The US capture of Nicolas Maduro, a staunch ally of Iran's theocratic rulers, has cast doubt on whether Venezuela will ever pay its reported two-billion debt to Tehran should Caracas flip into an ally of Washington.
Following a US attack on Venezuela on January 3 and the arrest of Maduro, its economic muddle is unchanged. Unpaid debts, legal claims and arbitration rulings total between $150 billion and $170 billion.
The scale of liabilities far exceeds the capacity of Venezuela’s collapsed economy, casting doubt on whether creditors will recover their losses.
Iran is among the countries exposed to the fallout. Analysts say the Islamic Republic is not just a conventional creditor but potentially one of the main financial losers of any transformational change in Caracas, especially as it is sanctioned by the United States.
Over nearly two decades, Tehran spent around 2 billion of dollars in Venezuela according to Iranian media.
The economic projects ranged from joint automobile production projects launched in 2007, housing schemes estimated at about 23,000 units, banking cooperation and oil and logistical exchanges carried out under sanctions.
Iran also used Venezuela as a political and logistical base to bypass international sanctions and advance regional objectives.
According to Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a former head of Iran’s parliamentary national security commission, Venezuela's debts to Iran reflect only officially recorded investments and assistance.
No estimates exist for the value of undeclared financial flows linked to what the US calls smuggling networks or military and security cooperation between the two allies, due to their classified nature.
Venezuela’s debt crisis dates back to large-scale nationalizations carried out between 2007 and 2012 under Hugo Chávez and the early years of Maduro’s rule, when foreign oil, mining and industrial assets were seized. Western companies later secured arbitration rulings, which Venezuela failed to pay.
From 2018 onward, US courts recognized those rulings as enforceable debt, allowing creditors to pursue Venezuelan assets abroad. Venezuela’s first bond default in 2017 accelerated the crisis, with unpaid principal and interest accumulating into tens of billions of dollars.
The International Monetary Fund estimated Venezuela’s nominal GDP at about $82.8 billion in 2025, far below its total external debt. Creditors have since focused on foreign assets, particularly Citgo Petroleum in the United States, whose ownership has been contested in US courts since 2019.
With Maduro removed from power, Venezuela’s debt case has moved out of political limbo. However, it is unlikely that losses tied to Iran’s investments in Venezuela will be recovered through US courts, given Iran’s own sanctioned status and the scale of competing claims.
