Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary was challenged over his interpretation of a study by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America on the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict, after he cited the report in remarks posted on X last week.
The Iranian security chief Ali Larijani “cites my 12-Day War report but skips the part where Iran lost: Iran’s missile and drone attacks were overwhelmingly defeated by US and Israeli defenses and Israel’s crushing strikes against Iran,” Ari Cicurel, Associate Director of Foreign Policy at JINSA and author of the report “Shielded by Fire,” wrote on X.
The Iranian official had written that “Iran's armed forces demonstrated power in the war against the Zionists,” invoking the JINSA study to back his argument. But the report, released in August 2025, found that Iran’s missile and drone attacks were mostly neutralized through integrated US-Israel air and missile defenses.
US defenses decisive
The 29-page study said Iran launched 574 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 drones between June 13 and 24, yet only 49 missiles impacted populated areas or infrastructure. It attributed Israel’s limited damage to the combined interception network, which it said achieved an 85 percent success rate.
“The vast majority of the over 500 ballistic missiles fired by Iran did no damage to Israel, that success due in large part to ad hoc US-led air defense cooperation,” the report said.
The analysis credited Washington’s role as decisive, noting that the United States deployed two THAAD missile defense batteries and several Aegis-equipped destroyers to support Israel and provided over 230 interceptors -- around a quarter of its total stockpile.
Contrasting narratives
Israel’s counterstrikes destroyed hundreds of Iranian launchers and reduced its missile stockpile from 2,500 to roughly 1,000 - 1,500, forcing Tehran to scale back its offensives, according to the report.
While Iran’s security chief portrayed the conflict as a demonstration of military strength, the JINSA study described it as a costly confrontation that exposed Iran’s vulnerabilities.
The report concluded that Israel and the United States must expand interceptor production and formalize their missile defense coordination to prevent Iran from regaining its offensive capacity.
