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The Islamic Republic of Iran is stoking violent discontent against the Hashemite Kingdom, with a view toward gaining control over Jordan as part of an expanded “Shiite Crescent.”
A new April analysis by the US-based Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) of the pro-Hamas demonstrations on the streets of Amman sounded the alarm bells about the role of Iran’s revolutionary Islamic ambitions in Jordan.
According to the report authored by Ayelet Savyon, the Director of the MEMRI Iran studies project, “In recent days, the grand Iranian plan is emerging – the plan with which the Islamic revolutionary regime is continuing despite the killing, in Israeli air strikes, the senior command of its IRGC Qods Force in Syria and Lebanon. The upcoming stage of this plan involves bringing down the regime in Jordan, attacking Israel from the east while Israel is kept busy by Iran-backed resistance forces in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. The political aim of this plan is to thwart the Saudi-American project of normalization with Israel.”
She added that “Next in Iran’s sights is the expulsion of American forces from Iraq, and the undermining of the Saudi Kingdom and the Egyptian regime, as Iran actualizes the vision of Islamic Revolution.”
She warned that “It is not clear whether the US administration, which is currently preoccupied with the IDF’s tragic mistaken killing of the World Central Kitchen charity workers, is aware of events that could impact the continued US presence in the region as well as America’s international standing.”
On Saturday, Iran International reported that the Tehran-backed Iraqi Hezbollah battalions are prepared to arm and equip 12,000 fighters of “the Islamic resistance” in Jordan. The Iranian regime-controlled news agency ISNA stated Iranian-backed proxies will supply the 12,000 combatants in Jordan.
Dr. Walid Phares, an expert in foreign policy and the author of Iran, an Imperialist Republic, and US Policy, told Iran International “What is happening in Jordan now, while it appears as chaotic, is in fact tightly organized by Hamas, the larger Muslim Brotherhood network and the Iran regime. The protests against the Israeli embassy and spill over in Amman's streets are the result of tightly coordinated moves by the Iran and Ikhwan [the Arabic term for Muslim Brotherhood] networks, with the real target being the Hashemite Kingdom itself. “
The Gaza-based Hamas movement, the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, is a potent ally of Iran’s regime. The former Muslim Brotherhood president of Egypt, Mohammed Morsi, worked to rekindle relations with the Islamic government of Iran.
Phares, who served as a national security advisor to US Presidential nominees, added, “Tehran always considered the kingdom as an advanced US ally in the region threatening the Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, and a forward base for US and allied troops in the region. In fact, American and British troops have bases in Jordan that support Coalition activities in the whole region. Remember that the pro Iran militias have targeted a US base on the Jordanian border with Syria.”
The Mideast expert said, “Hence we know that Tehran and Damascus have been targeting the Hashemite kingdom for years and now it looks like they've unleashed their supporters against the regime.”
“The problem seems to be in Washington because of foreign policy decisions since the catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan. It was a cascade of encouragement to jihadists and pro-Iranian forces. Jordan is getting close to a possible large domestic clash caused by Hamas, Iran, and a result of an administration that put a transaction with the Iran regime above the national security interest of America and the stability of its direct allies in the region,” Phares said.
Former Israeli Ambassador Jordan, Jacob Rosen, who lived in Jordan for nine years, told Iran International that Iran has been many years “trying to push their way” into Jordan. He said “in south Jordan in Karak there is a holy grave for the Shiites.” He added “They [the Iranians] are always pushing Jordan to open the borders to bring tourism. The Jordanians resist the idea because they know what it means.”
The town of Mu'tah in the Karak Governorate was the location of a famous battle in 629 CE between Arab Muslims and Christians. A cousin of the Prophet Muhammad, Jaʿfar ibn Abī Ṭālib, was killed during the battle.
Rosen pushed back against the oft- cited Western journalistic narrative that Jordan is a fragile country. He said many other Arab governments “are soldiering on. What is fragile? There are no beggars in the streets and no hunger. The tribal networks are very strong. “
He added “The Jordanian government and the people are very strong and aware of the challenges. And if they need extra help from other countries, they get it.”
In a January 2024 article titled “Jordan and the Iranian Affiliates Drug Offensive,“ Rosen wrote with his co-author, Shaul Shay, a former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council, that “In last year Tehran begun to target the Hashemite kingdom of Jordan, one of the main Western allies in the region. Iran and its affiliated terrorist groups are leveraging the war in Gaza to undermine the stability and sovereignty of Jordan and the peace agreement between Jordan and Israel.”
According to the article, “Iran’s presence in Syria and Iraq provides it the ability to penetrate from two directions with proxy forces and Syrian…make it easy to exploit internal divisions. The smuggling of drugs and weapons from Syria to Jordan is seen as an attempt by Iran to expand its influence in the region and destabilize Jordan.”
The Israeli experts stressed that “Given the strategic importance of Jordan in the Middle East, it is imperative to closely monitor Iran’s actions and alliances and supporting Jordan’s stability through diplomatic, economic and military means.”
The alleged condition for Iran’s restraint? A ceasefire in Gaza.
That report by Jadeh Iran – unconfirmed by Iran International – is now circulating not just on social media, but has landed in the pages of Israeli news outlets.
Notably, the Iranian regime’s own propaganda media outlets are also giving it credence, including semi-official ILNA and Shahre Khabar.
But, who does this narrative serve? And, where is the original report coming from?
It’s true, the Biden administration, increasingly under pressure to find a solution to Israel’s relentless pounding of Gaza, would certainly benefit from a ceasefire – not in the least at home where several polls show a difficult road ahead for President Joe Biden campaign to hold-on to another term against Donald Trump.
On Iran’s side – desperate to get sanctions relief and already embroiled in multiple of its proxy wars in the region – the regime would do well by refraining from retaliating against Israel – and drawing less anger from the US.
In fact, that alleged report, citing only one Arabic diplomatic source, suggested that "If America succeeds in containing the situation, it will be a great success for the Biden administration and we can build on that".
Kuwaiti-based Al Jarida has since cited a source in the Iranian Foreign Ministry claiming that Washington’s latest proposal to Tehran – though a Swiss mediator – is offering direct negotiations with Tel Aviv to reach an understanding, aiming to de-escalate tensions in the region.
Some Iranians on social media meanwhile, quickly reacted to the report suggesting that the report is likely regime propaganda masking the fact that Tehran lacks the courage to retaliate against Israel.
Who is behind the media outlet “Jadeh Iran”?
Written by Ali Hashem, the Arabic piece in the web-based outlet “Jadeh Iran” paints the picture of Tehran in a dilemma between wanting to preserve its dignity after the Damascus attack – and avoiding escalating tensions in the Middle East and with that warning the US against falling into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's “trap” and seeking a ceasefire in Gaza as a condition for de-escalation.
Hashem, who describes himself as founder of Jadeh Iran also appears to work for Al Jazeera – long known for its pro-Iranian regime propaganda.
When looking on Jadeh Iran’s official Instagram page and the accounts it follows, you will find personalities like: Former Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, Seyyed Ali Khomeini, Al Jazeera reporters – and plenty of Iranian regime propaganda pages.
Meanwhile, Israel says it has withdrawn troops from southern Gaza for “tactical reasons” – with no indication that this is connected to the alleged report by Jadeh Iran.
Iran’s Retaliation After Killing Of Soleimani
When it comes to Iran’s retaliation, it is hard to predict how the regime will respond.
Over 4 years after the IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani was killed by a US drone strike in Iraq – Tehran maintains it is still seeking to avenge his death.
But, Iran did carry out what it saw as retaliation at the time, just 5 days after Soleimani’s assassination in January 2020.
It launched over 12 ballistic missiles at the al-Asad Airbase in western Iraq, as well as another airbase in Erbil. Notably, Iran reportedly did inform the Iraqi government of an imminent attack shortly beforehand.
No US service members were killed in the attacks, but about 110 did suffer traumatic brain injuries, mainly concussions – leading to much mockery by Iranian dissidents, who joked that Iran’s promised “harsh revenge” merely resulted in the “headaches” of US soldiers.
Iran however, was anticipating a counter-response from the US – but inexplicably made the decision not to close its airspace to civilian flights.
On the same day, just a few hours later, the regime’s IRGC shot down a passenger flight taking off from Tehran headed for Ukraine. Flight PS752 was hit with two surface-to-air missiles, killing all 176 people onboard – including 138 Iranians with ties to Canada.