US And Iran Agree ISIS Bombed Soleimani’s Memorial Event
Iran and the United States ironically concurred with ISIS Friday that the group's Afghan branch was behind the deadly twin bombings in Iran on Wednesday.
Iran and the United States ironically concurred with ISIS Friday that the group's Afghan branch was behind the deadly twin bombings in Iran on Wednesday.
Iran’s Intelligence Ministry announced that arrests had been made a few hours after the attack, and one of the two alleged suicide bombers was a Tajik national.
“The first operation was carried out in the evening of the day that terror attacks happened,” Iran’s intelligence ministry said in a statement, “resulting in the arrest of those who transported the terrorists into the country.”
A few hours later, Reuters reported that “intercepts” collected by the United States proved that the Afghanistan branch of ISIS had carried out the twin attacks, in which 91 people were killed, a quarter of them children.
"The intelligence is clear-cut and indisputable," Reuters quoted an anonymous US source familiar with the intelligence who did not offer more details.
The bombers struck a memorial service for Iran’s most powerful –and best known– military and intelligence figure, General Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by a US drone strike in Baghdad four years ago.
No one claimed responsibility for the attack for almost 30 hours, when reports appeared –first at Reuters then others– that ISIS (or Daesh) had issued a statement posted on the chat app Telegram.
In the statement, ISIS said two operatives wearing explosive suicide belts had carried out the attack.
Many questions were raised, both from officials and state-affiliated activists –who blamed US and Israel– as well as ordinary Iranians –who pointed the finger at the regime itself.
On Friday, authorities in Iran announced that 11 people had been arrested in connection with the bombings, including people who have helped the perpetrators enter the country and hide in a place outside Kerman.
IRGC’s commander in chief Major General Hossein Salami confirmed the role of ISIS but laid the ultimate responsibility on Israel and the US.
“They [ISIS] can only act as agents and mercenaries of America and Zionism,” he said. “But we give them this warning; if you are brave enough, fight us, why are you killing defenseless women and children?
Israel and the US have not officially commented on the role of ISIS. But officials from the Biden administration have denied any involvement in the bombings.
“The United States was not involved in any way, and any suggestion to the contrary is ridiculous,” the State Department’s spokesperson Matthew Miller said Thursday, “and we have no reason to believe that Israel was involved in this explosion."
Inside Iran, people seem to be concerned more about the repercussions of the bombings than the identity of its perpetrators. And for good reason.
Barely a day after the attack, cyber agents of the regime started a campaign targeting ordinary Iranians who had ridiculed or criticized Soleimani and his memorial service on their anonymous social media accounts.
The campaign has led to several arrests, as the agents keep identifying and exposing the citizens behind anonymous accounts.
On Friday, Iranian activists launched a counter-campaign to raise awareness about the cyber agents’ activity on X, which they say breaches the platform's codes.
Thousands have used the hashtag #BanTerroristAccounts, many mentioning X’s owner Elon Musk, hoping that he takes note and moves against Iran’s cyber agents, whose accounts are still mostly active, allowing them to identify more people and effectively hand them to authorities.
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As part of the online campaign, several people were arrested in what appears to be a broader intimidation effort against those critical of the regime. Despite widespread reporting and warnings about the severity of the matter, the accounts of Iran’s cyber agents behind such actions remain active.
No one knows how the regime agents uncover anonymous users' identities and expose them on social media, or send messages to them to silence them. It could be the result of a vast and sophisticated intelligence operation, where accounts are scrutinized for clues, and detailed cross referencing leads to identifying users. Also, individuals who use Iranian social media platforms expose their personal information to the government, who controls these platforms.
The so-called "cyberies" employ various methods, with one of the most commonly used techniques being the creation of simple trends, such as "share a black&white photo of yourself" or "what is difficult about your job?". In these trends, individuals innocently share photos or details about their lives, unwittingly assisting in the identification of their accounts.
Another method involves the use of paid accounts on X, which allows calling Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). Calling APIs allows the X user to access servers and retrieve all data on individuals interacting with his/her posts, helping them narrow down information to identify the actual person behind the account. According to IRGC’s Basij paramilitary chief Gholamreza Soleimani, there are a significant number of these cyber units, with him stating in 2021 that there were "3,500 cyber battalions" supporting the regime online. Additionally, Iranian applications used for everyday activities like banking services and online shopping serve as another key source of information.
“The Islamic Republic’s accounts used in this campaign have been reported to X by thousands of people alongside warnings about the gravity of the matter,” read a post by the activist account 1500 Tasvir, which runs popular Instagram and Twitter accounts. Highlighting that the failure to deactivate these accounts directly endangers Iranian lives, the group said, “Nevertheless, all of these accounts are still active in pursuit of this nasty act of oppression.”
For years, the Islamic Republic has blocked Twitter for Iranians while exploiting the platform for its propaganda, with senior officials and leaders openly – yet hypocritically – actively using it. Millions of Iranians are paying monthly fees for VPNs to skirt the blocking of X and other platforms.
However, recent developments indicate the regime is now using X as a tool to help identify, interrogate and consequently detain dissidents. Addressing tech tycoon Elon Musk -- the X owner, 1500 Tasvir said that the Islamic Republic has “weaponized” the platform into a tool of suppression.
An Iranian online activist told Iran International that the regime's cyber agents exposed her identity after she posted criticisms of the Islamic Republic's propaganda campaign regarding the twin blasts in Kerman. Despite exercising caution to avoid sharing personal information online, the activist revealed that the cyber agents went ahead and disclosed her identity, hometown, educational history, and workplace, warning her that she is under the regime's watch.
Earlier in the week, the Prosecutor's Office in Yazd province announced the arrest of an individual for posting messages on X regarding the Kerman explosions and casualties. The account holder was identified by the cyber agents of the Intelligence Ministry and was transferred to prison. The Prosecutor's Office has accused the individual of having ties to Israel and alleges that they "published insulting tweets about the martyrs of Kerman."
Also on Friday, Iran’s prosecutor-general threatened legal action against individuals publishing norm-breaking content about the twin bombing in Kerman. The bombing targeted a large public gathering commemorating Qasem Soleimani, the late commander of the IRGC's Quds Force, who was killed by a US drone strike in January 2020. Nearly 90 people were killed in the incident and 284 were injured.
Despite the warning, numerous individuals have taken to social media to express their dissatisfaction with the government's perceived inadequate security measures leading to the deadly incident in Kerman. Critics argue that the failure to ensure the safety of public gatherings resulted in this deadly attack.
Another victim of the new intimidation campaign was Nasrin Shakarami, whose 16-year-old daughter Nika was found dead 10 days after she left home to take part in an anti-government protest on September 20, 2022. The cyber agents threatened to disclose her home address in the city of Karaj, near the capital Tehran. They said they would take her from her home, force her into a naked walk of shame around town, and kill her. Shakarami had published a post after the Kerman incident, pointing out that how come none of senior officials or even the family members of Soleimani were not attending the ceremony at his burial site.
As a countermeasure, Iranians have launched a campaign to raise global awareness about the exposures through the hashtag #BanTerroristAccounts. Dissidents plead for support in reporting government accounts revealing personal information, emphasizing the life-and-death stakes for those affected. Individuals and organizations are urged to join the global effort to shed light on the critical issue and shut down government-affiliated accounts using the hashtag.
The report didn’t explain the reason for the decline, but, a comparison of the new numbers for the labor force (employed or seeking jobs) with four years ago indicates that in fact, 3.6 million job seekers have given up. This might explain the decline in the official unemployment rate.
The reason for the declining unemployment rate is not the creation of new jobs, but a decline of those seeking employment. This is more logical given deep recessions and an economic crisis since 2018, when the United States withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear accord and imposed economic sanctions.
The unemployment rate is defined as the ratio of unemployed individuals actively seeking jobs to the total active members of society, or the labor force. The unemployment rate can only decrease when either job seekers find jobs, or the unemployed give up looking for work. In Iran's case, the second scenario has occurred.
Iran's Statistical Center 's figures indicate that around 44.3 percent of individuals aged 15 and above were active (employed or in job search) during the fall of 2019. However, the recent report shows that the active labor force has declined to 41.5 percent.
If 3.6 million individuals were not discouraged from job hunting and remained active, the real unemployment rate this fall would have exceeded 18%.
Additionally, details from the Statistics Center's report indicate that two million of the country's 24.77 million employed individuals have incomplete employment, working less than 44 hours per week.
Earlier, the Parliament Research Center had highlighted that a large percentage of younger people had given up seeking employment, stating that the real unemployment rate in the country is 2.5 times higher than the official figures.
World Bank statistics also reveal a decrease in the ratio of employed individuals in Iran compared to the labor force population over the past four years.
President Ebrahim Raisi's administration, without acknowledging these realities, has claimed a significant reduction in the unemployment rate by only calculating unemployed individuals seeking jobs against the total active population.
Low Employment Rates among Educated Youth and Women
The details of the new report from the Statistical Center indicate that 43 percent of those seeking jobs hold higher education degrees.
This highlights a significant challenge for young graduates in finding jobs. Additionally, the economic participation rate of women is remarkably low, with approximately 11.4% of Iranian women in working age being employed.
In other words, nearly 91% of women above the age of 15 in Iran are without any occupation, even in family-related businesses such as farming and agriculture.
The World Bank statistics reveal that, among regional countries, only Iraq and Yemen have a worse employment situation than Iran.
In comparison, the employment ratio of working women to the total female population above 15 years of age is around 57% in Qatar and 49% in the UAE. A similar situation prevails in Kuwait and Bahrain, with the female workforce ratios above 56% in the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Even in the traditionally conservative Saudi Arabia, which had a comparable employment ratio with Iran in early-2010s, the figure has now increased to more than 29%, surpassing Iran by 2.5 times. A similar situation is observed in Oman.
Economic Indicators: Inflation, Unemployment, and Wage Disparities
The combined rates of unemployment and inflation constitute the "misery index," with Iran consistently ranking among the top countries in the region, facing high misery scores.
It is evident that wage disparities in Iran are also the worst in the region, with the average income of employed individuals in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar being 7 times, 13 times, and 18 times higher than in Iran. Even in Azerbaijan and Armenia, the average wages are approximately double those in Iran.
This substantial wage gap exists while the Raisi administration has increased the minimum wage by about 20% for the coming fiscal year, starting on March 22. However, the increase is not even half of the the annual inflation rate in the country. Another notable point is that a significant portion of employed women in Iran do not receive wages as they work in family-related jobs, especially in agriculture.
The World Bank estimates that only 60 percent of employed women in Iran receive wages. In contrast, in Qatar, 100 percent of employed women receive wages, 94 percent in the United Arab Emirates, and in Saudi Arabia, it is over 88 percent.
Moreover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) figures reveal that the gender pay gap in Iran is approximately 23 percent in public sector occupations and around 36 percent in non-governmental jobs, indicating a significant gender-based wage disparity in Iran.