Ali Khamenei's Challenging Year

Over the past weeks, US intelligence agencies had obtained alarming information about the rising threats of the Afghanistan-based cell of the Islamic State in Russia. The terrorist group is commonly known as ISIS-Khorasan or ISIS-K.

On March 7, the US embassy in Russia issued a security alert, saying it “is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.”

However, Putin's decision to disregard the warning is similar to what took place in Iran recently. More than one week before a double bombing in the Iranian city of Kerman which killed more than 90 people on January 3, the US provided the Iranian government with a private warning about terrorist threats. The warning was ignored by Tehran.

Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, confirmed that the information was shared with Russian officials in accordance with Washington’s “duty to warn” policy.

However, Putin dismissed the warnings as provocative. “All this resembles outright blackmail and the intention to intimidate and destabilize our society,” the Russian president was quoted as saying on March 19.

At least four armed assailants stormed the Crocus City Hall, a popular concert hall, on Moscow’s western edge. The attack claimed the lives of at least 60 people and left 145 injured.

ISIS claimed responsibility for the deadly assault. Following the incident, Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukraine’s presidential office, stressed that Kyiv “has absolutely nothing to do” with the massacre.

Citing Kremlin officials, Interfax news agency reported Saturday that 11 people have been arrested in connection with the attack, including four who were directly involved in it.

The ballistic missile attack came as retaliation days after the United States killed IRGC's Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad. Zarif also claims that he and then-President Hassan Rouhani heard about the missile attack after the Americans were informed through Iraqi officials.

In his new book, Mohammad Javad Zarif explains the buildup to the attack on Ain al-Asad Base in January 8, 2020, codenamed Operation Martyr Soleimani. Ten days after the publication of the book, social media circulated a photo of one of the pages of the memoir that detailed the moment when Zarif was informed of the attack.

“The last decision I heard [after Soleimani's killing] was that there is no rush for a response, and the most efficient method was thought to be the one pursued by Hezbollah in Lebanon, creating condition to exhaust the enemy,” Zarif says in the book, a memoir of the eight years (2013-2021) he served as foreign minister.

He added that he received the message about the missile attack from Abbas Araghchi, another senior Iranian diplomat, hours after Iran had fired over a dozen ballistic missiles at the base. This was the biggest ballistic attack against the US forces in recent history.

“Apparently, Americans were informed of the attack before Iran’s President and Foreign Minister by the Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi,” who had informed them of the operation in the evening, hours before the attack. Reuters reported at the time that Iraq's prime minister had received an oral message from Iran that the retaliatory attack would begin and that it would target locations where American forces were deployed.

At 11 pm on January 7, US Lt. Col. Antoinette Chase, responsible for emergency response at Ain al-Asad Base, gave the order for American troops to go on lockdown and take cover in bunkers. The first missiles landed sometime after 1:35 a.m. on January 8 and the barrage continued for nearly two hours. “Worst case scenario — we were told was it’s probably going to be a missile attack. So we were informed of that,” she told reporters touring the base later.

Zarif commends the “appropriate and correct” decision to give the heads-up to the US before the attack but questions why President Hassan Rouhani and himself were not aware of the attack, laying bare a point of contention in the Islamic Republic’s politics: The Revolutionary Guards do not coordinate their moves with the government.

Iran's coordination with the US regarding the attack suggests that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his IRGC aimed to project strength but were wary of the potential escalation resulting from any American casualties. Nevertheless, Iran was on alert for a possible US retaliatory strike and hours later mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian airliner thinking it was an American aircraft, killing 176 innocent people.

Zarif revealed that he and his team were preparing messages to the security council and other parties to explain the Ain al-Asad attack before he learned of the downing of the Ukrainian plane soon after its takeoff from Tehran.

It is not the first time Zarif talked about Iran’s the circumstances surrounding the killing of Soleimani and Tehran’s coordination for the surprise revenge attack and other developments of that week in January 2020. In a voice recording leaked in March 2021, Zarif could be heard saying that officials knew about the circumstances of the downing soon after it happened, but they had concealed the information from him, and continued to mislead the world about why the airliner had crashed.

Former US president Donald Trump, who ordered the killing of Soleimani, said on several occasions that Iranians informed him that they would hit a military base with ballistic missiles.

On February 5, former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani dismissed claims by Trump that he had received an Iranian message before the attack. However, he chose his words very carefully, saying there were no contacts between the Iranians and Americans before the attack on Ain al-Asad. He was right. The IRGC informed the Iraqi premier, who later relayed the message.

The Iranian attack was the most direct Iranian assault on America since the 1979 seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran. Iran and the United States went to the brink of war three times during the Presidency of Donald Trump, Iran’s former president Rouhani said in January. 

The confrontation unfolded during a heated exchange with Iran International's Arash Alaie, where Medea Benjamin deflected scrutiny by asserting, "We're not on the side of any government anywhere. We support people."

Codepink has come under fire for its alleged connections to the Iranian regime, primarily from critics who perceive the government in Tehran as oppressive and authoritarian. Detractors argue that by maintaining affiliations with or expressing solidarity towards the Iranian leadership, Codepink legitimizes a regime accused of egregious human rights violations, crackdowns on dissent, and alleged support for terrorist entities.

The movement's critics further contend that Codepink's stance may inadvertently whitewash the Iranian government's track record of arbitrary arrests, torture, and executions targeting political dissidents, journalists, and minority groups. Some also accuse Codepink of disproportionately scrutinizing Western governments, particularly the United States, while downplaying or disregarding the actions of non-Western regimes such as Iran.

There are concerns among critics that the Iranian regime could exploit Codepink's support as a propaganda tool, utilizing it to bolster its international image and diminish its isolation on the global stage.

He called on the government to offer citizens, particularly women opportunities for advancement. Abdolhamid proclaimed that such empowerment could lead to the transformation of Iran into a promised land, emphasizing the immense potential harbored within the nation.

Highlighting the prevalent corruption plaguing the country, Abdolhamid issued a warning against the misappropriation of national assets, labeling such actions “perilous” and naming them as “the root cause of Iran's societal woes, which deprive the people of their rightful share.”

While Abdolhamid refrained from specifying the catalyst behind his address, it appears linked to recent revelations of corruption by Kazem Seddighi, the Friday Prayer leader of Tehran appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Sedighi stands accused of illicitly acquiring a valuable piece of land in northern Tehran, valued at millions of dollars.

The sermon follows Abdolhamid's earlier critique on March 1 regarding the government's failure to implement adequate flood management measures, which he reiterated in light of floods in his province. However, Abdolhamid's efforts to visit the flood-affected areas were thwarted by security forces, underscoring ongoing tensions between dissenting voices and authorities.

The torrential rains in late February in southern Sistan and Baluchestan triggered extensive flooding, particularly in the Dashtyari region, leading to submerged residential areas and the closure of numerous roads. Hundreds of households have incurred damage due to the recent floods in the province.

Hashemi Rafsanjani is a former Iranian MP turned activist – who was most recently arrested amid the Women, Life, Freedom protests in 2022, after she expressed support for the protests.

Her father, former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, oversaw a long string of terrorist plots during his eight years in office. For almost 30 years he was one of the top decision makers in the Islamic Republic, even playing the key role in installing Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader. He was accused as one of the Iranian leaders responsible for planning a deadly attack on a Jewish community center in Argentina in 1994.

Despite Hashemi Rafsanjani's recent public criticism of the Islamic Republic, Iranian social media users strongly denounced the US State Department's post featuring her – calling her a “reformist” and “regime insider”. Most Iranian dissidents view Iran's Reformists as part of the Islamic Republic and a political group that wants to save the regime.

Tagging the US Envoy for Iran, Abram Paley, social media users from different political backgrounds questioned why the US government would promote her as “the defender of women’s rights across Iran”.

Many users expressed outrage, viewing the post as a direct insult to those battling for freedom in Iran, especially Iranian women.

The State Department's Instagram page, USABehFarsi ("USA in Farsi"), appears to be directed towards Iranians in Iran, as it predominantly posts in Persian.

On Instagram, where the majority of Iranians using social media inside Iran are active, the comments were overwhelmingly negative.

Within just 4 hours of the post being uploaded, nearly 1,500 comments poured in.

Numerous users, labeling Hashemi Rafsanjani as a "fundamentalist reformist," expressed their frustration, asserting that Iranians are not merely seeking reform but rather a complete regime change.

Notably, the State Department restricted comments on its page.

This recent controversy follows days after another contentious moment for the Biden administration, stemming from the President’s New Year message to Iranians, commemorating the ancient spring celebration of Norouz.

President Biden's mention of the Gaza conflict in his statement raised eyebrows and fueled anger, since neither Palestinians nor Arabs celebrate Nouruz. Adding to the outrage, is the fact that Norouz has been celebrated in Iran for over 2,500 years – and is not an Islamic occasion.

Arash Aalaei from Iran International further highlighted that, besides President Biden, the only other world leader to include mention of Palestinians in Norouz greetings to Iranians was Ayatollah Khamenei and the Iranian regime.