Iran International
In the first debate among Iran’s presidential candidates, hardliners denied the impact of nuclear-related sanctions, while two candidates said improving international ties is crucial for fixing the economy.
The three-hour long debate on Monday among six hand-picked candidates was focused on “controlling inflation and growth of production”. Three of the five televised debates planned before the June 28 elections will focus on economy. The next debate is scheduled for June 20.
In the debates and interviews, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, incumbent Mayor of Tehran Alireza Zakani, and hardliner Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi defended the “achievements” of Raisi’s administration. They faced opposition from pro-reform Masoud Pezeshkian, moderate-conservative Mostafa Pourmohammadi, and at times Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, who criticized the administration's performance in veiled terms.
Hardliner candidates are acutely aware of the Raisi administration's disastrous economic performance, yet they refuse to take responsibility for it and sometimes even praise it, according to France-based journalist Seraj Mirdamadi. “But they blame [the pro-reform Masoud] Pezeshkian unfairly for the performance of [Hassan] Rouhani’s government.”
Speaking in vague and difficult to understand terms, Jalili, insisted that sanctions did not matter, and that the state of the economy could be improved by relying on “domestic potentials,” an argument often made by loyalists of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. According to him, an economic growth rate of eight percent as prescribed by the 7th Development Plan is feasible, while others argue that tens of billions of dollars is needed to achieve such a high rate.
Ghalibaf, however, prescribed negotiations to lift the sanctions if for every step that Iran took, presumably to limit its nuclear program, the Western side was prepared to provide adequate incentives in return.
Ghalibaf has been criticized for calling the removal of sanctions a priority for his government, while the parliament in December 2020 under his leadership approved a bill hardening Iran’s negotiating position. “Why did you approve the catastrophic ‘Strategic Action Plan to Lift the Sanctions’ to prevent the revival of the JCPOA?” reformist commentator Abbas Abdi asked Ghalibaf in a tweet.
The December 2020 legislation called for reducing Iran's commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal and obliged the government to escalate the nuclear crisis.
All of the four hardliners, including Ghalibaf, insist that the sanctions are “unfair” and “cruel” but also argue that Iran has succeeded in circumventing them and is selling its oil without much trouble.
In a tweet after the debates, political commentator Reza Nasri contended that hardliners’ claims were contradictory. “How can sanctions which ‘are not a problem anymore’ and have been neutralized be ‘cruel’ at the same time?” he asked.
However, there is a major divide between Ghalibaf and Jalili who is the candidate of ultra-hardliners. Their supporters have been highly intolerant of each other, insisting that one must withdraw in favor of the other to ensure the presidency remains within the "revolutionary front."
Zakani and Ghazizadeh-Hashemi, neither of whom has a realistic chance of winning, appeared to play a supporting role for Jalili in the debate. They may withdraw in his favor after the debates, similar to how Jalili withdrew in favor of Raisi in the 2021 elections.
In contrast to the hardliners, pro-reformist Pezeshkian and moderate-conservative Pourmohammadi emphasized the crippling impact of sanctions. They called for improving relations with the international community as a means to help Iran overcome its economic difficulties.
Many observers noted that Pourmohammadi, who spoke more clearly and openly than the other candidates, appeared to be the strongest contender in the debate. But there are no independent opinion polls in Iran, and it is impossible to gauge the impact of the debate.
Pezeshkian emphasized the detrimental impact of sanctions and strained international relations on the country’s economy, asserting that all political groups must collaborate to effectively implement existing economic plans. He argued that what his rivals term 'circumventing sanctions' has often led to corruption.
For the first time in the history of election debates, candidates were shown participating in a group prayer before heading to the studio, where they took their seats assigned by a draw.
Candidates largely avoided seriously challenging each other or criticizing the economic failures of the Raisi administration, following the "recommendation" of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The state broadcaster had warned the candidates beforehand that any mudslinging or discussion of irrelevant topics during the debate would result in immediate and direct intervention by the Election Campaign Regulation Committee.
According to a telephone poll conducted by Shenakht, a polling agency claiming to be private, between June 15-16 with a sample of 1,000 respondents, Ghalibaf secured the support of 29 percent of voters who were certain or undecided about voting. He was followed by Masoud Pezeshkian with 21 percent and Saeed Jalili with 18 percent. However, different polls conducted by different government or political groups reveal different results. Overall, none of these polls can be considered fully reliable.
Some politicians indicate that discussions are currently taking place between the Ghalibaf and Jalili camps to decide whether one of them should withdraw to counter Pezeshkian's competition.
In response to a question during one of his televised interviews about the possibility of one or more “revolutionary” candidates withdrawing to boost another's votes, Ghalibaf claimed he was “more prepared” than the other candidates, hinting that he expected Jalili to withdraw.
However, on Monday, Jalili’s campaign manager Mohsen Mansouri refuted any possibility of withdrawal unless they determine there is “a candidate better than Mr. Jalili.”
Amid apparent voter apathy and anti-government sentiment among Iranians, some insights can still be gleaned from a combination of Google Trends analysis and social media polls with shifting interest in candidates and different results depending on the political orientation of social media followers of different channels.
Reformist groups prefer Masoud Pezeshkian, known as a 'moderate' politician, but exhibiting conservative tendencies during his election campaign. On the other hand, hardliners generally favor Saeed Jalili, a firebrand politician opposed to friendly ties with the West and a nuclear deal limiting Iran's atomic program.
The head of Iran's cyberspace police, Vahid Majid, issued a warning on Sunday, emphasizing the prohibition on publishing unofficial polls about the upcoming presidential elections, as reported by Hamshahri Online in Tehran. Additionally last week, Iran's state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) also warned against non-IRIB affiliated polls stating that it only recognizes official polls conducted by its research center, dismissing polls online or other channels.
Despite this restriction, Google Trends data is accessible, and some Iran-based media organizations and news channels have run polls on their Telegram channels. In this report, an analysis of ten Telegram channels with unofficial polls has also been included.
Google Trends Data: Pezeshkian Leads the Way
The Google searches of Iranian internet users reflected in the Google Trends data analysis by Iran-based Khabaronline during the past 7 days provides a perspective of Iranian users' indication of curiosity in the candidate.
Google specifically outlines that search data is an indication of curiosity about the subject or candidate and that it should not be considered an indication of voter intent.
The first Google Trends graph shows a comparison of Google searches of the six candidates' names made by users in Iran from the afternoon of Sunday, June 9, 2024, to the afternoon of Sunday, June 16, 2024, local time.
The search terms include the names of the six candidates in Persian and color-coded in the graph: Masoud Pezeshkian (blue), Saeed Jalili (red), Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (yellow), Mostafa Pourmohammadi (green), Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi (purple) and, Alireza Zakani (purple). Given that Google Trends only allows for up to 5 groups of terms at a time Ghazizadeh and Zakani are marked in purple.
In the first hours following the official announcement of the six presidential candidates, the sole 'reformist' candidate Masoud Pezeshkian emerged as the most searched candidate among Iranian users. He was initially followed by Mostafa Pourmohammadi, with Saeed Jalili and Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi trailing behind, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Alireza Zakani coming last in search interest.
However, within two hours, Pourmohammadi was overtaken by Jalili. Over the subsequent seven days, except for certain hours, Pourmohammadi remained in fourth place.
As the initial surprise over Masoud Pezeshkian's candidacy subsided, the gap between him and Saeed Jalili in search interest gradually narrowed. Despite this, Pezeshkian continued to attract more attention overall compared to the other candidates. The peak of searches for Pezeshkian occurred at midnight on June 13, when his appearance on state TV significantly boosted his Google searches.
This pattern of heightened interest following television appearances was observed with other candidates as well. When candidates addressed specific topics on TV, it noticeably influenced the trends of Google searches. This trend is stronger in the case of Jalili and Ghalibaf than in the other three candidates (Pourmohammadi, Ghazizadeh Hashemi, and Zakani).
Provincial Breakdown
The national average (Iran) shows that during the past week, Masoud Pezeshkian leads with a significant 43% of search interest, followed by Saeed Jalili at 23%. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf maintains a moderate level of interest with 13%, while Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, and Alireza Zakani receive lower percentages of 9%, 7%, and 5% respectively.
Masoud Pezeshkian is more popular in the northern and western half of the country in West Azerbaijan Province and Ilam Province, and it is only in the provinces of South Khorasan and Qom that Saeed Jalili has attracted more attention by a small margin. Interestingly, the share of search results to the other 4 candidates (Ghalibaf, Pourmohammadi, Ghazizadeh Hashemi, and Zakani) in the provinces of the country does not show a specific and decisive difference.
Examining non-scientific polls from prominent Telegram channels reveals varying degrees of candidate support and voter engagement. Pezeshkian consistently leads in several of these online polls. Saeed Jalili also maintains a strong position. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also emerges prominently in Telegram polls with substantial subscriber bases.
"Do You Know Magazine” Telegram Channel
The "Do You Know Magazine" entertainment Telegram channel, with over 2 million users, conducted a now-deleted non-scientific poll that garnered 64,156 votes. According to the poll results, 71% of participants indicated they would vote for none of the candidates. Among those who expressed a preference, Masoud Pezeshkian received 11% of the votes, followed by Saeed Jalili at 10%, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at 5%, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi at 2%, Alireza Zakani at 1%, and Mostafa Pourmohammadi did not receive any votes.
Akharin Khabar
Akharin Khabar’s Telegram channel, with over 2 million subscribers, conducted a poll with 143,669 participants. According to the results, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf leads with 32%, followed by Saeed Jalili at 28%. Masoud Pezeshkian garnered 19% of the votes, while Alireza Zakani received 3%. Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi and the "View Results" option, which displays the poll results without being a voting choice, each obtained 2% of the viewership. Mostafa Pourmohammadi did not receive any votes in the poll.
Khabar Farda
Khabar Farda, a Telegram channel with 780,000 subscribers, conducted a poll with 45,747 participants. The results show Masoud Pezeshkian leading with 27%, followed by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with 16%, and Saeed Jalili with 10%. Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi received 2% of the votes, while Alireza Zakani and Mostafa Pourmohammadi did not receive any votes. Additionally, 45% of participants chose the "View Results" option, which displays the poll results without casting a vote.
Khabar
Khabar, a news Telegram channel with 577,635 subscribers, conducted a poll with 23,940 participants. According to the results, Masoud Pezeshkian received a commanding lead with 64% of the votes, showcasing strong support among the channel's audience. Saeed Jalili followed with 20%, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf garnered 8%, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi obtained 4%, while both Alireza Zakani and Mostafa Pourmohammadi received 2% each.
Masaf Institute
The controversial Masaf Institute, associated with a recent fraud and money laundering scandal and headed by ultra-hardliner politician Ali-Akbar Raefipour, conducted a poll on their Telegram channel, which has 183,990 subscribers. The poll received 65,734 votes, with the following results: Saeed Jalili received the highest support with 65%, followed by Masoud Pezeshkian at 19%, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at 10%, Alireza Zakani at 2%, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi at 3%, and Mostafa Pourmohammadi at 1%.
Efsha News
Efsha News, an entertainment news channel on Telegram with 184,774 subscribers, conducted a poll that garnered 25,594 votes. According to the results, 57% of participants indicated they would not vote, while Saeed Jalili received 19% of the votes and Masoud Pezeshkian 17%. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf garnered 4%, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi received 2%, and Alireza Zakani obtained 1%. Mostafa Pourmohammadi did not receive any votes.
Entekhab News
Entekhab News, a 'reformist' newspaper with a Telegram channel boasting 155,410 subscribers, conducted a poll that garnered 70,099 votes. According to the results, Masoud Pezeshkian leads with 39% of the votes, indicating significant support among the channel's audience. Saeed Jalili follows closely behind with 36%, positioning him as a strong contender in the poll. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf received 7% of the votes, while Alireza Zakani, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, and Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi did not receive any votes. Additionally, 17% of participants indicated they have not yet reached a decision.
Donyaye Eghtesad
Donyaye Eghtesad (World of Economy), Iran's leading economic newspaper, on Telegram with 61,934 subscribers, conducted a poll that received 11,971 votes. According to the results, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf leads with 37% of the votes. Masoud Pezeshkian follows with 21%, while Saeed Jalili received 15% support. Alireza Zakani, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, and Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi did not receive any votes in the poll. Additionally, 27% of participants chose to view the results without casting a vote.
Presidential Election News Channel
In a poll conducted by this Telegram channel with 106,765 subscribers and 51,157 participants, Masoud Pezeshkian leads with 43% of the votes, followed by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at 32%, and Saeed Jalili with 19%. Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi received 3%, Alireza Zakani 2%, and Mostafa Pourmohammadi obtained 1% of the votes.
Shargh News
Shargh News, a prominent Telegram channel with 22,527 subscribers, conducted a poll with 11,597 participants. The results indicate that Saeed Jalili is the frontrunner with 30% of the votes, followed closely by Masoud Pezeshkian with 28%. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf garnered 22%, Alireza Zakani received 19%, Mostafa Pourmohammadi 1%, and Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi did not receive any votes.
