Voices Warn Of Authoritarian Minority's Grip On Iran's Future
A Reformist politician in Tehran highlights a concerning trend where a hardliner minority wields disproportionate influence over the fate of the entire Iranian nation.
A Reformist politician in Tehran highlights a concerning trend where a hardliner minority wields disproportionate influence over the fate of the entire Iranian nation.
Gholamreza Zarifian, a prominent political activist, underscored in an interview with Rouydad24 website that this authoritarian minority poses a significant political challenge by promoting radical agendas, ultimately undermining the government's social capital.
Zarifian asserted that four decades post the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iranian conservatives persist in disregarding historical lessons. They cling to the belief that they are divinely ordained to dictate the course of Iran's destiny. This mindset instills a sense of inferiority among the populace, shifting Iran from a nation that propelled the constitutional Revolution in 1905 to one devoid of influence over its own future, largely due to the conservative elite's monopolization of power.
As parliamentary election approach on March 1, there is general apathy among the population, especially after hundreds of regime loyalist candidates were banned from running for no clear reason. In the absence of real competition at least among regime politicians, everyone is aware that hardliners will win the vote.
Zarifian argued that the public mood resembles the same feeling of inferiority among the people that led to the downfall of monarchy and the coming to power of the Islamic Republic in Iran in 1979. He explained: Under the monarchy, the appearance of a modern society existed in Iran as the three powers of the government had been separated from each other, but the people's vote were ignored in furthering the political dynamics of the society. At that time, a minority undermined the interests of the nation and a chosen few imposed their will on the whole society.
Forty-five years after the revolution, the Iranian nation is once again back to the same situation, Zarifian said, adding that the difference is that this time the ruling class of the Islamic Republic uphold none of the rights of the society.
Addressing the flawed electoral process, another reformist figure, Rasoul Montajabnia, urged the government to either ensure free and fair elections or rename the Islamic Republic to reflect its religious governance. He criticized the biased vetting of candidates, emphasizing the stark disparity between the people's expectations and the government's archaic election practices.
He said that Iranians are way ahead of their government and laugh at the backward way the elections are being held. Referring to the lies officials have told the people during the past 45 years. "We have treated the people in a way that if we tell them it is daylight, they would become convinced that it is definitely the nighttime," he said. The cleric said that the arbitrary vetting of candidates by the Guardian Council has left no trace of democracy in Iran.
Montajabnia argued that in some of the constituencies there is no competition as the number of candidates endorsed by the Guardian Council is exactly the same as the number of seats in that constituency.
As an example of how this method of governance affected individuals in the Iranian society, Tehran City Councillor Zahra Nezhad Bahram told the press that some 67 percent of highly educated personnel of the country's knowledge-based companies are planning to leave Iran for good and have already started their emigration process.
This systemic flaw exacerbates frustrations among Iran's educated populace, as evidenced by the significant exodus of skilled professionals seeking opportunities abroad. She emphasized the urgent need for policy reforms to retain and harness the potential of Iran's intellectual capital for sustainable progress.
This surge in exaggeration and falsehoods appears directly correlated with the regime's mounting desperation to achieve its short-term objectives. As the engineered parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections draw near, the regime has intensified its assertions of remarkable achievements, inflated claims of popularity reaching as high as 97 percent, and exaggerated portrayals of economic and scientific advancements.
Mass production of nonsense
During election season, an abundance of superlatives and claims of "firsts" flood the discourse:: Iran is the most independent country in the world, Iran is the first in the production of science, and Iran is the most important global power. Facing a serious economic crisis and lack of popularity, authorities are turning to such statements on a daily basis.
"Today, Iran is among the top 20 countries in the world in terms of economy, and according to statistics, the people of Iran today have good purchasing power," said the Interior Minister.
"More than 97 percent of the people accept the regime and the revolution and will never abandon it," said the Judiciary Minister.
"The people still adhere to the ideals of the regime and the revolution after 45 years," said the Sports Minister.
"Islamic Iran is the most independent country in the world and the whole world accepts this," said the Fars Province governor.
"The Islamic revolution after the Prophet's mission... was the most important event in the history of mankind... the enemies know that no country is as important as Iran," said the deputy commander of IRGC.
These are clear signs of self-aggrandizement, delusion, and living in a self-made bubble in these statements. According to a Goman Institute poll, in response to the question if a free referendum was held today with the inquiry "Islamic Republic: Yes or No?", %75 answered "No to the Islamic Republic" and only 16% said that their answer was positive.
These statements are indicative of self-aggrandizement, delusion, and a detachment from reality. According to a Gamaan Institute poll published on Sunday, when asked in a hypothetical free referendum whether they support the Islamic Republic, 75 percent of respondents answered "No," while only 16 percent expressed support for it.
Heating the election oven
To draw parallels with the 1979 revolution, officials invited people to come to the rooftops on Saturday evening, which was the anniversary of the revolution and chant “Allahu Akbar.” Also, on this night, they set off fireworks all over the country, which met with a cold reaction from the people.
Seizing the moment, many people took to the balconies and behind the windows to shout slogans of the Mahsa movement. Notably, the voices of women and young girls resonated prominently among these chants, underscoring their active participation in the opposition's message.
Despite relentless calls for public participation in the anniversary march, the photos and videos circulated depict a significantly limited turnout. Figures ranging from several thousand to tens of thousands of attendees are exaggerated to portray figures in the millions or tens of millions. But evidently, even the use of Qasem Soleimani’s name to bring out a million people did not succeed.
For the 86 seats in the Assembly of Experts elections, only 144 candidates have been allowed to run. It is clear that the elections are a sham and people are aware of this fact.
Nihilist regime
Waiving the hijab requirement during the anniversary march was a surprising deviation also observed last year during the anniversary of the occupation of the American embassy. This move was even reported by hardline media as a good initiative. Additionally, earlier this month and American adult film actress was allowed to visit the country and tour important landmarks. As the founder of the Islamic Republic Ruhollah Khomeini famously stated, "To protect the regime, even Islamic rulings could be suspended."
The recent revelation by the Prana Network of Iran's clandestine arms deal with Russia, valued at $1.75 billion, has sparked concerns about its implications on global security and regional stability. Additionally, Iran's acquisition of the Russian S-300 air defense system in 2016, along with its forthcoming procurement of advanced Russian military aircraft, signals a significant milestone in their evolving defense partnership.
It's worth noting that under Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran was prohibited from importing and exporting certain missiles, drones, and related technologies without prior UN Security Council approval. However, this resolution expired in October 2023.
This growing alliance has raised concerns about the possibility of Iran supplying precision-guided ballistic missiles to Russia following the expiration of UN sanctions. However, some analysts remain doubtful about Iran's willingness to provide Russia with cutting-edge weaponry, citing concerns about preserving its own military capabilities and its desire for international recognition as a responsible arms trader. Nevertheless, the covert arms agreement between Russia and Iran, alongside their deepening military cooperation, underscores the need for vigilance regarding their actions and their potential impact on both regional and global security dynamics.
Regarding Leaked documents. Theodore Karasik, Senior Advisor from Gulf State Analytics, believes that "This data reveals details of the Russia-Iran relationship regarding weapon systems, despite budget constraints. Despite differences, they collaborate closely, as evidenced by the recent meeting between Russian National Security Advisor Nikolai Patrushev and his counterpart Ali Akbar Ahmadian."
The impact of the arms deals between Russia and Iran on the Middle East
The arms agreement between Iran and Russia has the potential to escalate tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased regional military spending and arsenals. This heightened militarization not only threatens regional stability but also poses risks to American and allied forces when engaging with Tehran's proxies. Additionally, by bolstering Iran's ballistic missile capabilities and potentially supporting Russia's operations in Ukraine, the arms transfer raises concerns about international security and the likelihood of further destabilization. Moreover, the agreement could fuel a regional arms race, undermining efforts towards peace.
Dr. Ariel Cohen, Managing Director of the energy, growth, and security program at the International Tax and Investment Center, and a Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council, has underscored the economic implications of Iran's arms sales to Russia, raising questions about Tehran's motives and the impact on the Iranian people. Concerns persist regarding the involvement of nuclear weapon technology, potentially further destabilizing the Middle East. Additionally, the exchange of advanced weaponry between Iran and Russia poses a significant threat to global security, necessitating careful international monitoring and regulation to prevent escalating conflicts and instability worldwide.
Challenges and Opportunities
Understanding the challenges of Iran's covert arms trade, particularly with Shahed-136 drones and Russian weaponry, is essential for assessing its impact and requires a nuanced understanding of geopolitical dynamics and risks. These challenges include the potential escalation of war, violations of international law and sanctions, threats to regional stability, and reputational risks for Iran as an arms dealer. However, there are also opportunities for economic gains and the growth of Iran's military industry, as well as the strengthening of the Iran-Russian strategic partnership.
In conclusion, the Iran-Russia arms trade underscores geopolitical maneuvers, with Russia deploying inexpensive drones like the Shahed-136 against Ukrainian forces. This highlights the need for international collaboration to regulate the arms trade and ensure accountability, mitigating the destructive effects of conflict and fostering peace in affected regions. Questions about Iran's responsibility for the harm caused by these weapons emphasize the importance of international oversight in managing arms transfers and addressing broader conflict ramifications, advancing principles of transparency, accountability, and peace in conflict zones.