How Were Potential Candidates For Leadership Sidelined In Iran?
Discussions persist in Iran over the contentious ban imposed by regime hardliners preventing former President Hassan Rouhani from running in the March 1 elections.
Discussions persist in Iran over the contentious ban imposed by regime hardliners preventing former President Hassan Rouhani from running in the March 1 elections.
Rouhani’s disqualification is primarily attributed by local media to his perceived low performance during his presidency, the complete removal of the reformists from the political arena by the authoritarian camp, and the regime’s preference for minimal electoral participation.
However, these explanations do not fully address the core reason behind his disqualification. To comprehend this story on a broader scale, one must consider three key realities unfolding at the pinnacle of the power structure within Iran's Islamic Republic:
First, Ali Khamenei, who is currently 84 years old, has undergone significant health issues, including a surgery a decade ago. Over the past ten years, observers have witnessed a noticeable decline in his physical and mental faculties during his televised speeches. The Leader's office and the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) cannot afford to be indifferent to the question of succession. Additionally, during the later stages of leadership in dictatorial regimes, as was evident in the final years of Ayatollah Khomeini's rule, influential figures within the system tend to play a more pivotal role in determining the future leader.
Second, over the past decade, there have been four significant and somewhat unpredictable disqualifications in Iran. These include the disqualification of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani for the presidency in 2013, Hassan Khomeini's exclusion from the Experts Assembly membership in 2015, Ali Larijani's disqualification for the presidency in 2021, and now Hassan Rouhani's disqualification from the Experts Assembly membership. These figures hold influential positions and have the potential to impact various aspects of the establishment, including the issue of succession. Their disqualification effectively marginalizes them and removes them from the political landscape.
Third, Both Hassan Khomeini and Sadegh Larijani emerged as serious contenders for leadership positions over the past decade, owing to their age, political profiles, and positions within the seminary. Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Islamic Republic's founder, currently teaches advanced jurisprudence courses and represents the reformist camp's candidate for the leadership role. Sadeq Larijani, the son of Mirza Hashem Amoli (a prominent Shia source of emulation) and the son-in-law of Vahid Khorasani (a high-ranking Shia authority in Qom Seminary), held influential positions within the traditionalist Islamist camp.
Nevertheless, individuals loyal to the Supreme Leader have sought to obstruct the ascent of these two figures over the past decade. Hassan Khomeini, in particular, has faced verbal attacks from Basij members and government insiders during official ceremonies, especially on the anniversary of his grandfather's death. Khamenei's supporters have accused him and his family of leading an aristocratic lifestyle. His disqualification has dashed the hopes of his followers to influence the Experts Assembly after Ali Khamenei's eventual passing.
Sadeq Larijani was abruptly removed from his position as head of the judiciary in 2021, prior to the end of his usual ten-year term. A high-profile corruption case involving one of his deputies was publicized at that time. Furthermore, he was ousted from the Guardian Council. Mohammad Yazdi, the head of the Qom's Instructors Association, publicly criticized Larijani for establishing an opulent office in Qom. Presently, he heads the Expediency Council but is largely sidelined by other institutions.
The perception of Ali Khamenei's impending demise has led to the elimination of potential rivals to Mojtaba Khamenei, his son and likely successor. Those who could have played a significant role in the Experts Assembly after Khamenei's demise have been sidelined. The establishment seeks individuals who will align with Mojtaba's vision and ensure a smooth transition to the throne, unopposed.
The existence of single-candidate elections, such as those in South Khorasan province during this term, where Ebrahim Raisi was the sole nominee, and numerous single-candidate elections in the past, underscores the process of reserving Experts Assembly seats for those loyal to Khamenei, his office, and the IRGC's intended successor.
Leadership succession within the Islamic Republic holds immense significance for the ruling elite, as it is a matter they cannot leave to chance. Over the past decade, they have carefully engineered individuals and institutions that could play a role in determining the future leader. The fate of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the regime's expansionist agenda, and the future of the Shia clergy, invested in for five decades, hinge on the identity of the future leader. Trillions of dollars, either plundered or yet to be gained, hang in the balance.
The visit will take place just after Iran executed five prisoners it accused of collaborating with Israel in a sham trial. In recent weeks, the authorities have been hanging an average of three persons a day.
In a joint letter released Monday, these organizations underlined the responsibility of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights’ (OHCHR) to prevent its legitimate engagement with the Islamic Republic from becoming a tool to undermine critical mechanisms for advancing human rights in Iran.
They said they acknowledge the value of dialogue and engagement and the legitimate interest of OHCHR in engaging with authorities from all countries on human rights challenges but some factors including the timing of the visit which is only a few weeks before the start of the 55th session of the UN Human Rights Council (HRC “raise very serious concerns”.
“Informed by past experiences, we can anticipate that Iranian authorities will attempt to instrumentalise their formal engagement with your Office and use it as a propaganda tool to undermine support for these existing and very needed monitoring, reporting and investigative mechanisms established by the HRC,” the letter said while urging Al-Nashif to reconsider the timing of her visit and implement a robust strategy to mitigate this risk.
Other civil society groups, political figures, and human rights activists have also made similar appeals to Al-Nashif.
In a message addressed to Al-Nashif on her Instagram Thursday, Iranian Peace Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi pointed out that ahead of her visit to Iran at least four prisoners including a protester, Mohammad Ghobadlou, and a Kurdish political prisoner, Farhad Salimi, were executed last week after unfair trials and in violation of the Islamic Republic’s own laws.
Ebadi urged Al-Nashif to cancel her visit in protest to “extra judicial and increasing executions to prevent the regime from taking advantage of it and using it for propaganda.
Some have also urged the UN official to refuse to wear the hijab during her visit as Iranian authorities require.
“Remember that dozens of women were killed in the struggle against compulsory hijab, and dozens of men who stood up together with Iranian women lost their lives in the hands of the Islamic Republic when you wear a headscarf to please the officials of the Islamic Republic,” some family members of the victims of the downing of Flight PS752 by Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) wrote in an open letter to Al-Nashif.
The Campaign to Free Political Prisoners in Iran urged Al-Nashif to set four preconditions for her visit to Iran, namely, independent visits to prisons, independent meetings with political prisoners sentenced to death, and to publicly announce that she will not wear the hijab during her visit.
UN Human Rights Office spokesperson Marta Hurtado told Radio Farda, the Persian Service of Radio Free Europe in Prague on Tuesday, that the aim of Al-Nashif’s visit to Iran is investigating the possibility of chances for improvement of human rights situation in Iran. She added that it is important to look for ways to discuss these concerns, she said.
In June 2023 Al-Nashif presented a report to the Human Rights Council in Geneva on Wednesday saying that the situation in the Islamic Republic is aggravated against the backdrop of continuously worsening socio-economic conditions and sanctions. However, Tehran always engaged in serious rights violation even during better economic periods.
The report examined developments since the death of 22-year-old Mahsa (Jina) Amini in September in the custody of the morality police that sparked widespread protests throughout the country and said there had been a spike in death sentences and executions during that period.
In a meeting with approximately a thousand business people and leading industrialists on Tuesday , Ali Khamenei underscored the pivotal role of the private sector in realizing Iran's major economic objectives, pressing for government backing, especially in removing obstacles to business.
Almost all industrial sectors of the country, including oil, gas, petrochemicals, auto manufacturing and banking systems are owned and governed by state entities. Khamenei claimed that the country’s economy is under “supervision of the government, which is different from intervention.” “This supervision is absolutely not subject to compromise," he underlined.
Khamenei’s meeting took place a day after he visited an “exhibition of Iran’s domestic production capabilities.” Unlike similar events that are normally held in designated fairgrounds, the event was held in a bunker at Khamenei’s residence, the so-called Imam Khomeini Hussainia, prompting a lot of Iranians to mock it online. “The exhibition we had the opportunity to visit was very inspiring and important. I believe this exhibition was a showcase of the scientific and technological prowess of the country,” Khamenei said Tuesday.
According to a report by Iran's leading economic newspaper Donyaye Eghtesad (World of Economy) earlier in January, production-related issues such as raw material shortages and difficulties in securing foreign currency have led to the suspension of many production units, pushing the manufacturing industry further into decline.
Soaring inflation, reduced consumer purchasing power, and a decline in demand for intermediate goods, also known as producer goods or semi-finished products, coupled with the government’s contractionary approach to the industrial sector and its interventions, have exacerbated the downturn in sales.
Despite the national currency rial hitting unprecedented lows due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the potential for a US military clash with Iran as well as the prospect of Donald Trump winning the US presidency, Khamenei continues to outwardly retain an air of optimism. He expressed confidence that despite obstacles such as sanctions and unemployment, the Iranian economy has made substantial progress.
He emphasized that the private sector has the potential to propel Iran toward achieving the targeted 8% growth outlined in its seventh five-year plan. Conversely, the World Bank reported the outlook for Iran's GDP growth as 2.9% in 2022, 2.2% in 2023, and 1.9% in 2024.
The rial hit an all-time low on Tuesday amid fears of US retaliation for a drone attack over the weekend that killed three American servicemen in Jordan. The US dollar rose to nearly 600,000 rials, the highest since February 2022, when it briefly traded at that level.The Iranian currency, which has steadily lost value since the 1979 revolution, has fallen about 13-fold since 2018, when then-president Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and international banking. Since then, the dollar rose from 42,000 rials to more than 580,000. Before the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, the dollar traded at 70 rials.
On Tuesday, as the devaluation of the rial gained momentum, Iran International learnt that currency exchange offices in Tehran are now forbidden from publicly disclosing rates. The market is enveloped in a security atmosphere marked by the presence of plain clothes agents. Many exchange offices opt to abstain from transactions at the government-issued rates, leading them to either shut down or claim insufficient funds for currency exchanges.
Sepehr Khalaji, the Chief of Iran’s Economic Information and Publicity Headquarters, said Tuesday that “the enemy has orchestrated a situation to create economic fluctuations.” In the Islamic Republic's jargon "enemy" is used to refer primarily to the United States and Israel, and sometimes to their allies.
Hardline newspaper Kayhan, Khamenei’s mouthpiece, also claimed Tuesday that “the exchange rate of the dollar is determined by several Telegram channels outside the country and some channels affiliated with those foreign entities within the country,” once more falling back on foreign influence for the country's decline.
Iranian authorities consistently exhibit ambivalence about the impacts of international measures on the nation's economy. They often attribute any shortcomings to the actions of the US and its allies while simultaneously asserting that these punitive measures lack substantial efficacy.