Head of Tehran's City Council Credits Iran For Regional Turmoil

As Iran's supreme leader, 84-year-old Ali Khamenei ages, the newly elected Assembly of Experts will likely confront the task of selecting his successor.

Khamenei’s cautionary words on Thursday against potential conflicts among newly elected and re-elected members highlight the importance of preserving the assembly's primary responsibilities. He emphasized the need for the elected members to avoid internal strife, ensuring the assembly can effectively carry out its duties.

The orchestrated electoral process by the Guardian Council and the Interior Ministry aimed to select candidates aligned with the security apparatus and the IRGC, in accordance with Khamenei's preferences. This strategic maneuvering ensured the desired outcome without explicit directives from Khamenei himself.

The words of Khamenei, who told the Assembly’s three-member candidate review board to exclude his son Mojtaba, were interpreted in the media as Khamenei's decision not to put Mojtaba in his seat, but Khamenei's remarks were also interpreted as a directive to pave the way for his unimpeded ascension, bypassing vetting procedures. When after the 2005 elections, top politician Mehdi Karroubi criticized Mojtaba for his alleged interference as “a master’s son,” Khamenei responded that Mojtaba “is a master himself, not a master’s son."

Key individuals with a lot of insider information and intelligence data were disqualified from running in the assembly election. Former President Hassan Rouhani, and three former intelligence ministers, Ali Fallahian, Haider Moslehi, and Mahmoud Alavi, were disqualified. These individuals with a throve of potentially sensitive and damaging information on members of the assembly could influence a vote on succession. The Guardian Council also disqualified 366 out of 510 clerical candidates from a diverse spectrum and left only 144 candidates for 88 seats, which was not even twice the number of seats. In the previous round, 635 people were disqualified out of 801 candidates.

The manipulation of voting dynamics in various provinces favored certain candidates, indicating a strategic effort to influence the outcome in favor of preferred individuals. This calculated approach ensured that candidates aligned with Khamenei's vision secured significant support.

The election results across different provinces signify a noticeable shift towards younger clerics loyal to Khamenei, marking a departure from the previous assembly's composition. This generational change reflects Khamenei's strategic efforts to shape the assembly according to his long-term objectives. For example, long-standing clerics such as Hashem Hashemzadeh Harisi (East Azarbaijan province) and Kazem Nour Mofidi (Golestan province), members of the Fifth Expert Assembly who were close to Rafsanjani, did not run for office to avoid the humiliation of being disqualified. 

Some approved candidates whose loyalty was not to the House of Khamenei, such as Javad Mojtahed Shabestri from West Azarbaijan Province, were eliminated in the voting stage. This was achieved because of very low turnout; the votes of the sixth Experts Assembly members are about a third of those in the previous term.

The absence of influential figures aligned with reformist factions, or more independent, suggests minimal opposition within the assembly to Mojtaba's candidacy. This lack of dissenting voices further strengthens Mojtaba's position as the favored candidate to succeed Khamenei.

Candidates associated with existing Shia authorities in Qom or Grand Ayatollah Sistani's disciples were sidelined, diminishing the possibility of alternative factions challenging Mojtaba's candidacy. This strategic maneuvering ensures that Mojtaba's candidacy remains unchallenged within the assembly.

Hassan Khomeini's disqualification in the previous term also reflected efforts to preempt any attempts by reformists to challenge Mojtaba's candidacy. This calculated move underscores the regime's determination to consolidate power and maintain control over the succession process.

According to reports, the group has more than 60 million followers collectively on different platforms, particularly TikTok. 

Moslem Shojaei, the head of the marketing office in Iran’s Tourism Ministry, said the group has been invited as part of the “Salam Iran” project aimed at boosting tourism in the country.

They are to visit different parts of Iran in four tours during the stay.

On Tuesday, a short video was released showing 11 of the influencers visiting the shrine of Imam Reza, the eighth Imam of Shiites, in the religious city of Mashhad in northeastern Iran.

Meanwhile, Ezzatollah Zarghami, Iran’s Minister of Tourism and a former IRGC officer, hailed the visiting Chinese influencers as “active youths” who can effectively encourage their fellow compatriots to travel to Iran, currently blighted by human rights abuses and being labelled the world's number one state sponsor of terror, by the US. 

Over the past years, especially after the nationwide uprising in Iran triggered by the death in morality-police custody of Mahsa Amini in 2022, Tehran has tried to employ foreign influencers and known figures in a desperate attempt to rebuild its tarnished international reputation and even promote its ideological causes.

In February, Whitney Wright, an American adult film actress, travelled to Iran, sharing an image of herself at Tehran's Golestan Palace, fully covered with Iran's mandatory hijab.

Wright's visit to Iran ignited a firestorm on Iranian social media. Some users alleged that Iranian authorities either invited or facilitated her visit due to her outspoken anti-Israeli and pro-Palestinian stances.

“They have sidelined people and make excuses … It is even funnier when they refer to the elections as a ‘great victory,’” said Ahmadinejad in a video message released on Wednesday.

“When people are sidelined, it is a failure and there is no victory … [In this context] winning doesn’t mean anything,” stated Ahmadinejad who was barred twice from running in presidential elections in 2017 and 2021.

According to IRGC-affiliated Fars news website, only 40% of the eligible voters turned out in Iran’s parliamentary and the Assembly of Experts elections on March 1, the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic. The event was boycotted by the large sections of the public.

Despite the unprecedentedly low turnout, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei hailed the elections as "great and epic" on Tuesday, saying, “The Iranian nation did a jihad and fulfilled their social and civil duties.”

While the Iranian regime asserts that citizens are free to decide whether to participate in elections and that abstaining will not incur penalties, numerous reports suggest that the Islamic Republic closely monitors individuals’ voting records.

This process is particularly implemented for citizens holding a governmental position, such as teachers, university professors, and civil servants. Those who have to vote to keep their jobs express their discontent through invalid votes.

Qaani added that “physical infrastructure would be rebuilt", yet "Israel's credibility and honor would remain irreparable.”

"The resistance front is a cohesive entity with significant capabilities, although it has not yet utilized all of its capabilities," he added as the war which broke out in October after the terror group invaded Israel, continues without an end in sight. Negotiations this week seem to have failed with Hamas refusing to release names of surviving hostages taken on October 7 and Israel refusing to cease its offensive until Hamas disarms.

Iran has long provided financial support to various Palestinian groups, including Hamas. Despite varying estimates, a 2020 US State Department report indicated Iran's annual provision of approximately $100 million to Palestinian militant groups, including Hamas.

However, Iran's involvement in the Gaza conflict poses economic challenges, exacerbating existing issues such as currency devaluation, reduced government revenues, and high inflation. Despite Iranian officials' assurances to avoid broader regional conflict, proxy armed groups' involvement risks escalating tensions with Israel and the United States, potentially impacting global oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz as the Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis continues its blockade on the key maritime route.

US facilities in Iraq and Syria have also been targeted since October, the US under fire for supporting Israel's right to defend itself.

By supporting organizations like Hamas, Iran diverts attention from its own economic challenges. The conflict's broader implications could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and North Africa, affecting various sectors including travel, commerce, investment, and energy.

However, as a seasoned veteran of the IRGC and a relative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Ghalibaf still enjoys significant political support. The editor of the IRGC-affiliated Javan newspaper in Tehran staunchly defended him against his hardline political rivals, who clearly covet his position as leader of parliament (Majles).

Gholamreza Sadeghian in an article featured in the most prominent place on the daily's Wednesday's edition particularly addressed Hamid Rasaei, a firebrand headliner, and said he and his likeminded newly elected lawmakers are neither devoted Muslims, nor have any particular expertise that would make them fit for membership in the Majles (parliament).

Since his election, Rasaei has labeled veteran politicians such as Ghalibaf and his predecessor Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel as "hypocrites" and has called for an end to Ghalibaf's leadership in the Majles.

Javan newspaper accused Rasaei of insulting the Majles, which Khamenei has referred to as "a revolutionary parliament." Additionally, Javan charged Rasaei with insulting former IRGC Qods Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, adding that Rasaei, who was previously barred from running for the Majles in 2021, lacks an understanding of Khamenei's expectations for the Majles and its lawmakers.

The daily suggested that the people have the power to remove such lawmakers from the parliament. The severity of the accusations, particularly those regarding insulting Qasem Soleimani, may indicate that the next Majles is likely to reject Rasaei's credentials.

Iran International TV called Javan's article a strong defense of Ghalibaf's leadership role in the next Majles. Iran analyst Morteza Kazemian told Iran International that this is not a conflict between political parties and their members. This is a fight between gangs that benefit from financial resources thanks to their positions in the government and Majles.

Another Iran analyst, Mehdi Mahdavi Azad also called the new MPs, the members of a cult that represent around 5 percent of Iranian voters. He said the ongoing conflict between various groups of hardliners at the parliament started as older hardliners let the genie out of the bottle and now, they find it hard to control it.

Javan also remarked that Rasaei and certain other newly elected hardliners seem to harbor the illusion that they could ascend to leadership positions within the parliament. The publication specifically accused Rasaei of coveting Ghalibaf's role and of perceiving himself as more than just a newly elected lawmaker awaiting credential approval. Furthermore, Javan criticized Rasaei's remarks about other politicians as "impolite" and potentially damaging.

Additionally, Javan recalled Rasaei's accusation against Ghalibaf, alleging that he had attained political power due to his familial ties. This reference to Ghalibaf and Haddad Adel's relationship with Khamenei was untimely and inappropriate.

During the past days verbal attacks prompted Ghalibaf to consider resigning his post as a member of the parliament. Earlier, another hardliner cleric, Alireza Panahian, had called on Ghalibaf to resign after an scandal about Ghalibaf’s son attempting to emigrate to Canada was disclosed by Iran International and on social media.

In an interview with Didban Iran website, prominent lawmaker Sharyar Heidari said on Wednesday that a few days after the latest Majles election, Ghalibaf and his political rivals started lobbying as serious contenders for the post of Majles Speaker.

Heidari said that although there seems to be a consensus about Ghalibaf's continued role as Speaker, the moves by newly elected lawmakers are likely to cause turmoil during the first weeks of the next parliament.

Over the past few days, there has been much speculation regarding Ghalibaf's political future. Centrist daily "Ham Mihan" summarized these speculations into three groups. According to "Ham Mihan," Ghalibaf may choose to continue relying on his old friends to advance his longstanding policies. However, in this scenario, he may struggle to resist the pressures from the new generation of hardline politicians.

Alternatively, his second option could involve joining forces with members of the ultraconservative Paydari Party, along with his friends and allies, to shield himself against attacks from emerging hardliners. His third option might be to form an alliance with any moderates present in the Majles, if they exist, to counter the pressures from the hardliners. Nevertheless, without support from the IRGC and Khamenei, the intensity of the hardliners' pressure could easily sideline Ghalibaf.