Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen said on Thursday that just 37 people were killed and 30 wounded in 424 US and British airstrikes on their military sites involved in attacking ships in the Red Sea.
The Houthis, who control Yemen's capital and most populous areas, have attacked international shipping in the Red Sea since November in solidarity with the Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas militants, drawing US and British retaliatory strikes since February. The attacks began after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged Muslims to blockade Israel.
Abdul Malik Al-Houthi, the leader of the pro-Iran rebels, in a televised speech said 90 ships had been targeted in the Red Sea and drone attacks had increased and expanded to additional regions.
He said 34 attacks had been launched in a month, using 125 ballistic missiles and drones.
The Houthi attacks have disrupted global shipping, forcing firms to take longer and more expensive journeys around the southern tip of Africa.
The United States and Britain carried out the strikes against Houthi targets in response to the attacks on shipping.
Iran has mobilized it armed proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen against Israel since the October 7 Hamas assault on Israel that killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians. Israel invaded Gaza to eradicate Hamas and in six months of fighting between twenty and thirty thousand Gazans have died, with thousands of militants among them.
Late Thursday, Axios reported that Israel has gathered intelligence that shows Iran could attack Israel from its soil using long-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles or drones”. Axios also cited an Israeli source about a phone call between Israeli and American defense ministers.
In his cabinet meeting Thursday, Netanyahu warned Iran that Israel would “harm” anyone who wants to harm it. "For years, Iran has been acting against us both directly and via its proxies,” he said, “Israel is acting against Iran and its proxies, defensively and offensively."
The term ‘Quds Day’ was first coined in Iran immediately after the 1979 Revolution. It gained significance after Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of that revolution –and the founder of Iran’s Islamic Republic– called on Muslims everywhere to mark the day by pro-Palestinian rallies and protests against Israel.
Quds Day and the fasting month of Ramadan has often seen a heightened tension in Israel and the Palestinian Occupied Territories, but this year the stakes are much higher because of October 7th and the ensuing Israeli onslaught on Gaza, which has drawn the world’s attention to the decades-long tragedy like never before.
“This year’s Quds Day will be a global uproar against the usurping Zionist regime,” Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei said this week. “In previous years, Quds Day [rallies] were held only in Islamic countries. But this year, it’s highly likely that Quds Day [rallies] are organized in non-Islamic countries as well, with glory, God willing.”
Israeli officials had raised concerns about potential attacks by Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah before Ramadan began. Defense minister Yoav Gallant had predicted attempts to turn the holy Muslim month into the “second phase” of what happened on October 7th and "inflame the region."
Four days to the end of Ramadan, the “second phase” Gallant warned about seems to have not materialized. But the fear of a Middle East in “flames” is still very much alive, even more so since April 1 when Israel killed seven members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, including two high-ranking commanders, in an unprecedented airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus.
Most Iranian officials immediately threatened to retaliate. There were also some inside Iran who called for a “measured response” to avoid escalation. Khamenei spoke of “punishment” for Israel. “We will make them regret this crime and other ones like it,” he said one day after the airstrike on Iran’s consulate.
Shortly after, reports began circulating in Israeli media about the possibility of retaliatory attack by Iran or its proxies, raising fears among the public and putting the Israeli army on high alert.
US officials said they had not picked up intelligence suggesting Iran-backed groups were looking to target US troops following Monday's attack.
Nonetheless some experts and insiders –such as Amos Yadlin, a former Israeli intelligence chief– warned that Iran might choose Quds Day (Friday 5 April) to respond to the strike on its consulate in Syria, either directly or through a proxy.
Until now, Iran has somehow avoided direct confrontations with Israel and the US. But on Thursday, Reuters quoted a US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, that many fear “Iran would make good on its threats to retaliate, raising the risk of volatile, regional escalation.”
But many experts believe that Tehran is not as interested, as it shows it is, in a full-blown war with Israel –and potentially the US– not least because a costly war could further destabilize the country and mark the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic.
Iran International has been flooded with messages from viewers critical of the Iranian government. These messages highlight a perceived discrepancy between the government's harsh treatment of its own citizens and its apparent inefficacy in dealing with external threats.
In a late-night attack on Wednesday, the Sunni militant group Jaish ul-Adl targeted at least five military posts and Revolutionary Guard bases in the cities of Chabahar and Rask. Clashes continued throughout the night, with the government announcing the neutralization of all attackers by Friday noon. At least 28 individuals were killed in the clashes, including 18 militants and 10 Iranian military personnel. Full casualty figures for the injured are unavailable, but reports indicate at least 15 Guards were wounded from a single unit. Jaish ul-Adl has a well-documented history of targeting Iranian forces, particularly the Revolutionary Guards, in areas bordering Pakistan. Designated a foreign terrorist organization by the US in 2010, the group has also been implicated in civilian casualties from past bombings.
The attack comes just a few days after an Israeli airstrike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed seven Revolutionary Guards, including a high-ranking general. Since the outbreak of the Gaza War in October, suspected Israeli strikes have eliminated at least 18 IRGC commanders and advisors. In response, Iran has issued repeated threats of "harsh revenge," with pronouncements from regime officials, including the Supreme Leader himself.
A recurring theme in the messages sent to Iran International was that the attacks in Sistan-Baluchestan and Syria prove that the Islamic Republic is unable to respond to or prevent the attacks abroad and at home. “The Islamic Republic's real strength is in suppressing its own people," one of person said. “The government is able to quickly identify and punish any Iranian who expresses the slightest opposition to the regime.”
In response to the attacks in Syria and Sistan-Baluchistan Province, the Islamic Republic has resorted to threatening Israel with revenge. However, according to an audio file, this is merely a display of strength, as the Islamic Republic lacks the capability to defeat Israel.
Another Iranian highlighted that the Tehran's claims of its military power are a "sham" as it has not been able to defeat Jaish ul-Adl, a small guerrilla group that repeatedly carry out attacks in Iran. “They can't even handle Jaish ul-Adl, a guerrilla group, and yet they claim they can defeat Israel with all its equipment and intelligence superiority."
In January, IRGC targeted what it claimed were hideouts of the Sunni militants in Pakistan's Baluchistan with missiles. Islamabad retaliated with heavy fire a day later, marking the first attack by a foreign country inside Iranian soil since the end of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988). Iranians slammed the government for not responding to Pakistan’s airstrikes.
Frequent criticism of the Islamic Republic is that it maintains power solely through the repression of its own citizens. Its strength is only in "killing its own people," said an Iranian in an audio file sent to Iran International.
The Islamic Republic's intelligence capabilities are only good for "identifying opponents of compulsory hijab, harassing and imprisoning them, killing young protesters and silencing trade union activists."
All in all, these comments suggest a widespread skepticism about the Islamic Republic's claims about its military and intelligence capabilities. Instead, Iranians perceive the regime's true strength to lie in its ability to suppress dissent.