Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary was challenged over his interpretation of a study by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America on the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict, after he cited the report in remarks posted on X last week.
The Iranian security chief Ali Larijani “cites my 12-Day War report but skips the part where Iran lost: Iran’s missile and drone attacks were overwhelmingly defeated by US and Israeli defenses and Israel’s crushing strikes against Iran,” Ari Cicurel, Associate Director of Foreign Policy at JINSA and author of the report “Shielded by Fire,” wrote on X.
The Iranian official had written that “Iran's armed forces demonstrated power in the war against the Zionists,” invoking the JINSA study to back his argument. But the report, released in August 2025, found that Iran’s missile and drone attacks were mostly neutralized through integrated US-Israel air and missile defenses.
US defenses decisive
The 29-page study said Iran launched 574 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 drones between June 13 and 24, yet only 49 missiles impacted populated areas or infrastructure. It attributed Israel’s limited damage to the combined interception network, which it said achieved an 85 percent success rate.
“The vast majority of the over 500 ballistic missiles fired by Iran did no damage to Israel, that success due in large part to ad hoc US-led air defense cooperation,” the report said.
The analysis credited Washington’s role as decisive, noting that the United States deployed two THAAD missile defense batteries and several Aegis-equipped destroyers to support Israel and provided over 230 interceptors -- around a quarter of its total stockpile.
Contrasting narratives
Israel’s counterstrikes destroyed hundreds of Iranian launchers and reduced its missile stockpile from 2,500 to roughly 1,000 - 1,500, forcing Tehran to scale back its offensives, according to the report.
While Iran’s security chief portrayed the conflict as a demonstration of military strength, the JINSA study described it as a costly confrontation that exposed Iran’s vulnerabilities.
The report concluded that Israel and the United States must expand interceptor production and formalize their missile defense coordination to prevent Iran from regaining its offensive capacity.
The case is one of the most high-profile yet dealing with Iran's so-called transnational repression, or bid to deploy violence to silence its critics abroad.
Prosecutors had argued that Rafat Amirov, 46, of Iran and Polad Omarov, 41, of Georgia were senior figures in a Russian crime group enlisted by members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards to kill Alinejad.
The men were convicted in March after a two-week trial that included testimony from Alinejad and a hired gunman turned witness for the prosecution.
Alinejad, an author and Voice of America contributor, said she would attend the sentencing to deliver an impact statement.
Pleading guilty
The FBI disrupted the assassination attempt after surveillance footage revealed suspicious activity near Alinejad’s residence. She was away at the time, a factor that may have saved her life.
Khalid Mehdiyev, a member of the Thieves in Law gang who was allegedly due to carry out the killing, said he received orders from the two to kill the journalist who uses her platform to expose the Islamic Republic’s repression.
He pleaded guilty to attempted murder and gun charges.
Alinejad, who has long criticized Iran’s compulsory hijab laws and its treatment of women, said she will speak at the sentencing not just for herself, but "for every woman who refuses to be afraid.”
The FBI’s Counterintelligence Division and its Iran Threat Task Force led the investigation with support from the NYPD and Czech authorities.
The Justice Department said Alinejad has previously been the target of IRGC-backed plots to kidnap or kill her for her activism, which includes highlighting Iran’s human rights record and advocating against compulsory hijab laws.
The veteran theocrat had referenced the “No Kings” protests across the United States on Oct. 18 in a recent speech, calling on US President Donald Trump to listen to demonstrators and refrain from interfering in other countries.
“If you’re that capable, calm them down, send them back to their residences, and don’t interfere in the affairs of other countries,” Khamenei had said.
Ghadyani, 80, who is serving a prison sentence for “propaganda against the regime,” including a 2019 sentence for insulting Khamenei, said the 86-year-old ruler was in no place to lecture Trump.
“Sooner or later, the Iranian people will rise and dismantle the oppressive, authoritarian and anti-national system of Ali Khamenei,” Ghadyani wrote.
“The most peaceful path forward is for him to relinquish his grip on power, seek forgiveness from the Iranian people, and allow a referendum to establish a government of the people’s choosing.”
Insulting Khamenei, considered by Iran's theocratic establishment to be a holy figure, is a crime and Ghadyani has few peers among prominent critics in leveling direct attacks on him.
A former revolutionary turned outspoken dissident, he has faced multiple convictions for his political writings and public statements.
Ghadyani said Khamenei reveals his own hypocrisy and authoritarianism by urging the US president, in his interpretation, to suppress dissent as he does in Iran.
“This criminal autocrat unwittingly exposes his own nature by urging the US president to suppress dissent as he and his anti-people allies do in Iran,” he wrote.
Ghadyani challenged Khamenei’s concept of national security, arguing that it focuses solely on preserving power rather than protecting the Iranian people.
“For tyrants like him, national security and the safety of the people are meaningless. True security lies in the absence of authoritarian rule,” he wrote.
‘Let the public vote’
Authorities in Iran, where Khamenei is that ultimate decision maker, have suppressed with deadly force recurring rounds of anti-government protests in recent decades but have long bashed the rights records of Israel and the United States.
A long-time critic of Khamenei, Ghadyani dared the Iranian leader to test his popularity through a public vote.
“Khamenei dares not admit that over 95 percent of Iranians oppose him and the Islamic Republic. If he denies this, let him, just once, submit himself to a public vote and show the world how deeply the Iranian people reject him,” Ghadyani said.
His latest imprisonment follows a series of letters and speeches in which he has openly called for Khamenei’s resignation and the dismantling of Iran’s ruling system.
Iran continues to grapple with the aftermath of a punishing 12-day war in June against Israel and the United States and the the reimposition last month of UN sanctions triggered by Britain, France and the United Kingdom.
