Just over a month into his second term, President Donald Trump has unsurprisingly revived his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, while leaving Washington’s relationship with Iraq on uncertain ground.
While the US has been pushing for resumption of oil exports from northern Iraq, talks to resume pumping crude through Turkey have collapsed for the second time in a week, official sources confirmed to Reuters.
The breakdown extends a two-year deadlock that has stalled crude flows from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey’s Ceyhan port.
It also complicates President Trump’s strategy of boosting Iraqi oil supply to keep global prices in check while simultaneously increasing pressure on Iran by cutting off its access to cheap crude.
"There is strong insistence from the US side on ensuring the success of the negotiations by any means," a US government official close to the talks told Reuters.
For Baghdad, however, the standoff is part of a larger dilemma. As Trump revives his "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, Iraq finds itself squeezed between two powerful allies—Washington and Tehran.
Not only is Iraq under growing pressure to restart oil exports, but also to curb Iran’s access to its financial system and restrict militia activity—moves that, in Washington’s view, would make Iraq more independent from Tehran.
Yet, for Iraq to fully align with US demands is unrealistic, given the 2,500 US troops still stationed in the country and last year’s $430 million in US military and economic aid.
Washington exerts financial pressure on Iran via Iraq
Beyond oil, the US is also tightening its grip on Iraq’s financial system in an effort to sever Tehran’s economic lifelines.
Last week, at the US Treasury’s request, Iraq’s central bank blocked five more private banks from accessing US dollars, according to Reuters. The move is part of a broader campaign to limit Tehran’s access to hard currency.
Additionally, Trump’s administration is reviewing all existing sanctions waivers that allow Iran to benefit economically, including the waiver that permits Iraq to purchase Iranian electricity and gas. If revoked, Iraq would be forced to find alternative energy sources or risk blackouts.
Iraqi leaders, however, appear to be pushing back slightly.
In an interview with Al Hadath, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein acknowledged US pressure but rejected the idea that Baghdad would fully align with Trump’s anti-Iran strategy.
“The United States proposed measures to increase pressure on Iran, but Baghdad is committed to balancing its relationships with both Washington and Tehran,” he said.
For now, there are no signs that Trump will escalate pressure immediately, but his unpredictability leaves Baghdad weighing not just whether it can rein in Iran’s influence—but whether it wants to.
Russia is an active geopolitical player with its own vested interests, Nematollah Izadi told ILNA News Agency on Friday.
"There is no doubt the Russians are interested in mediating between Iran and the US, but whether they can do so effectively remains in doubt," Izadi said. "They play a role in regional issues concerning Iran, the US, and Europe and have their own interests. Therefore, they cannot be impartial mediators."
He also urged Iran to adopt a balanced foreign policy, warning against over-reliance on a single ally.
"If Iran fails to do so, all of its foreign policy ‘eggs’ will end up in Russia’s basket—and most likely China’s as well," he said. "This will undoubtedly have negative consequences, as it will limit Iran’s options."
His remarks come following an alarming report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) earlier this week.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi revealed that Iran had significantly increased its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, raising further concerns over its nuclear intentions.
Grossi also acknowledged that Western sanctions have failed to curb Tehran’s nuclear expansion, with its program growing significantly in recent years.
“Sanctions aren’t working,” Grossi told Bloomberg. “Quite obviously, the country has learned to circumvent them. The program has grown enormously, especially since 2018.”
The IAEA has consistently argued that there is no credible civilian use for uranium enriched to 60%, as it is just a short technical step from weapons-grade (90%) uranium.
Russia’s expanding role in Iran talks
As Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West intensifies, Russia has positioned itself as a key diplomatic actor, proposing talks with Washington.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov met with Iranian Ambassador Kazem Jalali on Thursday to discuss international efforts to resolve issues surrounding Iran's nuclear program, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced on Friday.
Moscow has agreed to assist the US in communicating with Iran on various issues, including its nuclear program and support for regional anti-US proxies, according to a Bloomberg report on Tuesday, later confirmed by the Kremlin.
The report, later picked up by Russian state media, quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying that "Russia believes that the United States and Iran should resolve all problems through negotiations" and that Moscow "is ready to do everything in its power to achieve this."
Last month, before the Russian offer of mediation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran, where both sides "aligned their positions" on the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal that unraveled following the US withdrawal in 2018.
Additionally, in an exclusive interview with BBC Persian, Russia’s IAEA envoy Mikhail Ulyanov dismissed Western concerns about Iran’s uranium enrichment, calling US and European warnings a "political pressure tactic."
"Our Western colleagues seem to think the Middle East is too calm, and they want to add fuel to the fire," Ulyanov said.
Missile program and regional influence: a key sticking point
A major sticking point in nuclear negotiations is whether talks will include Iran’s missile program and regional influence, issues that the US insists must be addressed in any new deal, but Tehran and Moscow reject.
"Negotiations should not include Iran’s missile program or its regional influence," Ulyanov said. "Adding these topics would complicate the process and make it unmanageable."
This mirrors the original 2015 JCPOA, which focused solely on Iran’s nuclear program while excluding its missile program and regional activities, a framework Iran insists must remain unchanged.
Iran's shift away from the West
Izadi’s concerns over Russia’s mediation come amid Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s ban on negotiations with the United States, issued in early February after President Donald Trump announced plans to intensify sanctions. Trump called for an agreement that would permanently prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Khamenei has long pushed for closer ties with Russia and China, rejecting reliance on the US and Europe, a stance that has hardened since the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and renewed sanctions.
This shift has had domestic political consequences, most notably in the forced resignation of Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s former Foreign Minister who negotiated the JCPOA.
While the deputy chairman of the Iranian parliament's national security committee appears to be adamant that Russia will consider Iran's interests in its negotiations with America, the committee's former chairman has once again expressed concern that "Russia might sacrifice Iran for its own interests."
The remarks of Abbas Moghtadaei, deputy chairman of the Majles national security committee, suggested that Iran's interests factor into Russia’s calculations. "In its negotiations with the United States, Russia also considers Iran's interests," he said.
He argued that Russia would take Iran’s interests into account, citing the recently signed strategic cooperation agreement between the two countries and asserting that Moscow will "consider its ally's interests in its foreign relations." However, Russia has repeatedly stated in the past that Iran is not a strategic ally.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other officials have repeatedly referred to Iran as a partner, distinguishing their relationship from Russia’s formal alliances, such as with China or members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). In August 2022, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged the strength of Russia-Iran relations but stopped short of calling Iran a strategic ally.
The hardline Raja News, the pro-reform Fararu website, and the pro-Pezeshkian Etemad newspaper have also rejected the notion of Iran being a strategic ally of Russia. However, Moscow is still likely to back Tehran when it serves its interests, using Iran as regional and international leverage in its dealings with the West.
Meanwhile, in an interview with Etemad, Heshamatollah Falahatpisheh, former chief of the Iranian Parliament's national security and foreign relations committee, stated, "The revival of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers was sacrificed for Russia's war in Ukraine. I fear Iran may now be sacrificed for Russia’s peace with Ukraine."
He was referring to the West’s reluctance to negotiate with Iran following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which led to the suspension of nuclear talks in March 2022. Since then, Tehran has supported Russia’s war effort, supplying weapons used against Ukraine.
Asked about the likelihood of Iran's interests being compromised in talks between Moscow and Washington, Falahatpisheh said, "Political developments since 2021 have shown that international variables directly affect Iran's nuclear diplomacy and its position in global affairs."
He recalled that three years ago, when Iran and the West were close to reaching a nuclear deal, Russia formally urged the United States to exempt Iran-Russia trade from US sanctions on both countries. However, Washington rejected the request, viewing it as an attempt by Moscow to exploit the nuclear negotiations for its own benefit.
The politician accused Russia of deceiving Iran and obstructing the revival of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal at the time. Expressing concern over Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to Iran, he warned, "Once again, the Russians might use Iran as leverage in their dealings with Washington."
Meanwhile, Iranian foreign policy analyst Qasem Mohebali told the conservative Nameh News website that "Russia's mediation between Iran and the United States is unlikely to benefit Iran."
"It appears that the Americans have promised certain concessions to Russia regarding the Ukraine war, and in return, Russia has agreed to offer some concessions to Washington concerning Iran," Mohebali said.
However, he argued that this arrangement is not in Iran’s best interest, as "Russia is likely to use Iran as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with the United States over Ukraine." He also questioned the effectiveness of mediation by a country that is itself engaged in negotiations to resolve its own challenges.
"Iran is in an ambiguous international position," Mohebali concluded. "However, the disputes between Europe and the Arab states on one side and the United States on the other, along with the divide between Russia and America, provide Iran with an opportunity to extract some concessions. Still, Moscow's mediation is unlikely to serve Tehran’s interests."