projects launched in 2007, housing schemes estimated at about 23,000 units, banking cooperation and oil and logistical exchanges carried out under sanctions.
Iran also used Venezuela as a political and logistical base to bypass international sanctions and advance regional objectives.
According to Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a former head of Iran’s parliamentary national security commission, Venezuela's debts to Iran reflect only officially recorded investments and assistance.
No estimates exist for the value of undeclared financial flows linked to what the US calls smuggling networks or military and security cooperation between the two allies, due to their classified nature.
Venezuela’s debt crisis dates back to large-scale nationalizations carried out between 2007 and 2012 under Hugo Chávez and the early years of Maduro’s rule, when foreign oil, mining and industrial assets were seized. Western companies later secured arbitration rulings, which Venezuela failed to pay.
From 2018 onward, US courts recognized those rulings as enforceable debt, allowing creditors to pursue Venezuelan assets abroad. Venezuela’s first bond default in 2017 accelerated the crisis, with unpaid principal and interest accumulating into tens of billions of dollars.
The International Monetary Fund estimated Venezuela’s nominal GDP at about $82.8 billion in 2025, far below its total external debt. Creditors have since focused on foreign assets, particularly Citgo Petroleum in the United States, whose ownership has been contested in US courts since 2019.
With Maduro removed from power, Venezuela’s debt case has moved out of political limbo. However, it is unlikely that losses tied to Iran’s investments in Venezuela will be recovered through US courts, given Iran’s own sanctioned status and the scale of competing claims.
Fatemeh Mohajerani said the increase was the result of the government’s decision to end subsidized dollars for essential imports in an effort to stabilize the foreign exchange market and curb corruption, a move that has pushed up the local-currency cost of imports of goods and raw material.
“It is evident that by ending or reducing subsidized and preferential official foreign currency exchange rates, the prices of some items will rise,” she said.
Earlier on Monday, parliament said it had approved the general outlines of the budget for the next Iranian year, which begins in March, after the bill was initially rejected and subsequently amended by the government.
The government described the changes as reforms aimed at improving livelihoods, as authorities seek to ease ongoing anti-government protests and strikes.
The revisions are said to include a pay rise of up to 43% instead of 20%, a cut in value-added tax to 10% from 12%, and the allocation of $8.8 billion in subsidized foreign exchange to curb price rises for basic goods.
The budget was also reported to earmark funds for guaranteed wheat purchases to supply bread and for adjusting pensioners’ salaries.
Lawmakers approved the budget framework with 171 votes in favor, 69 against and six abstentions, out of 246 lawmakers present.
Meanwhile, nationwide protests entered a ninth day on Monday, with merchant strikes continuing in parts of the country.
The unrest began after the rial fell to record lows in late December and has since broadened into a wider test of the government’s ability to manage a country under sustained economic strain.
“Anyone who had money in Venezuela has already taken it out,” Majidreza Hariri said, responding to concerns about Iranian assets worth an estimated two billion dollars.
He added that instability in Venezuela had been evident for at least five to six months, leaving ample time for Iranian funds to be withdrawn, and warned against attempts to use the crisis as a pretext to write off debts.
He said Iran-Venezuela Bank has not functioned as an effective commercial bank in recent years as financial transactions between the two countries were not conducted through this bank.
According to Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday, economic and diplomatic relations with Venezuela remain intact in the wake of Maduro’s arrest, and political developments do not automatically alter bilateral ties.
“Relations between states are based on mutual respect and interests,” said spokesperson Esmail Baghaei earlier in the day.
He said Iranian diplomats and citizens in Venezuela are safe and that Tehran continues to monitor the situation closely.