Iran Election Poses Threats to Security Due To Unfairness: Study
A study published in the Iranian government-owned National Security Monitor suggests that the upcoming elections present both threats and potential benefits for the regime's survival.
A study published in the Iranian government-owned National Security Monitor suggests that the upcoming elections present both threats and potential benefits for the regime's survival.
Authored by Farzad Poursaeed and originally titled "Elections and National Security in the Islamic Republic," the study was re-published by the Iranian official news agency (IRNA) under the headline: "National security and the double-edged sword of elections."
According to IRNA, most of the threats associated with the upcoming elections stem from the country's political structure.
The study, employing careful language due to government restrictions, suggests that while free and fair elections could enhance national security by ensuring comprehensive representation and peaceful resolution of people's demands, previous elections have often led to periods of street unrest in Iran over the past decade.
Additionally, the study highlights the lack of political parties in Iran as a major source of instability, posing a significant threat to the regime.
Furthermore, the study emphasizes that well-conducted elections can confer legitimacy on the regime by enabling the appointment of competent officials while removing inefficient and corrupt individuals. Criticism of inefficiency and corruption within the government has been voiced by many insiders in recent years.
Moreover, the study asserts that good elections foster solidarity between the people and the government. However, it fails to acknowledge widespread commentary in the Iranian media about the growing gap between citizens and the government, exacerbated by the government's failure to address demands following the 2022 nationwide protests.
Recent observations suggest that this gap is a primary factor contributing to declining voter turnout in Iranian elections. Additionally, the study notes that political instability resulting from the exclusion of certain political factions from the electoral process is a fundamental flaw in Iran's election system, leading to short-lived and sporadic political party activities.
Meanwhile, prominent Iranian economist Hossein Raghfar said in an interview with Rouydad24 that the prevailing dissatisfaction in the Iranian society is a product of the system of governance in Iran. Raghfar accused infiltrators and profiteers within the Iranian government of exacerbating social problems through illogical policies, resulting in unemployment, recession, inflation, poverty, and inequality. He warns that these conditions will inevitably lead to social unrest.
In the meantime, the government remains unresponsive even to prominent regime insiders such as former president Hassan Rouhani. On Thursday, the former president wrote his 3rd letter to the Guardian Council calling on the ultraconservatives in charge to explain why they have disqualified him from running in the next round of the Assembly of Experts elections on Friday. The only answer he got was that the Council only responds to complaints and Rouhani's letters were not categorized as such.
In another development, the liberal National Front of Iran announced on the same day that it will not take part in the March 1 election, calling it "unreal" and "unhealthy". Announcing the boycott, the National Front said that free political parties, freedom of assembly, freedom of press and media, do not exist in the Islamic Republic and citizens cannot vote for the candidates of their choosing.
While the media remains under government censorship, hundreds of dissidents are either in prison or face indictments. Most Reformist and relatively moderate candidates have been barred from competing in these elections.
“All people, with any [political] inclination and belief, should enthusiastically participate in the elections," the Friday Imam of Yazd, the capital of a province of the same name in eastern Iran, told his congregation Friday.
Naser Mohammadi resorted to the argument that refusing to vote plays into the hands of "the enemy." He urged people to cast their ballots as a means of thwarting the plans of adversaries.
Other officials, such as Reza Deylami, the cultural deputy of the Islamic Propaganda Organization, have echoed similar sentiments, asserting that Iranian participation in the elections will serve as a blow to "the enemies" – referring to the United States, Western countries, and Israel.
"The enemies should await to be slapped in the face by the Iranian nation at ballot boxes,” he said. “We will avenge the blood of the martyrs of Kerman [bombing], Ghasem Soleimani, and the Resistance Front (Iran's allies in the region) at the ballot box," he added.
As in every election and following the decree of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei other regime officials such as Mostafa Mousavi-Esfahani, a member of the Assembly of Experts, insist that voting is a religious duty and the wish of those who sacrificed their lives for the country.
Despite differing political affiliations, officials and regime supporters have converged on the belief that voter turnout, rather than individual candidate selection, holds paramount importance in the elections. They openly admit that it is the regime’s legitimacy which is at stake.
Recently, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei once again appealed to the electorate to vote for the candidates the system has approved and claimed that the United States and other “enemies” desire a low turnout.
This apprehension regarding low voter turnout stems from the regime's longstanding assertion that high participation validates its legitimacy and signifies victory over external adversaries.
Candidates in the upcoming elections have undergone extensive vetting by various security bodies, including the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) intelligence organization and the Ministry of Intelligence. This process ensures the exclusion of political rivals from the competition.
Differences among candidates are quite minimal. Many former insiders, not only reformists but also most moderate conservatives, have been barred from running.
A recent survey by the Netherlands-based Gamaan institute found that nearly three quarter of all eligible voters who responded to its poll had decided not to vote including 39 percent of those who had voted in the parliamentary elections of 2020.
The same survey found that if a referendum was held, nearly 75 percent of its respondents would say no to the Islamic Republic.
Apathy among the general population seems to be so deep that many social media users with strong anti-regime sentiments apparently see no need to try to convince others to stay away from the ballots.
Hardliner regime supporters, however, seem to be very persistent in their efforts to convince people that their vote matters. “Those we prefer will be elected if you don’t vote. So, whose loss will it be, mine or yours?” a regime supporter tweeted with the hashtags “national power” and “people’s choice”.
For the first time in Iranian elections, voters’ birth certificates will not be stamped, and they can use other forms of identity documents such as passports to vote.
Head of Iran's civil registry organization, Hashem Kargar, who is a member of the election taskforce confirmed Friday that the practice of stamping birth certificates has been scraped but claimed that the organization has provided electronic data to the interior ministry to authenticate voters’ identity papers at the ballots.
Some social media users allege that accepting other forms of identity documents and scrapping the practice of stamping birth certificates without appropriate electronic infrastructures is meant to allow regime supporters to cast multiple votes.