Iran International
The United States imposed new sanctions last week on an international network accused of transferring Iranian oil to China, the first such measure under President Donald Trump’s so-called maximum pressure policy on Iran.
The US Treasury Department said the network has transported millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil, generating hundreds of millions of dollars used to fund Iran’s armed forces and Tehran's allies in the region.
Who is targeted by these sanctions?
The sanctions primarily target Sepehr Energy, a front company allegedly financing Iran’s General Staff of the Armed Forces, according to the Treasury.
A secret fleet of oil tankers and transport management firms involved in smuggling Iranian oil has also been blacklisted.
Sepehr Energy, established in 2010, has been linked to key figures in Iran’s petrochemical sector, with investments in methanol and ammonia plants.
Additionally, several individuals and three oil tankers registered under Panamanian and Hong Kong flags have been sanctioned.
Why now?
President Trump said during his campaign that he would resume his so-called maximum pressure policy against Iran once he's in office.
The main driver, as confirmed by the administration, is concern that Tehran might be closer than ever to a nuclear weapon.
“We will use all available tools to hold Iran accountable for its destabilizing activities and pursuit of nuclear weapons,” a Treasury spokesperson said.
The sanctions are enforced by the Departments of Treasury, State, and Justice. The Trump administration asserts that these steps are necessary to protect national security and that of its allies.
What do the sanctions aim to do?
The sanctions are structured around several coordinated measures, implemented by multiple US agencies:
The US aims to pressure Iran’s main oil buyers, particularly China, to halt purchases of Iranian crude, impacting Tehran’s foreign currency reserves. There may also be attempts, with US allies' help, to intercept and seize Iranian oil shipments on international routes.
Previously granted exemptions, such as those for Chabahar Port development projects, are now under review and likely to be canceled.
The US will target accounts, shell companies and funding channels associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iranian government assets within the US and abroad, deemed by Washington to be involved in financing terrorism or evading sanctions, will be seized.
Dual-use goods with both civilian and military applications will face tighter controls.
What else?
The US Department of Justice will prosecute individuals involved in espionage, cyber threats, and terrorism financing on behalf of Iran.
The Department of State will lead an international campaign to limit Iran’s influence in global organizations, pressure its allies and restrict travel by Iranian officials.
What would be the implications for Iran?
These sanctions could significantly reduce Iran’s oil revenues, deplete its foreign currency reserves, and trigger higher inflation and a decline in the rial’s value.
Seizing oil shipments may also disrupt Iran’s unofficial export channels.
As pressure mounts, Iran may reduce cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or strengthen ties with countries such as China and Russia.
Given Iran’s regional influence, the sanctions could heighten tensions in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea and along the borders of Syria and Lebanon.
Iran may retaliate by ramping up uranium enrichment or boosting the capabilities of its regional allies.
What are the challenges in implementing the sanctions?
Despite the sanctions’ scope, implementation faces hurdles.
China may continue purchasing Iranian oil, while Iran’s extensive experience with informal financial networks could help it maintain some oil sales through intermediaries.
Economic pressure could provoke countermeasures from Iran, regionally or through its nuclear program.
Trump’s return to the maximum pressure strategy aims to curtail Iran’s influence, but its success depends on how serious the administration is in enforcing the measures and how cooperative other major international players are.
Javan newspaper, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), cited an unnamed advisor to former president Hassan Rouhani as saying on Sunday that "If the president does not bring the negotiations to fruition, he should give up and leave the presidential office before the winter snow falls in Tehran."
The article by Javan said that such a sentiment about the administration of President Masoud Pezeshkian resonates with both supporters and critics of the government.
"This idea is gaining traction not only among government loyalists but also among its opponents," Javan said, noting that some newly emerged “suspicious” political factions, particularly those that surfaced after the recent elections, appear to be maneuvering to render Pezeshkian ineffective—blocking negotiations and steering him toward a scenario where he either resigns voluntarily or faces a turbulent path toward impeachment in parliament.
"This push for the president's removal is like the two blades of a scissor, cutting deeper into the political landscape and driving the country toward a major crisis before the year’s end."
Javan claimed that, according to enemy intelligence services, growing public discontent fueled by government inefficiency, rising poverty, and inequality could trigger protests in Iran, potentially leading to unrest similar to the events of November 2019.
In 2019, a wave of nationwide protests in Iran, known as Bloody November, erupted following a fuel price hike. What began as economic grievances quickly escalated into demands for the overthrow of the government and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. According to various sources, security forces killed at least 1,500 protesters between November 15 and 17.
The Pezeshkian administration is caught between opposing pressures. While urged to ease US sanctions, it faces a firm ban on talks with Washington imposed by the Supreme Leader on Friday.
Since Khamenei’s rejection, Iran’s currency, the rial, has been in freefall, hitting a record low of 915,000 per US dollar on Sunday.
“Negotiating with such a government should not be done; it is neither wise, intelligent nor honorable,” said the 85-year-old cleric during a meeting with air force personnel in Tehran.“No problem will be solved through negotiations with the United States,” he added.
Also on Sunday, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, a member of the Expediency Discernment Council and a close aide to Khamenei, said, “Those who support negotiations with Trump should clarify what they are willing to offer in a deal to persuade him to lift the sanctions.”
He added, “Mr. Khamenei presents arguments for his stance; those in favor of negotiating with Trump should also provide their reasoning.”
Sociologist Taghi Azad Armaki, in an interview with Etemad newspaper, also warned of potential protests, citing "high prices, the rising dollar rate, high rents, health problems, emigration, and absolute poverty" as key pressures on the population.
"These issues remain unresolved," he warned, "and if not addressed, will soon manifest as widespread protests." He criticized “extremist groups” opposed to negotiations for undermining the administration, stating that they must be controlled and act in the interests of the ruling establishment.
Referring to hardliners, Armaki added, "If extremism is not curbed in the current situation, it will continue to take the form of a widespread wave and will harm the entire system. Social crises should not be allowed to turn into security crises."
Prominent commentator Ahmad Zeidabadi also criticized Friday prayer leaders, accusing them of delivering contradictory and confusing messages.
During Friday prayers, chants opposing negotiations with the US and their supporters—including Vice President for Strategic Affairs Javad Zarif—echoed as Khamenei's representatives, the Friday prayer imams, denounced the idea.
Zeidabadi also condemned the attempts of hardliners who say there is no need for talks with the US because it would not solve Iran's financial crisis. "They routinely blame America for all of the country's cultural, social, and political problems," Zeidabadi wrote, "even though the US neither claims nor has the ability to create them. Yet, when it comes to economic issues, they attribute nearly all problems to internal mismanagement while dismissing the impact of America's extensive sanctions. The contradictions have become deafening."
