Former Iranian minister and long-time intelligence official Ali Rabiei has criticized the government’s domestic policies and Iran's inherent weaknesses amid Tehran’s increasing tensions with Israel.
In an article published in Etemad daily on Friday, Ali Rabiei listed multiple crises and problems the Iranian government is currently facing. He emphasized that without addressing these issues, it would be unwise for Tehran to engage in a potential direct conflict with Israel, which would only exacerbate the situation.
Rabiei stressed the need for wise governance and effective crisis management. "We must first mitigate the impacts of existing crises to prevent the collapse of the system," he emphasized.
He pointed to economic crises including inflation hovering around 50%, declining social cohesion, and the prevailing psychological instability within society as some of the pressing crises confronting the country and its political leadership. Given these circumstances, Rabiei advocated for the adoption of "conciliatory policies" to reduce tensions and foster unity and empathy within society.
Multiple nationwide anti-regime protests have shaken the clerical-military rulers of the Islamic Republic since 2018. Security forces have killed thousands of protesters and jailed tens of thousands of others to quell the largest unrests in November 2019 and in 2022-23. In the parliamentary elections on March 1, a sizeable majority of voters stayed home, further damaging the legitimacy of the ruling apparatus.
Although Rabiei did not explicitly mention the government’s compulsory hijab policy in his article, his statements could be interpreted as implicit criticism of the controversial hijab enforcement campaign initiated by law enforcement agencies, which came into effect on Saturday.
Earlier in the day, Iranian media reported the arrest of the wife and daughter of Ahmadreza Abedzadeh, a prominent figure in Iranian football history, in Tehran for refusing to comply with hijab regulations. Many women have forsaken the hijab, a phenomenon deeply unsettling for the ruling clerics, who see women’s defiance as a direct challenge to their ideological hold over the society.
The regime's repressive domestic policies and mounting pressures, particularly on women, have fueled widespread dissatisfaction and delegitimized the government. Similarly, Tehran's foreign policy towards Israel, and its controversial nuclear program, have isolated the country and badly damaged its oil-dependent economy.
In recent days, Iranian officials have escalated their anti-Israel rhetoric and vowed revenge for Israel’s April 1 strike that killed seven IRGC forces in Damascus. On Saturday, IRGC naval forces seized a Portuguese-flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz, alleging it belonged to an Israeli billionaire.
However, the Iranian market does not seem to view the IRGC’s actions as a success, as evidenced by the record fall in the value of the national currency, the rial. On Saturday, the US dollar rose to the unprecedented level of 660,000 rials in Iran’s free market.
Meanwhile, the relatively independent news website Khabaronline reported a significant increase in criticism against President Ebrahim Raisi, with many of his supporters calling for a cabinet reshuffle to address the demands of the people. According to the website, economic fluctuations have severely impacted the prices of essential goods and people's livelihoods, necessitating urgent action to reverse the trend.
Eqtesad 24 news website reported in February that nearly one in every three Iranians currently lives below the poverty line due to soaring inflation over the past five years.
Follow developments on Iran International's Live coverage of ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel.
Earlier on Saturday, in an English-language video statement Daniel Hagari, the chief spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), said, "Iran funds, trains, and arms terror proxies across the Middle East and beyond…Iran will bear the consequences for choosing to escalate the situation any further.” He added that Israel is on high alert, increasing readiness to defend against Iranian aggression and prepared to respond.
The statement by Hagari comes shortly after the IRGC seized an Israeli-linked container ship near Strait of Hormuz today, and reports having surfaced yesterday, notably on ABC News, citing US officials stating that Iran has readied more than 100 cruise missiles for an imminent attack on Israel. Meanwhile, American officials, speaking to CNN, warned of a potential Iranian attack from within its territory with possible involvement of regional proxies in retaliatory strikes, targeting locations in Israel.
International efforts, including those from the United States and supported by European and UK allies, have been focused on de-escalating the situation and maintaining stability in the region.
Earlier today, UK foreign secretary David Cameron announced that he spoke to the Israeli minister and war cabinet member Benny Gantz and discussed “our shared concerns about Iranian threats to attack Israel” with Gantz. “Further escalation in the region is in no one’s interest and risks further loss of civilian life,” he added.
Furthermore, the UK Royal Marines stand ready to coordinate a significant evacuation of British citizens from the Middle East in case of an attack on Israel.
In response to the escalating tensions, yesterday, US President Joe Biden reiterated the his commitment to Israel's security while warning of a confirmed retaliatory attack by Iran “sooner than later.". Meanwhile, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken engaged in discussions with his Jordanian counterpart to address the need to prevent further escalation by Iran. The Pentagon reiterated the US commitment to Israel's security against Iranian threats, echoing President Biden's support for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The visit of top US general Michael "Erik" Kurilla to Israel was expedited to address current security concerns, while Republican Senator Joni Ernst commended Biden's support for Israel amid tensions with Iran.
Safaei further reports that according to Israel TV Channel 11, even Hamas is waiting to see Tehran's reaction to the killing of IRGC commanders in Damascus. Meanwhile, Iran International's correspondent in Lebanon, May Farhat reports that Lebanon is also closely monitoring the situation and anticipating Iran's response with reports of increased Hezbollah activity along the Lebanon-Syria border, potentially preparing for military operations in line with Iran's retaliation. On the other hand, speaking to Iran International reporters, Fares Souaid, from the “National Council for the Ending Iranian Occupation" in Lebanon, stated that Iran won't escalate tensions further, attributing the situation to Israel's possible reaction suggesting that Iran prefers proxy conflicts over direct confrontation with Israel.
Several countries, including Germany, India, France, Poland, and Russia have responded by issuing travel warnings for citizens in Iran and suspending flights to the region. Germany has advised its citizens to leave Iran immediately.
Although no concrete evidence of an Iranian attack on Israel has been determined so far other than psychological warfare tactics, Israel's heightened alertness underscores the precarious situation in the region, with the specter of conflict looming amidst escalating tensions with Iran.