Iran's Nefarious Agenda Prevails Despite Warnings Of Trump's Return
Amidst the looming prospect of Donald Trump's return to the White House, a small cohort of former Iranian officials is floating a recalibration of relations with the West.
Amidst the looming prospect of Donald Trump's return to the White House, a small cohort of former Iranian officials is floating a recalibration of relations with the West.
But, within the limited timeframe of the Biden administration's tenure, Iran finds itself at a critical juncture.
In blatant disregard of Western admonitions, Tehran persists in advancing its nuclear agenda alongside intensifying its proxy conflicts across the Middle East – its pursuits extending to brazen actions such as the killings of US servicemen in Syria.
And all the while, as it employs its own version of a maximum pressure campaign against the West, Tehran remains steadfast in its insistence on sanctions relief.
In the face of Iran's destabilizing actions and ahead of the presidential election, President Biden appears inclined towards appeasement.
Amid the war in Gaza, the US reissued a $10 billion Iran sanctions waiver – with critics arguing loudly that it frees up billions in sanctions relief to Tehran as its proxies continue to destabilize the Middle East.
As the idea of Trump's potential return to the White House casts a long shadow over Iran's diplomatic calculations – warnings from former Iranian officials are seemingly falling on deaf ears.
This week, former Iranian ambassador to the UK, Jalal Sadatian, advocated for improved cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to garner European support – without compromising Iranian sovereignty.
While Iran has failed to cooperate with the IAEA on multiple issues since 2021 – recent points of friction between Tehran and the agency have piled up.
Iran has deactivated surveillance devices, barred senior inspectors and refused to disclose new nuclear facilities.
“Before Trump comes, we could establish a better relationship with the [IAEA] and have more reasonable cooperation. I'm not saying we should fully submit to the agency, but we can improve our relationship in a way that doesn't put Europeans against us," Sadatian said in an interview with the regime’s semi-officials news agency ILNA.
But, this kind of cautionary take from one of their own, has yet to factor into the regime’s calculations – particularly without pressure from the West.
Just this month, Iran again avoided a censure during the meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors. While there were the usual denouncements by the US, France, Germany, and the UK, in essence, Western leaders kicked the can down the road – suggesting a push for action at the June meeting if Iran does not cooperate with the agency.
Iran, meanwhile, has shown no interest in doing so, even as the presidential elections are mere months away.
The window for Iran is indeed narrowing quickly – and in that vein, Sadatian advocated prioritizing a constructive relationship with the IAEA before entertaining negotiations to resurrect the defunct JCPOA.
Concurrently in Iran, and consistent with the desperate desire to lift sanctions, a known narrative persists: the nation's hardships are solely attributed to the sanctions imposed following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA.
It's perhaps unsurprising then, that former Iranian politician and intelligence officer Ali Rabiei joins the ranks of those who conveniently place blame for Iran's economic woes squarely on sanctions.
Be that as it may, he suggests diplomatic efforts to lift sanctions – with a successful resolution to the JCPOA to alleviate some of the hardships faced by the country.
"Undoubtedly, a portion of today's chronic despair and erratic migrations stem from the disappointment of the JCPOA's unfulfillment and the repercussions arising from it," Rabiei wrote in the so-called reformist Etemad.
But, in his assessment, he fails to offer specific details on the necessary components of renegotiation or diplomatic efforts.
Late last year, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former head of parliament's foreign policy committee, attributed the failure to de-escalate tensions with the US and revive the JCPOA to the government of former President Hassan Rouhani.
This perspective perpetuates the false notion that a President wields decisive authority over significant foreign policy matters, leading some to believe that Iran merely requires a change in presidential leadership – obscuring the fundamental truth that the ultimate authority rests with the Supreme Leader.
In an interview with so-called reformist news site Entekhab, Falahatpisheh argues that negotiating with the Biden administration prior to the US elections is only justified if Iran establishes a framework to prevent the return of maximum pressure policies.
“The only directive that can validate negotiations in the current circumstances is precisely this issue. If Trump returns to power, he would bring maximum pressure, and if Biden manages to resolve the energy issue, he would exert even greater pressure on Iran. Biden greatly needs these negotiations, and Tehran should not raise minor demands in these discussions," he said.
But, a far cry from the chummy negotiations that led to the JCPOA in 2015 – Iran and the US held secret, indirect negotiations in January, with Omani officials acting as the messenger boy between the two.
It’s evident that as Iran braces itself for the possibility of a Trump return to the White House, it is grappling with a lack of clear direction in achieving its objectives.
Despite heavy international sanctions and an immense economic reliance on China, Iran persists in its destabilizing actions across the region.
The notion that Iran might heed the counsel of certain former officials disregards the inherent nature of the clerical regime.
Logic takes a backseat, as the regime's primary objectives are inherently misaligned with the West’s interests – and there is no reason to think that will change.
The decision was announced Tuesday after a marathon meeting that started a day earlier, setting the minimum monthly wage for workers at 111 million rials -- or about $185 at today’s exchange rate. The Labor Council includes government, business and labor representatives.
Given the devaluation of the national currency, the minimum wage for the upcoming Iranian year effectively stagnates, resulting in minimal purchasing power for wage earners and a decline in the living standards for millions of workers. The purchasing power of Iranians is undermined by the rising value of the US dollar in Tehran, which stands at about 610,000 rials, with prospects of further depreciation looming in the upcoming year.
According to Deputy Labor Minister Ali-Hossein Ra'yatifard, Iran has over 15 million industrial and service sector workers, about 17 percent of the country’s population.
Additionally, the increase is significantly lower than the inflation rate in Iran, which the government-controlled central bank says is 43%. The inflation rate for food items is much higher, with the figure hitting about 80 to 100%. Inflation began to soar to 40% in 2019 after the United States imposed economic sanctions on Iran. The cumulative effect of five years of high inflation has impoverished tens of millions of Iranian wage earners. Over the past six years, the rial has fallen 15-fold.
Labor representatives walked out of the Supreme Labor Council session and refrained from signing the final resolution of the council. They had called for a 50% increase in the minimum wage, arguing that the current level is not enough to cover basic living expenses. They also criticized the government for failing to address other issues affecting workers, such as the lack of job security, low levels of unionization, and the high rate of accidents in the workplace due to a lack of safety regulations.
Within Iran's state-controlled economy, the government sets wages for public sector workers, including thousands of companies and factories, which also determines salaries of ordinary workers in the private sector. According to the law, representatives of the government, official labor unions and employers every year negotiate to set the minimum wage. However, the government increasingly ignores the unions and pushes through unrealistically low wages amid a nearly 50-percent annual inflation.
Ahmadreza Mo’ini, a labor representative at the Supreme Labor Council, stated that both the government and employers disregarded the demands of workers during negotiations, prompting labor representatives to leave the session in protest.
Ali Khodayi, a labor activist and dismissed member of the Supreme Labor Council, supported the decision of labor representatives to leave the council session, stating that according to the Labor Law, workers' wages should increase in proportion to the inflation rate.
The workers proposed a minimal rate of 195 million rials ($325) but the government keeps rejecting it, Nader Moradi, workers and retirees’ union activist, said earlier in the week, further adding, “If we take into account such items as housing and education, the minimum livelihood basket for working families stands at 300 million rials (around $500).”
The government, however, defended the increase, saying that it was the highest in the past three years, disregarding the soaring inflation in recent years and the freefall in the rial’s value. The government says that it has taken into account the economic situation of the country and the need to protect jobs, arguing that higher wages make employers lay off workers or employ them without contracts.
Last week, Mohammad Reza Tajik, the head of the Workers' Assembly of Tehran Province, warned that “wages of workers are always one year behind inflation,” leaving millions struggling to make ends meet. He added that even a 100% wage hike would fail to bridge the gap between wages and living expenses for the working class.
Persistent inflation and a sluggish economy have propelled millions of Iranians into the category of "working poor," with reports indicating that wages cover a mere 60 percent of monthly household expenses. A myriad of factors contribute to the continuation of low wages in Iran, including economic mismanagement, corruption, and international sanctions.
All in all, the government’s decision for a smaller raise in salaries is likely to further anger workers, who have already been staging protests in recent years over low wages and poor working conditions. Labor activist Hassan Sadeghi said Tuesday that "We should brace ourselves for a 67% inflation rate next year and further depreciation of the national currency as well as an imminent increase in prices of gasoline and other energy carriers,” warning of further protests in the upcoming year.