Iran is nearing nuclear weapons threshold, IAEA warns

Late last year, when I did that, the dollar was 68,000 tomans. Two weeks ago, it hit an all-time high of 102,000. Then it started dropping sharply when Tehran and Washington began negotiating.

It’s now an almost masochistic exercise, calculating how much my partner and I could have gained had I waited a little bit longer.

Over the last six-seven years, we converted whatever we had and could save into dollars. It stood at around $20,000 in the fall of 2024.

We kept the cash at home, living in constant fear of a break-in. But we didn’t trust the banks either. People’s foreign currency deposits were once forcibly converted to rials during a currency collapse in the early 2010s. Public trust was shattered.

Our savings weren’t enough to buy a home in Tehran. Renting here, with inflation this brutal, is terrifying. Prices climb relentlessly. Our income doesn’t. Half of what we earn goes straight to rent.

Then the war drums began to beat louder. The Israeli-Iranian cold war heated up with missile attacks and airstrikes. War felt closer than ever. We went to bed each night bracing for the worst.

That’s when we made our decision: we’d buy a home outside Tehran—somewhere to safeguard our money, and ourselves, if war came. A property in the capital was out of reach anyway. A small 600 sq ft apartment in a modest neighborhood would cost about 5 billion tomans. We had less than two.

Even ChatGPT approved our thinking.

“If you're buying as a refuge, stay away from military centers and major cities, and prepare for wartime shortages,” it said.

We found an old 2000 sq ft house in a small town in Iran’s northern province of Gilan, far from military sites and with clean air. We sold our dollars overnight, sold the little jewelry that we had, and borrowed 600 million tomans to close the deal at 2.5 billion.

We couldn’t move. We’re both job-bound to Tehran. But now we had a place to escape to. A safe investment. A backup life.

Almost immediately, as if waiting for us to get rid of our assets, the dollar and gold surged. We couldn’t help calculating what we’d lost. It was dreadful. And all the more so because we had been advised against it by our family. “Why sell when the dollar is rising?” they said.

The stress and the anxiety boiled over into a fight. My partner kept saying “I told you so.” He hadn’t. Eventually, we decided and promised not to revisit the issue, but privately, we both still do. We check the rates. We run the numbers in our heads.

Since these US-Iran talks began, I’ve been torn. A deal with Donald Trump could bring much-needed cash to the government’s coffers. Would it ease the people’s hardship? Most likely not. It would only benefit Iran’s bloated IRGC-led oligarchy and its loyal forces inside and abroad.

Still—for now at least—the threat of war feels more distant. That offers a fragile peace of mind.

But Many are not even torn. In a recent poll on Telegram, seven in ten of over 5,000 participants said they’d rather the deal fell apart and the Islamic Republic was attacked. I can’t say this reflects society as a whole, but I know more than a few who oppose a deal because they believe it prolongs the theocratic rule in Iran.

Even the dip in the exchange rate hasn’t brought joy. Prices haven’t dropped. Inflation hasn’t eased. And the rule still holds: we earn in rials, we spend in dollars.

For me, personally, the falling dollar has brought a strange feeling of comfort. It makes the choice we made feel a little less like a loss.

Iran’s government ruled out transferring enriched uranium out of the country in any deal with the United States and insisted sanctions relief remains Tehran’s top priority in the negotiations.

“The transfer of enriched uranium is among the issues that are a red line for the Islamic Republic of Iran,” government spokesman Fatemeh Mohajerani said on Tuesday.

She added that the talks aim to “effectively lift sanctions and improve economic conditions,” which she linked to both international cooperation and domestic market sentiment.

Iran's Supreme Leader has sent a direct message to his Chinese counterpart vowing a steady commitment to their strategic partnership no matter the outcome of ongoing nuclear talks with the US, a source familiar with the matter told Iran International.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to Beijing on Tuesday with Ali Khamenei’s letter to Xi Jinping, a diplomatic source familiar with the message told Iran International.

“In his message to Xi, the Supreme Leader said Iran’s ‘Look to the East’ policy is a foundational pillar of its foreign relations and will not be altered by any rapprochement with Washington.”

According to the diplomatic source, Khamenei’s message also referenced Iran’s cautious opening up to diplomacy and economic cooperation with the West following a 2015 nuclear agreement, telling Xi that such a change in orientation would not be repeated.

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Iran’s Foreign Ministry dismissed reports that Saudi Arabia has played a mediating role in nuclear talks with the United States.

“All of this is merely media speculation and rumor and does not reflect reality,” ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in comments to Russian news agency RIA Novosti.

Russia, Baghaei added, will continue to play its “constructive and positive role in handling Iran’s nuclear file.”

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to Beijing on Tuesday with Ali Khamenei’s letter to Xi Jinping, a diplomatic source familiar with the message told Iran International.

The move comes days before Araghchi is expected to hold a third round of talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff.

“In his message to Xi, the Supreme Leader emphasized that the Islamic Republic remains fully committed to the 25-year cooperation agreement with China,” the source added.

“He added that Iran’s ‘Look to the East’ policy is a foundational pillar of its foreign relations and will not be altered by any rapprochement with Washington.”

The outreach comes as Iran’s role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has remained marginal.

Despite close political ties and a comprehensive strategic agreement signed, Chinese investments in Iran have lagged far behind expectations. Only two major deals were struck between 2013 and 2023, with one later annulled following the US exit from a 2015 nuclear deal.

Iran and the United States this month engaged in two rounds of nuclear negotiations, first in Muscat and then in Rome, mediated by Oman. The initial talks in Muscat were described as "positive and constructive," with both sides agreeing to continue discussions the following week.

A third round of talks is slated for Saturday, as the two sides approach a 60-day deadline set by the US president for achieving a deal on Tehran's disputed nuclear program.

In late March, Trump threatened to bomb Iran and impose secondary sanctions if no nuclear deal is reached with Tehran.

Post-2015 opening to West 'won't be repeated’

According to the same diplomatic source, Khamenei’s message also referenced Iran’s cautious opening up to diplomacy and economic cooperation with the West following a 2015 nuclear agreement, telling Xi that such a change in orientation would not be repeated.

“The message was meant to reassure China that any agreement with the US is solely intended to reduce tensions,” the source said.

In his weekly press briefing on Monday, Iran's Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tehran continues to coordinate with allies, adding, “It is natural that we will brief China on the latest in the Iran-US talks.”

Araghchi’s trip to Beijing mirrors a recent effort in which Iran’s foreign minister delivered a similar message from Khamenei to Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of earlier talks in Italy.

Though China remains Iran’s top trading partner, Chinese firms have signed far more lucrative contracts with Saudi Arabia and the UAE in recent years.

Since taking office, the Trump administration has escalated pressure on Iran by targeting Chinese teapot refineries—independent processors of Iranian crude that have served as a vital economic conduit for Tehran under sanctions.