Iran Boosting Drone Proliferation Amid Red Sea Concerns

“The current constitution was ratified at the time of the previous generation. A new generation and new conditions and demands have emerged but the law has not changed,” said the top religious leader of Iran’s largely Sunni Baluch (Baloch) population in his Friday prayer sermons in Zahedan.

Abdolhamid also criticized the vetting process of the Guardian Council which only allows hardliners to run as candidates in the elections, further questioning the council’s decision to disqualify Iran’s former president Hassan Rouhani.

On Wednesday, it was announced that Rouhani, once considered to be one of the candidates for succeeding Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has been barred from running for re-election at the Assembly of Experts that is tasked with electing the next leader.

Abdolhamid also called on the Islamic Republic to review its execution campaign, warning that it will widen the gap between the people and the political establishment.

The Halvash website, which covers developments in Sistan-Baluchestan Province, reported the extensive presence of the security forces in Zahedan at the same time as the Friday prayers were held.

The people of Sistan-Baluchestan, with Zahedan as provincial capital, have been holding weekly demonstrations after security forces opened fire at peaceful protesters, killing nearly 100 on September 30, 2022, a day known as the Bloody Friday of Zahedan.

“How can someone who had been the secretary and the chairperson of the Supreme National Security Council, who had served several terms as a member of the parliament and the Assembly of Experts be disqualified?” Es’haq Jahangiri said.

Jahangiri stressed that “today, more than ever,” the Islamic Republic needs to restore hope and gain people’s trust, amid dire economic and sociopolitical hardships.

On Wednesday, Iranian hardliners controlling a conspicuous vetting mechanism told the former president that he was barred from running for re-election at the Assembly of Experts that will elect the next Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei’s death.

However, the Iranian public remains indifferent to Rouhani’s disqualification. Iran International TV analyst Mehdi Mahdavi Azad said Rouhani left a legacy of disappointment after over 20 million Iranians voted for him in 2013 and 2017 before he aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his supporters.

Now, Khamenei has effectively alienated all of Iran’s former presidents, including Rouhani, who was once believed to be one of the candidates for succession as Supreme Leader. He is the last one to be jettisoned out of what many see as Khamenei’s sinking ship.

Iran’s parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections are to be held on March 1. According to the results of the vetting process, the Guardian Council has only allowed hardliners and supporters of the regime to run as candidates.

The Yemeni militia have disrupted the Red Sea with dozens of attacks in solidarity with Gaza militants Hamas since the Palestinian group declared war on Israel on October 7.

Meetings have allegedly taken place in Beijing and Tehran as China aims to protect its own shipping, threatening that if action isn’t taken by Iran to reign in its proxy, business relations between the two nations will be at risk.

"Basically, China says: 'If our interests are harmed in any way, it will impact our business with Tehran. So tell the Houthis to show restraint'," Reuters quoted an Iranian official briefed on the talks, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The attacks, which began in November, have raised the cost of shipping and insurance by disrupting a key trade route between Asia and Europe used widely by ships from China. The passage is responsible for 12 percent of global trade.

For the last decade, China has been Iran’s biggest trading partner, with Chinese oil refiners buying over 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports last year alone, according to Kpler.

While global sanctions weigh heavily on Iran, China has offered a lifeline, gaining huge discounts in the process, though Iran’s oil only accounts for 10 percent of China’s crude imports.

Though the two nations signed a 25-year economic cooperation agreement in 2021, China has not invested as much as was hoped in Tehran, nor engaged in non-oil trade to the extent envisaged.

Iranian state media says Chinese firms have only invested $185 million since then. State media also said last year that Iranian non-oil exports to China fell 68% in the first five months of 2023 while Iran's imports from China rose 40%.

By contrast, Chinese companies committed last year to invest billions in Saudi Arabia after the countries signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in December 2022.

China has been slowly increasing its influence in the region as was seen in last year’s reinstating of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia after seven years of tensions, China among the nations facilitating the detente.

However, while China holds sway in Tehran, the situation is complex. Tehran risks backlash from its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, which have also been acting in allegiance with Hamas against both Israeli and US targets since the Gaza war began.

China's ministry of foreign affairs told Reuters: "China is a sincere friend of the countries of the Middle East and is committed to promoting regional security and stability and seeking common development and prosperity."

"We firmly support Middle Eastern countries in strengthening their strategic independence and uniting and collaborating to resolve regional security issues," without directly referring to the talks over the Red Sea passage. Iran's foreign ministry did not comment.

The disruption by the Yemeni militia, trained and backed by Tehran, has triggered military strikes by the US and British forces but it has failed to stem the tide.

According to Reuters, a senior US official said Washington had asked China to use its leverage with Iran to persuade it to restrain the Houthis, including in conversations Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had this month with senior Chinese Communist Party official Liu Jianchao.

Iran denied the claims that China had since expressed concerns but on January 14, China's foreign minister Wang Yi called to end the attacks on civilian ships in the Red Sea, though did not name the Houthis or reference Iran.

On Thursday, Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam said Iran had not conveyed any message from China about scaling back attacks.

"They will not inform us of such a request, especially since Iran's stated position is to support Yemen. It condemned the American-British strikes on Yemen, and considered Yemen's position honourable and responsible," he told Reuters.

While Tehran claims that the Houthis’ action is independent, in spite of the blockade being called for by Iran’s Supreme Leader himself, the complexity of Iran’s shadow war against Israel and the US continues, and the influence of China yet to be seen.

“We had three meetings with the management of the Gandhi Hospital before the incident and issued the necessary warnings regarding the safety of the building”, said Mehdi Khosravani, crisis manager of the 6th district of Tehran municipality, where the hospital is located.

According to the official, the Gandhi Hospital was required to have a consultant on how to implement the most advanced firefighting and fire alarm systems in order to maintain safety in the building.

“In general, we have warned about 40 large public and private hospitals in this district over their unsafe conditions”, he stressed.

Motahar Mohammadkhani, the spokesperson for Tehran municipality, also blamed the hospital’s management for the blaze. “This would not have happened if the hospital administrators had heeded earlier warnings. The judicial system should step in,” he stated.

Meanwhile, Hossein Nazari, deputy of urban services of Tehran municipality, said images broadcast made the fire look larger than the reality due to the composite façade of the building. “The fire was an ordinary one,” he claimed, downplaying the scale of the incident.

State TV said the area was cordoned off and the hospital evacuated.

Pedram Pak-Ayin, the spokesperson for Iran’s Health Ministry, said that “none” of the staff and patients at the Gandhi Hospital were harmed but said patients were transferred to other medical centers.

The exact cause of the fire has yet to be determined.

“If a security message was passed on by the US, it was intended to protect Washington from Iran’s response, especially after the Israeli war in Gaza,” IRNA quoted an Iranian security official as saying.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that the US had warned the Islamic Republic of the impending bombings which claimed the lives of 95 people in Kerman earlier this month.

In spite of the warning that Islamic State’s affiliate in Afghanistan, ISIS-Khorasan, known as ISIS-K, planned to commit the attacks at the commemoration ceremony of slain Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani, Iran failed to prevent the deadly bombings, the report added.

Separately, Iran International has learned that the US passed the warning to Iran more than one week before the attack.

Speaking to Iran International, a US official said, “Prior to ISIS’ terrorist attack on January 3, 2024, in Kerman, Iran, the US Government provided Iran with a private warning that there was a terrorist threat within Iranian borders.

“The US Government followed a longstanding ‘duty to warn’ policy that has been implemented across administrations to warn governments against potential lethal threats. We provide these warnings in part because we do not want to see innocent lives lost in terror attacks.”

The attack was the deadliest since the birth of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Many Iranians questioned why Soleimani’s family members and top officials were absent from the memorial at his gravesite in Kerman, raising the validity of the US warning as to their absence.