Analysis - The inconsistency of US policy on Iran has enabled Tehran to boost its revenue and rapidly expand its nuclear program, while emboldening it to brutalize the Iranian people.
A look at the data on Iran’s oil exports, military revenue, nuclear advancements, and the number of executions in Iran show a trend. When the US posture towards Iran is softer, the regime sells more oil, has more money to spend on terrorism, expands its nuclear program, and brutalizes more Iranians.
Of course, correlation doesn’t necessarily equal causation. And there is no doubt that internal political factors within the regime in Iran, among other things, are a factor. So, let’s break down the data and some of the counter arguments.
Oil Exports
Of the data shown in the graph, Iranian oil exports is the most directly tied to US policy. From 2015 until the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran, on average, exported roughly 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd). While the deal temporarily slowed Iran’s nuclear advancements, as will be discussed later, it did so at the cost of boosting the regime’s economy and oil sales through sanctions relief.
After the United States withdrew from the JCPOA and reinstated sanctions, oil exports sunk to a low of 440,000 bpd in 2020, with an average of 790,062 bpd during the “maximum pressure” years. US led sanctions were effective in limiting the number of countries able to purchase Iranian oil. However, when the new US administration took office in 2021 with the intention of re-entering the JCPOA, they abandoned the “maximum pressure” sanctions for a posture of appeasement, which in this instance refers to the United States relieving sanctions and diplomatic pressure on the Islamic Republic in the hopes that the regime would agree to a nuclear deal. The result is evident in Iran’s oil exports, which have risen back up to nearly 1.1 million bpd in 2024 and have averaged 925,562 bpd since 2015.
Though US sanctions may still be in place, that doesn’t mean they are being enforced. For example, the US reportedly agreed to a diplomatic arrangement with Iran in 2023 that included “stepping back from seizing Iranian oil cargoes.” According to the advocacy group, United Against a Nuclear Iran, the Islamic Republic had generated approximately $80 billion in revenue from oil sales between 2021-2023, hitting a five-year high in 2023. As noted in a recent Congressional Research Service (CRS) report, observers have speculated “competing global interests, a desire not to escalate tensions with China, or the pursuit of lower petroleum prices may have also informed the Biden Administration’s Iran sanctions policy in a way that de-prioritized the enforcement of sanctions.”
Military expenditure
Notable data points include a high of approximately $13.9 billion in 2017 in military expenditures, a low of roughly $3 billion in 2020, and a rise back to nearly $6.9 billion in 2022, likely to be higher in 2023, for which data is not out yet.
The explanation for the fluctuation in Iran’s military expenditure mirrors that of Iran’s oil exports. Relieving or not enforcing sanctions that target key industries which produce revenue for the Islamic Republic gives the regime more money to spend – and Tehran will always prioritize spending on its military over the Iranian people.
Recent US policy on Iran has operated under the belief that the United States can dictate how the regime spends its money. This has been the justification for many of the sanctions waivers the US has granted to allow money to flow from countries like Iraq into the regime’s pockets, as Biden administration officials claim the money can only be used for humanitarian purposes. The flaw in this logic, including the inherent fungibility of money, has been extensively written about.
Executions
Of the data in the graph, executions in Iran are the most influenced by internal political factors within the Islamic Republic despite their rise and fall aligning with US policy stances. This includes the transition from Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to President Ebrahim Raisi in 2021, as Rouhani’s tenure included an August 2017 amendment to the Islamic Republic’s narcotics law that raised the bar for a mandatory death sentence. This was likely a factor in the decreased execution rate until Rouhani’s successor, President Raisi, took office in August of 2021.
However, this need not diminish the effect US policy has on executions in Iran and Iran’s broader human rights abuses of the Iranian people. Under President Obama, the US adopted a policy of non-interference regarding internal Iranian matters, particularly during the 2009 Iranian Green Movement protests. Obama's refusal to comment significantly on the protests signaled indifference. This approach was likely interpreted by the Islamic Republic regime as a tacit green light to deal with internal dissent as it saw fit, potentially contributing to a harsher domestic policy.
Conversely, the Trump administration took a markedly different approach. President Trump was personally a vocal critic of Iran’s human rights record and his administration imposed additional human rights sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The president of the United States regularly putting out statements letting the regime know “we're watching you” likely factored into the Tehran’s calculations on domestic policy, potentially influencing the number of executions.
Finally, the data suggests a shift back to increased executions under the Biden administration. Starting in 2021, the United States’ weaker posture towards the Islamic Republic, characterized by attempts to offer concessions to the regime in exchange for re-entering the JCPOA, emboldened the regime to increasingly suppress internal dissent without fearing international repercussions. This period correlates with an increase in executions.
Nuclear Advancements
Of course, the JCPOA temporarily restricted Iran’s nuclear program. The nuclear deal is why Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium was nonexistent in the beginning of the graph. As already noted, this temporary feat was accomplished by sacrificing pressure constraining other key aspects of the Islamic Republic’s malign activities.
Although the United States withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran started producing 20 and 60 percent uranium only after November 2020. Similarly, while Iran did begin increasing its amount of installed advanced centrifuges during the “maximum pressure” years – from 41 in 2018 to 512 in 2020 – that increase was rapidly accelerated after the 2020 election in the United States, jumping to over 2,000 in 2021 and 6,200 as of 2023.
It's fair to debate whether withdrawing from the JCPOA was the right call, but the answer is irrelevant to this discussion. There are two realities every policy maker should accept: (1) The JCPOA is dead; (2) The Islamic Republic has shown no interest in reaching a new, reasonable nuclear deal that would meaningfully push back its nuclear breakout time. This data suggests that, so long as these are the realities, the United States has a better chance of thwarting the expansion of Iran’s nuclear program through pressure than they do through appeasement.
Critics will note that Iran did begin producing lower enriched uranium, beyond the JCPOA-mandated limit, prior to 2021. 20 and 60 percent enriched uranium, as well as installed advanced centrifuges, are better measures of Iran’s nuclear advancements as they are stronger indicators of Iran’s nuclear breakout time.
Altogether
The juxtaposition of these various measurements shows that US policy on Iran influences both American national security and the welfare of the Iranian people. Therefore, both aspects should be integral to the formulation of any future US strategy regarding Iran. While applying 'maximum pressure' on the regime has yielded positive outcomes, providing 'maximum support' to the Iranian people is an essential complementary measure.
This is not about politicians nor personalities, but rather policy – you may note that the time periods in the graph are divided based on US policy on Iran, not US presidents. The United States needs a bipartisan policy on Iran, one that has a clear long-term goal and doesn’t dramatically shift every few years. Such a policy should not only aim to curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions and support for terrorism but also seek to uphold human rights and democratic values.
The data presented suggests that a US policy characterized by consistency, clarity, and firmness is more likely to restrain Iran's adversarial actions than one marked by conciliation and appeasement. As we move forward, it is crucial for policymakers to internalize the lessons learned from past engagements with Iran, crafting a coherent strategy that addresses the multifaceted nature of the challenge at hand.
Saeed Madani, a sociologist, university professor, and political activist associated with the national-religious movement, received a nine-year prison sentence in November 2022 on charges such as "forming and managing opposition groups, conspiring against national security, and propagating against the regime." He had voiced support for anti-government protests at the time. Following this, he was transferred from Evin Prison to Damavand Prison on Tuesday.
“Khamenei, the tyrannical and ruthless dictator of Iran, and his oppressive supporters are in constant fear of public awareness and the spread of public knowledge; and for this reason, they are hostile to Madani and others like him and make them the target of their hatred and revenge,” Ghadiani said in a letter released on Thursday. In recent years, the former revolutionary and supporter of the Islamic Republic has turned into a staunch critic of Khamenei’s regime.
According to the former political prisoner, the regime has intensified its repressive measures against protesters and dissenters following the massive boycott of Iran’s recent elections in March that he and others have dubbed as Khamenei’s “disastrous fiasco.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader time and again called on Iranians to vote in parliamentary and the Assembly of Experts elections held on March 1. However, according to official statistics, only around 40% of the eligible voters participated in the elections, the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic. Many opposition activists contend that the actual turnout was even lower than the one announced by the government.
Calling the regime’s rising pressure on Madani “futile,” Ghadiani stressed that the sociologist and other political prisoners “will continue their struggle against tyranny under any circumstances and will have even greater impact.”
Further in his letter, the political dissident rejected Khameni’s reign over Iran as “illegal, illegitimate and usurping,” warning that the regime’s oppressions will continue as long as he is in power. At the end of his letter, Ghadiani expressed hope that Iranians would be able to replace the corrupt regime of the Islamic Republic with a secular democratic republic based on human rights.
On Wednesday, several high profile political prisoners voiced condemnation over the recent sentencing of Madani to exile, describing the action as “a desperate attempt to quell dissent.” Among the signatories were Golrokh Iraee, Alireza Eradati, Rasoul Bodaghi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mahvash Sabet.
Ghadiani, 80, has been one of the most vocal and staunch opponents of Iran’s Supreme Leader over the past years. He belonged to a leftist, revolutionary group that was supporting the Islamic Republic and Khamenei until the disputed presidential election of 2009, when the Supreme Leader backed the questionable re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ghadiani, with many others, protested the results and was jailed to become an opposition figure.
Receiving a 10-month jail sentence in July 2023, he said he is ready to go to prison “in Ali Khamenei’s dictatorial regime.” However, he refused to attend the court session and the authorities have refrained from implementing the verdict.
Zeraati hosted Aliasghar Ramezanpour and Mehdi Parpanchi, Iran International TV editors in his popular program, “Last Word” aired on Friday.
In the beginning of the program, Zeraati expressed his gratitude to all the people who sympathized with him, further calling the Iranian people as his most important source of energy and inspiration.
“I am committed to the pact I made with the audience and the program’s path has not changed, regardless of what happened and what will be revealed in the future about the details of the incident,” he went on to say.
Zeraati was stabbed outside his residence in Wimbledon, south London, on March 29, and sustained injuries to his leg. He was discharged from hospital two days later.
According to a statement by the Metropolitan Police, the motive for the assault remains unclear. However, due to prior threats emanating from Iranian intelligence circles against Iran International journalists, the Metropolitan Police's Counter Terrorism Command is spearheading the investigation. The police said the three suspects involved in the incident fled the UK shortly after the attack, which occurred just a few months after a plot by the Iranian regime to kill two other Iran International journalists was revealed.
According to Zeraati, he and his wife have been transferred to a safe-house under police supervision since he was discharged from hospital. “I insisted on coming to the studio and resuming my program after a weak of postponement and the London Police and Iran International security team cooperated to make it happen,” he said during his program.
Many human rights organizations, trade unions, political figures and civil activists condemned the assault on Zeraati and demanded that the perpetrators be identified and punished.
On Tuesday, the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) issued a call to the Iranian regime urging an immediate halt to the targeting of journalists. Meanwhile, Freedom House, a Washington-based NGO, called on British authorities to investigate the stabbing attack on Zeraati as a possible act of transnational repression.
Speaking in the “Last Word” program, Aliasghar Ramezanpour and Mehdi Parpanchi emphasized that the network, despite all the threats of the Iranian government, will continue its professional activities to provide vitally needed information to Iranians, who live under widespread media and internet censorship.
Ramezanpour, executive editor of Iran International in London, said: “This kind of attacks and threats are not new to Iranian journalists. The Islamic Republic cannot tolerate courageous journalists who speak out.” Referring to the widespread repression of journalists inside Iran, he added that Tehran has been trying to apply the same policy to Iranian journalists abroad.
The attack on Zeraati was not the first threat against Iran International, but just as previous threats and pressures had no effect on the work of the network, there will be no change in operations now, Ramezanpour pointed out, stressing that governments in the free world are legally obligated to defend freedom of speech.
Iran International television network, based in London and Washington DC, broadcasts news and views 24/7 on satellite to audiences in Iran. In 2022, Iran International temporarily relocated its television broadcast from London to Washington, DC, after police found information about direct threats to two other journalists at the network.
An Austrian national named Mohammad-Hussein Dovtaev on February 13, 2023. He was detained while filming outside the network’s premises. Iran International resumed broadcasting from its new London headquarters on September 25, 2023.
Participating in “Last Word,” Parpanchi, executive news editor at the Washington DC office, condemned the attack on Zeraati as “an attack on free media and freedom of expression” and called on journalists across the globe to react, stand up for journalism and defend freedom of speech.
“Unfortunately, it must be said that the Islamic Republic’s threats will definitely continue its policies. The use of knives, machetes and swords is part of the essence and foundation of the Islamic Republic which has been founded upon bloodshed and has gotten used to it,” Parpanchi pointed out.
He emphasized that Iran International will employ every tool and means available in free countries to hold accountable those responsible for the attacks on its journalists.
In a statement issued on Wednesday, British rights organization ARTICLE 19 voiced extreme concern for the safety of journalists against the threats of the Iranian government.
“The authorities of the Islamic Republic have shown, time and again, that they have no hesitation in using every tool in their armory of repression – from the brutal and unlawful killing of protesters, arbitrary detention of journalists and human rights defenders, to exterritorial threats and operations against dissidents abroad – to maintain their tight grip on power and conceal the atrocities they commit from the eyes of the world,” warned Saloua Ghazouani, Director of ARTICLE 19 Middle East and North Africa Programme.