Iranian Expert Warns Of Increased Sanctions Under Potential Trump Presidency

The Israeli attack led to the deaths of seven Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members including two commanders on the compound believed to be a key base for the IRGC.

Hossein Amirabdollahian is accompanied by Vahid Jalalzadeh, the head of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Parliament.

Iran has pledged to retaliate for the deaths of its personnel in the strike. A senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader warned on Sunday that Israeli embassies were now potential targets.

Amirabdollahian, who initiated his regional tour in Muscat, where he engaged with Omani officials and met with a representative of Yemen's Houthi group, Mohamed Abdelsalam, condemned the attack while in Oman.

"The attack on Iran's embassy building in Damascus is a new step in Israel's warmongering and its attempt to expand war regionally," said Amirabdollahian.

The Omani Foreign Minister, Badr Al-Busaidi, also called for de-escalation during discussions with his Iranian counterpart. Meanwhile, Israel, in line with its usual practice, declined to comment on the incident when approached by media.

Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had previously stated that Israel was prepared for any potential retaliation from Iran.

Governments in the US, UK, and EU have long faced criticism for their unwillingness to confront an increasingly aggressive state that has is fast approaching the nuclear threshold and employs several proxies to cover its aggression in the Middle East.

Now, the "tentacles" of Iran’s terror network, as described in a recent Daily Mail exclusive, are stretching "across Western Europe," in what the paper calls "gangland hits."

The clerical-military rulers in Iran have two entities that plan such attacks, the ministry of intelligence and the Revolutionary Guard's (IRGC) intelligence organization. However, attempts to put the IRGC on Europe's and UK's terror lists have failed so far.

The report, detailing several recent Iranian plots overseas –including recent ones against Iran International and its journalists in London– suggests that this “terror campaign is being conducted with staggering impunity”, a direct result, perhaps, of the West’s confused, if not placating, approach to a state that has never hidden its intentions to intimidate or eliminate those it doesn’t like.

“Last month, it emerged, for example, that Iran had sent agents to a range of countries using the cover of Afghan asylum seekers,” Daily Mail reports. “One such couple lived in Sweden as part of a 'sleeper cell' until 2021 when they were 'activated', apparently to assassinate three prominent Jews. Fortunately, they were arrested by security services before the hit could be carried out.”

This is in line with what seems to be Iran’s default procedure these days: to hire willing operatives or outright criminals of non-Iranian origin to do its dirty jobs overseas.

Last December, 31-year old Chechnya-born Magomed-Husejn Dovtaev was sentenced to three-and-a-half years in jail by a court in Britain for collecting information for terrorist purposes. He had been arrested in a Starbucks near Iran International premises earlier that year, having been spotted filming the broadcaster’s building in West London.

One or two days before that verdict was issued, the British broadcaster ITV revealed that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) had plotted to assassinate two Iran International TV anchors in 2022, amid the channel’s round-the-clock coverage of widespread protests against the regime in Iran.

That plot was foiled because the man hired to do the job turned out to be a ‘double-agent’ working for a western intelligence agency. His communications with his IRGC handler, which he’d relay to his other handler in a western intelligence agency, and he later shared with ITV, betrayed a ‘kill’ operation sordidly called the Wedding, with the two targeted anchors, Sima Sabet and Fardad Farahzad, codenamed the Bride and the Groom.

Sabet and Farahzad escaped what could have been a tragic event, of which they knew very little until the ITV scoop. But their friend Pouria Zeraati, another Iran International anchor, was not so lucky.

Zeraati was stabbed right in front of his home in south London as he left for work. He survived the attack with leg injuries, perhaps because the attackers wanted to scare (not kill) him. They failed spectacularly if that was their intention. Zeraati returned to work right after he was discharged from hospital and presented his show a week later.

The Metropolitan Police has said that the three suspects involved in the incident fled the UK shortly after the attack, and that the ‘motive’ remains unclear. But the investigation is headed by the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command, due to a history of threats emanating from Iranian intelligence circles against Iran International journalists.

In the two years preceding the stabbing of Zeraati, Iran and its proxies had mounted at least 15 credible plots to kill dissidents or journalists on UK soil, according to Scotland Yard. Even more troubling, perhaps, is the suggestion by Daily Mail, that the MI5 has warned at least a dozen Iran International staff that the Islamic Republic’s Ministry of Intelligence may snatch them off the streets unless they quit.

Since its inception, the Islamic Republic of Iran, has been engaged in such plots against Iranian dissidents and journalists in exile. Not all attempts have been successful, but the regime has never ceased threatening and targeting those who dare speak against it, even those ostensibly safe in western Europe or the United States.

Many believe that the reluctance shown by American and European governments to exact a high price for Iran’s malign activities has contributed to its continuation. The culprits, even those found guilty, have often been handed back to Iran in ‘exchanges’ –made possible, in the first place, because the regime takes hostages where and when he can.

Many journalists (or dissidents) affected by Iran’s plots say their host nations (in the EU, UK or US) should do more, not just to arrest attackers or foil their plots, but to establish credible deterrence.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said on Sunday that the Israeli military “knows how to deal with Iran, in attack and defense.” He made the remarks as Iranian officials threaten to retaliate for Israel’s April 1 air strike that killed seven IRGC officers, including a senior commander of Quds Force, the extraterritorial wing of the IRGC.

Highlighting that Israel is “in a multi-front war,” Halevi said that “IDF troops are prepared and operating in all arenas, in the south, in the north, in Judea and Samaria and in more distant arenas.”

Halevi also highlighted that Israel is “cooperating with the United States and with strategic partners in the region," and that the IDF can “act forcefully against Iran in both near and distant places.”

“Iran does not only threaten Israel, but the entire Western and Arab world, Iran is a global problem, was and remains, the big problem,” he underlined.

His remarks came a few hours after Iranian General Yahya Rahim Safavi, the top military advisor of the Supreme Leader, reiterated threats against Israeli embassies worldwide, saying none of them are safe anymore. According to Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, Safavi said, “The shadow of fear and terror looms over the occupied lands, and the Zionists see the specter of death in their dreams every night.”

Halevi said that the IDF is fully prepared, emphasizing that “There is no reason to panic, but there is also no room for complacency. We must be aware of the situation, and always ready.”

He says that since the beginning of the war in Gaza, “Iran has tried to disavow and hide from direct involvement in it, but we know that it activates, directs, finances and transfers knowledge to all its proxies in the region, from Hezbollah, through Judea and Samaria to Yemen.”

Echoing the same sentiments, Israel's defense minister stated earlier in the day that his country was ready to handle any scenario that may develop with its foe Iran as it stayed on alert for a possible retaliatory attack. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's office made the statement after he held an "operational situation assessment" with senior military officers.

While the IRGC and its media outlets clamor for war and a swift response, commentators and some senior clerics advocate a measured approach, warning that the strike might be a trap to drag Iran into a direct conflict.

Israeli attacks have killed 18 senior IRGC officers since December, a trend that has become difficult to explain away by the Islamic Republic.

Many regional countries would like to see Iran directly involved in a war with Israel because it will inflict great damage on the country, two Iranian commentators said Sunday. “The interests of all actors in the region today lie in dragging Iran into war," said the former chairman of Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh.

President Ebrahim Raisi participated in an evening session of Iran's National Security Council shortly after the incident, yet no definitive actions were announced.

Following the extraordinary meeting, Iran dispatched a letter to the UN Security Council regarding Israel's attack, delivered by the nation's deputy representative to the United Nations. Apart from this diplomatic action, holding funerals, and engaging in extensive propaganda emphasizing martyrdom, the regime has refrained from further measures.

"Definitely, in connection with the attack on the Iranian consular building in Damascus, several meetings of the Supreme National Security Council have been held at the level of leaders" says the Raisi administration’s Minister of Sports and Youth. The recurrence of these meetings suggests an internal divide among security, military, and political leaders regarding the appropriate response to what Tehran perceives as a significant Israeli provocation. The absence of concrete action a week after the incident may also indicate underlying disagreements.

The Islamist government and its supporters faced a significant setback following the killing of Qasem Soleimani, compounded by the opposition's jubilation, praising Bibi Netanyahu as "the only friend in difficult times." Their reactions have been limited to mere promises of retaliation and statements from the Leader’s office vowing the destruction of Israel. While these actions may serve as propaganda tools, they fall short in alleviating the humiliation felt by the regime.

While IRGC circles continue to threaten a harsh retaliation, other regime circles, such as Friday Imams call for caution and “strategic patience. The publication of a claim that Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the top general killed in Damascus, was one of the planners of the October 7 Hamas attack partially reinforces the idea that revenge has already been taken and there is no need for further action.

This reluctance to respond indicates that the IRGC is further entrenching itself in its predicament. Tensions are escalating both internally and externally, with society increasingly resentful toward the authorities. The decision to forego a separate funeral for the deceased and instead incorporate their memorial into Friday prayers underscores this sentiment.

Any serious escalation and possibly a direct war with Israel, will deal a heavy blow to Iran’s beleaguered economy, a scenario probably loathed by many politicians within the clerical-military system. Already, the currency rial has fallen by 30 percent since early January, and now stands close to 650,000 to the US dollar.

Another significant hurdle to a military retaliation is the profound deficiency in Iranian intelligence operations within Syria, enabling the success of Israel's actions. Furthermore, as time elapses, the range of available but untapped options diminishes, complicating the decision-making process for a response. Since October 7, the foreign operations of the Quds Force have already exhausted some of their most readily deployable strategies, such as missile launches and assaults on commercial vessels.

Some believe that Israel has already given Iran’s rulers the opportunity for justifying inaction, by saying that the attack on the embassy in Damascus was a response to a serious attack on Eilat by Iran’s proxies. The panic-buying in Israeli supermarkets was also portrayed in Iranian government-controlled media as a victory without having fired a shot.

The opinions expressed by the author are not necessarily the views of Iran International

Among them, eight suffer from medical neglect, while eight others are detained under ambiguous circumstances, and three endure age-related health issues, according to sources speaking to Iran International.

Rahileh Rahemipour, 72, Mahvash Shahriari Sabet, 71, and Parvin Mir-Asan, 67 are among the detainees grappling with health issues alongside old age while two pregnant prisoners anticipate childbirth behind bars in the upcoming months.

Several prisoners, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, are repeatedly denied fundamental rights such as organizing protests, correspondence, and family visits. Golrokh Iraee faces communication restrictions, while Sedigheh Vasmaghi, a prominent writer and Islamic scholar, remains deprived of weekly family visits since her arrest for non-compliance with compulsory hijab.

According to Iran International's sources, eight female prisoners are held with temporary detention orders without a conclusive verdict, with some enduring incarceration exceeding a year.

Over recent years, reports have highlighted the systemic lack of medical attention for political prisoners, demonstrating authorities' disregard for their right to adequate healthcare. Despite numerous deaths among political detainees due to pressure, torture, and medical negligence, the Islamic Republic has consistently disavowed responsibility.

The structure of Iran's Judiciary sets it apart from most other nations. It integrates both prosecutors and judges, frequently operating under guidance from security and intelligence agencies. Judges lack independence, functioning as personnel within the authoritative Judiciary, directly under the control of the Supreme Leader rather than the Ministry of Justice.