PODCAST: Israel's next move against Iran may be in Lebanon, Knesset member hints

Iran has been threatening Israel for more than a week that it will ‘avenge’ the blood of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran on 31 July.

The Biden administration has been trying to dissuade Iran behind the scenes. On Friday, however, the talk was accompanied by a stern walk when reports emerged that the US is set to provide Israel with $3.5 billion to spend on US weapons and military equipment, hours after White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said the US was ready to defend Israel with “plenty of resources” in the region.

"When we hear rhetoric like that, we've got to take it seriously, and we do," he said in reaction to remarks by the deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), who had said Iran saw as its “duty” to punish Israel severely.

Iran’s previous retaliatory attack against Israel in April was nullified by the combined efforts of a US-led coalition that helped intercept missiles and drones launched from Iranian territory. This time, it seems the Biden administration has taken the threat more seriously and has not only warned Iran of “serious consequences” but also released the funds that the Congress had appropriated since April

According to a CNN report Friday, the State Department has notified lawmakers that the administration wants to release the money so that Israel can purchase “advanced weapons systems”, as Israel braces for an attack by Iran and (likely) Hezbollah.

The “systems” would not be delivered to Israel immediately and some may even take “several” years to be ready, according to sources who spoke with CNN. The timing of the announcement, however, seems to be intended as yet another message by the US to both Iran and Israel, clarifying the Biden administration’s stance if its diplomatic efforts to prevent an all-out war were to fail.

The message has been taken by the more moderate parts of the state, the newly elected president Masoud Pezeshkian, in particular, who, as Iran International reported a few days ago, tried to implore the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to hold back the attack against Israel for fears that it would adversely impact his term –even before he’s gotten to form his cabinet.

Khamenei has shown no sign that he agreed to Pezehkian’s plea. Many more signs exist to the contrary, in fact, as IRGC commanders keep promising to attack Israel.

“The Supreme Leader’s directives regarding severe punishment of Israel and avenging the blood of Ismail Haniyeh are clear and explicit,” IRGC lieutenant commander Ali Fadavi said Friday. “These directives will be carried out in the best possible way, and this is Iran's current duty.”

This message was reiterated Friday by IRGC’s Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani, who said that the attack on Israel this time will be harsher than the one in April. “We are preparing to avenge [Haniyeh’s] blood, a painful and difficult incident that happened in the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is our duty," Qaani wrote in a letter to Haniyeh’s successor, Yahya Sinwar.

Qaani also emphasized the role of Tehran-backed regional militias within the "Resistance Front" in the retaliation, stating, "The heroic jihad of your brothers in the Islamic Resistance will amplify the impact of the punishment more than ever before and will lead to the swift eradication of this malevolent phenomenon."

"There is not only no disagreement at the strategic level of the Islamic Republic, but there is also a rare level of determination, unity, and consensus among the country's officials," the source told Tasnim.

"The way Iran will respond will be decided at the highest level, specifically at the Supreme National Security Council, which is chaired by the President," the source added.

On Wednesday, Iran International exclusively reported that Pezeshkian had urgently appealed with Khamenei to abstain from launching an attack on Israel, warning of the catastrophic consequences such an action could have on his presidency.

Pezeshkian cautioned that an Israeli decision to retaliate forcefully against Iran's national infrastructure and energy resources could devastate the Iranian economy, potentially precipitating the country's collapse.

In their third letter to Pezeshkian in less than a month, Farshad Momeni and Hossein Raghfar stated that their previous letters to President Pezeshkian have gone unanswered, despite being among the economists he initially consulted for ideas on addressing Iran's economic problems.

They expressed disappointment in the president's actions so far, but still offered criticism and guidance to the new administration. They urged Pezeshkian to distance himself from the economic policies of the past 35 years, which have caused significant hardships for the Iranian people.

Iran has a government-dominated economy, where almost 80 percent of enterprises are either directly or indirectly owned and controlled by state entities. This, coupled with a lack of democratic accountability and transparency has led to increasing corruption in the past three decades.

Meanwhile, the Islamic regime's confrontational foreign policy and its contentious nuclear program have triggered international sanctions, which have severely hindered foreign investment, the import of technology and expertise, and overall economic growth.

The two economists emphasized that only a fundamental "change of course" in economic policy can create opportunities for growth and improvement in Iran. They criticized Pezeshkian’s selection of cabinet ministers and state officials, noting that many informed scholars, including some of his own supporters, have questioned the validity of these choices. They warned that collaborating with individuals responsible for previous policy failures, particularly in agriculture and industry, would undermine public trust in Pezeshkian and his promises.

Momeni and Raghfar also cautioned Pezeshkian that despite his promises and the public’s expectations, he has yet to take steps to involve the people in determining their political and economic future. They argued that the first step to reversing Iran's counterproductive policies is to implement technology-friendly development plans, productive employment policies, and social justice initiatives—areas where no progress has been made so far.

The economists offered several specific suggestions, calling for greater transparency in Pezeshkian’s selection of cabinet ministers and other officials. They advised against making decisions "behind closed doors" and warned Pezeshkian to avoid working with those responsible for the failed policies of the past 35 years.

They further emphasized that revenues from the country's natural resources should be used to invest in infrastructure, human resources, communications, energy, and improving livelihoods, rather than being diverted to benefit a select few. The economists also suggested reforming the tax system to prevent the undue influence of powerful and wealthy individuals, recommending that it be brought under the direct supervision of the President.

Additional recommendations included reforming the monetary system to channel funds toward productive sectors, removing military and security forces from economic activities, encouraging the private sector, promoting social justice, and prioritizing national interests over those of a minority.

Despite these suggestions, the economists noted that Pezeshkian has ignored similar advice in the past. They also warned that it may be too late for some of these recommendations, as rumors suggest that decisions about key government appointments have already been made, even if not yet announced.

Rasaei, who was executed earlier that morning in western Iran, had been arrested during the nationwide 2022 protests. His execution sparked widespread global condemnation including protests by political prisoners at Evin.

According to information obtained by Iran International, the protest at Evin women’s ward began when the prisoners received news of Rasaei's execution. They gathered in the prison courtyard, chanting slogans against the death penalty. The protest was met with a violent response from prison authorities, led by Hadi Mohammadi, the deputy officer in charge. Guards, acting on the deputy’s orders, violently dispersed the protesters, severely beating several women.

Among the injured was Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, who suffered a “respiratory attack and intense chest pain, causing her to collapse and faint,” after being beaten by prison guards along with several other inmates, according to a statement released by her family on Thursday.

“The women's ward was flooded with armed guards, and an order was issued to assault the protesters. Several women who stood in front of the security forces were severely beaten. The confrontation escalated, resulting in physical injuries for some prisoners and nervous breakdowns for others,” the statement said.

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has sounded the alarm over the safety of political prisoners in Evin Prison, including Narges Mohammadi and journalist-activist Sarvenaz Ahmadi.

"The lives of Narges Mohammadi, Sarvenaz Ahmadi, and all political prisoners in various prisons are in danger. They are paying the price for the insatiable totalitarianism of the Islamic Republic,” Ebadi said in a post on Instagram.

Political prisoner Varisheh Moradi, who is facing charges that could result in the death penalty, was also among those injured during the assault. After being beaten by the officers, she sustained a serious wrist injury, and bruises across various parts of her body.

Sarvanaz Ahmadi collapsed from a panic attack, while Samaneh Asghari, Reyhaneh Ansarinejad, and Sepideh Qoliyan were kicked and spat on by officers. Sarina Jahani and Mahboubeh Rezaei suffered severe beating, leaving them with splinted hands and intense pain. Nasrin Khazari Javadi, Houra Nikbakht, and Rana Korkur fainted during the assault, requiring oxygen treatment. Parivash Moslemi was also severely beaten, causing extensive bruising and pain.

Despite sustaining injuries, at least 15 of the prisoners have been denied medical care and have not been transferred to the hospital for treatment.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights condemns Iran’s executions surge

This incident occurred amidst an alarming increase in executions in Iran, drawing international concern. Despite global condemnation of Rasaei’s execution, at least 29 more people were executed just a day later, on Wednesday.

On Friday, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk, expressed extreme concern over reports that Iranian authorities had executed 29 people in the last two days. "This represents an alarmingly high number of executions in such a short period of time," said UN Human Rights Office spokesperson Liz Throssell.

Though the death toll could not be independently verified by the United Nations, the reported executions bring the total number to at least 345 this year, including 15 women.

Throssell also highlighted the disproportionate impact of these executions on minorities, including Kurds, Hawassi Arabs, and Baluch, and condemned the use of the death penalty for drug-related offenses. "Imposing the death penalty for offenses not involving intentional killing is incompatible with international human rights norms and standards," she stated.

The crackdown on Evin’s prisoners and the broader surge in executions reflect the ongoing human rights crisis in Iran, despite the election of President Masoud Pezeshkian in July. Since his election, at least 87 people have been executed, raising further concerns about the future of human rights under his administration.

Last year Amnesty International reported that of all recorded executions globally, Iran accounted for 74% with at least 853 people put to death.

The Microsoft Threat Intelligence Report, released on Friday, details how these groups have been setting up and launching influence campaigns aimed at swaying voters, particularly in swing states, while also conducting operations to gather intelligence on political campaigns, potentially laying the groundwork for future interference.

The report revealed that an Iranian group named Storm-2035 has launched covert news sites targeting both left-leaning and conservative US voters, using AI to plagiarize content and promote divisive political messages.

Another group called Sefid Flood has been preparing since March for potentially extreme influence operations, including “intimidation or inciting violence against political figures,” aiming to incite chaos, undermine authorities, and sow doubt about election integrity.

IRGC-linked hackers targeting senior officials before US election

Moreover, Microsoft reported that Mint Sandstorm—a group run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence unit—attempted to hack the account of a senior US official involved in a presidential campaign.

The incident involving what Microsoft called a “high ranking official” happened in June, just weeks after a breach discovered on the account of a county-level US official.

"A group run by the IRGC intelligence unit sent a spear-phishing email to a high-ranking official of a presidential campaign” and “another group with assessed links to the IRGC compromised a user account with minimal access permissions at a county-level government,” the report said, directly naming Iran.

Additionally, in May, Peach Sandstorm—another group linked to the IRGC—compromised the account of "a county-level government employee in a swing state." Microsoft noted that this group has been active since September 2023, primarily targeting US government organizations in swing states.

US intelligence officials recently admitted that Iran had ramped up the use of clandestine social media accounts with the aim to use them to try to sow political discord before the polls.

Iran has denied the allegations, with a statement from the UN Mission in New York to Reuters saying that the country’s cyber capabilities were "defensive and proportionate to the threats it faces" and that it had no plans to launch cyber-attacks.

"The US presidential election is an internal matter in which Iran does not interfere," the mission told Reuters in response to the allegations in the Microsoft report.

Microsoft also noted that the latest incident is part of an increase in activity trying to glean intelligence on US political campaigns and attempting to target swing states.

The successful breach in May of a county-level employee's account, Microsoft said, was part of a "password spray operation" in which hackers use common or leaked passwords en masse until they can break into one. However, no other accounts were breached.

Another Iranian group had launched “covert” news sites, Microsoft added, using AI to lift content from legitimate sources in order to target US voters across the political spectrum. It named Nio Thinker, a left-leaning site, and a conservative site called Savannah Time, which both share similar formats but without any contact details.

The US intelligence warned in July that, in addition to Iran, Russia and China were also conducting clandestine operations ahead of the upcoming elections. The three "rogue" states have been recruiting people in the US to spread propaganda, though the Iranian government denies the allegations.

As the elections near, the US remains on high alert for Iranian attacks. The 2024 annual threat assessment warned that "ahead of the US election in 2024, Iran may attempt to conduct influence operations aimed at US interests, including targeting US elections, having demonstrated a willingness and capability to do so in the past."

The assessment noted that during the US election cycle in 2020, Iranian cyber actors obtained or attempted to obtain US voter information, sent threatening emails to voters, and disseminated disinformation about the election.

"The same Iranian actors have evolved their activities and developed a new set of techniques, combining cyber and influence capabilities, that Iran
could deploy during the US election cycle in 2024," the report added.

In the 2020 election campaign, the FBI reported that Iranian operatives impersonated members of the right-wing Proud Boys group as part of a voter intimidation effort. Two men were charged.

Later that year, Iranian hackers breached a website that a municipal government in the US used to publish election results, though the attackers were caught before carrying out any nefarious activity, US cybersecurity officials said.

As the campaign ramps up, on Wednesday, the US State Department identified six alleged Iranian officials accused of compromising industrial control systems used by American public utilities.

Offering a $10m reward for information on their identity and whereabouts, the US said the six officials are linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Cyber-Electronic Command (IRGC-CEC).

One of the men named was Hamid Reza Lashgarian. head of the IRGC’s cyber-electronic command and a commander in the IRGC-Qods Force.

The suspects have also been linked to the hacking group CyberAv3ngers, which in October, publicly took credit for cyberattacks against Israeli PLCs.

It is part of an ongoing cyber-war launched by Tehran. In February, the US imposed sanctions on the same six individuals for their “deliberate targeting of critical infrastructure.”

A Treasury Department official condemned the attacks as “unconscionable and dangerous,” emphasizing that the US “will not tolerate such actions and will use the full range of our tools and authorities to hold the perpetrators to account.”

In April, the US imposed sanctions on four men and two companies accused of conducting cyber-attacks for the Iranian military. The US Treasury Department said they were involved in "malicious cyber-activity" to the benefit of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' Cyber-Electronic Command (IRGC-CEC).

Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian E. Nelson, said: “Iranian malicious cyber actors continue to target US companies and government entities in a coordinated, multi-pronged campaign intended to destabilize our critical infrastructure and cause harm to our citizens."

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller also said in a statement that Washington “will not tolerate malicious cyber activities victimizing US companies”.

The US Justice Department and FBI simultaneously unsealed an indictment against the four men accusing them of participating in a coordinated hacking initiative starting around 2016 through to April 2021, targeting American firms and crucial government departments.

In June, Microsoft President Brad Smith revealed that the company detects around 300 million cyberattacks targeting its customers daily, with a majority originating from China, Iran, North Korea and Russia.

As Iran steps up its cyber war globally, cybersecurity firm Check Point revealed last month that the Iranian hacker group MuddyWater has expanded its operations to countries such as Azerbaijan, Portugal, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and India, using newly developed malware.

International organizations, including the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, have attributed MuddyWater to Iran's ministry of intelligence.

MuddyWater, also known as APT34 and OilRig, has been active for several years, focusing on cyber-espionage against private and governmental organizations in the Middle East and Western countries.