Iranian Daily Warns Of Escalation After US Resolution On Frozen Assets

Reformist commentator Abbas Abdi, citing a poll by the ISPA agency, predicts that fewer than 15 percent of eligible voters in Tehran may participate in the March 1 election. He suggests a similar situation in other major cities. Abdi, writing in Tehran's Etemad newspaper, emphasizes that while many expected a low turnout, ISPA's poll offers a more precise estimate.

According to Abdi, the poll, which was conducted in face-to-face interviews with citizens all over Iran, showed that at least 28 percent of those who took part in it have said that they will "certainly not take part" in the elections. Another 7 percent have said that they will "most probably will not be participating.”

As an experienced pollster who has spent a year in jail previously for sharing data with US polling agency Gallop, Abdi argued that the 32 percent projected turnout, while a cautious estimate for a higher turnout, is still very low. Abdi suggested that unless the government's policies change noticeably, this figure will likely decline before voting day. He pointed out that the 32 percent projection is based on the fact that 68 percent of eligible voters are uncertain about participating, and if details are revealed, only 7 to 10 percent of educated youth may turn up.

In another development reformist politician Mohammad Atrianfar told Khabar Online website in Tehran that biased and selective vetting of candidates has badly harmed the situation of elections in Iran.

This comes while conservative commentator Naser Imani who took part in an interview alongside Atrianfar said that the disqualification of 10 or 20 candidates cannot affect the fate of the elections. However, Imani's figures underestimate the number of disqualified candidates as more than 40 incumbent members of the parliament and several reformist candidates are known to have been disqualified in the first phase of the vetting by the Interior Ministry.

Authorities offer no clear explanation about these disqualifications, which are widely seen as an attempt by a faction of hardliners to monopolize power.

Atrianfar said that the ambiguous situation surrounding an informal registration that was done within a very short period of time ahead of the official registration of candidates robbed many well-known politicians of the opportunity to make the right decision to run for the elections. He said both right-wing and left-wing parties have criticized the way the registration and the vetting has been done.

As a result, Atrianfar said, while usually one to two percent of those who had registered in the previous rounds of the elections were disqualified by the Interior Ministry, in this round the Ministry has disqualified between 25 to 28 percent of those who had registered.

Imani, on the other hand, said "what is likely to lead to a low turnout in the upcoming elections is the political despair that has emerged during recent years. This approach to elections has barred well-known political figures from running." He said, "If it wasn't for this mood of general despair, Mr. Atrianfar and I would have also registered to run for the Majles elections."

The report an excerpt of which was published by the reformist Etemad newspaper highlights significant qualitative deficiencies in Iran's education system. Alongside these shortcomings, the system is criticized for a lack of justice in providing educational opportunities and a legitimacy gap, stemming from disparities between students' expectations and authorities' ideological perspectives.

According to the report, this disconnect has severed ties between the educational system and civil society, leading to resistance from students, their families, and even teachers against the system's policies. The study group, comprised of experts, researchers, and educators, convened at the invitation of former reformist president Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005) to address these issues.

“The education system has turned into an arena for those in power to pursue their political goals,” the report says, explaining that schoolbooks and teacher training and selection have become engineering tools to ensure the political and ideological goals.

The report contends that the accelerating privatization of education in Iran has disproportionately disadvantaged poorer regions, with some areas, like Sistan- Baluchestan Province, having villages located up to fifty kilometers from the nearest school. Schoolbooks, first re-written after the 1979 revolution, have been modified over the years to align with Islamic standards, have increasingly become tools to serve the political interests of the hardliners in power, imposing their ideological values.

Religious censorship has invaded many textbooks, including literature and history, where the hardliner Shiite faction has imposed its own version of values on the educational system. Some writers and poets have been purged from textbooks while others have been given a more prominent place. Even Islamic history has been manipulated to fit the narrow religious agenda of the ruling hardliners.

In recent weeks, reports indicate that hardliners controlling parliament and enjoying influence in the presidential administration, have begun hiring thousands of their followers as teachers and school principals, without any consideration for qualification.

Resistance against the ideological values of the hardliner clerical rulers clearly manifested itself last year during the several-month-long Woman, Life, Freedom protests when female students displayed their anger by refusing to wear the mandatory hijab and protested both inside and outside schools in many areas of the country. Some of the students who were arrested for protesting were banned from attending school. 

Many Iranians suspect the mysterious poisoning incidents that affected thousands of students across the country following the protests were orchestrated as revenge by the regime or the religious hardliners it protects. This was perceived as a measure to intimidate and subdue those involved in the protest movement. The poisonings began in Qom on November 30, spreading nationwide until April, leading to hospitalizations and at least one reported death.

Authorities first denied any suspicious activity, then admitted “mild poison attacks”. Later they blamed dissidents and foreign powers and arrested some individuals who they blamed for isolated cases and forced to make televised “confessions”.

Eventually in a statement on April 28, the intelligence ministry denied any indication that poisonous substances had caused the illness of students and said samples taken from the scene of the incidents examined by “the most reliable laboratories” in the country had not yielded any suspicious materials. The ministry blamed pranksters who it claimed had used stink pots, pepper sprays, tear gas and similar substances to disrupt classes.

The bill, named the No Funds for Iranian Terrorism Act, is yet another Congressional move aiming to pressure the Biden administration to harden its stance on Iran. Ninety Democrats joined all but one of House Republicans to pass the bill 307-119.

Rep. Michael McCaul, who introduced the bill, slammed the administration for making funds available to a government that sponsors Hamas, questioning the administration’s motive.

“There’s something else going on here,” McCaul said, “a deal we don’t know about,” suggesting that the Biden administration may have released the $6 billion to help bring about another nuclear agreement with Tehran.

Republicans have been opposing the ‘hostage deal’ ever since it was announced in August, but their opposition has intensified since October 7, when Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,200 and taking more than 200 hostage.

“The idea that you can just take Hamas and keep it separate from Iran has always been a farce,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise. “Iran funds Hamas, and everybody knows it… We shouldn't even need the bill. The administration should be standing there saying we're not giving them the money anymore.”

But those close to President Biden argue that releasing the $6 billion had been necessary and key to securing the release of five Iranian-American hostages.

“Every member of Congress who was aware of these cases wanted our fellow citizens home,” said Rep. Gregory Meeks, ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “Reneging on the deal would hurt U.S. global credibility.”

Biden critics say the deal has sent a signal that the US government would “reward hostage-taking”. They accuse Biden of emboldening the regime in Iran as well as its proxies across the Middle East.

Since mid-October, when Israel began its onslaught on Gaza, Iranian-backed groups have launched dozens of attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. And from Yemen, the Houthis have been launching drone and missile attacks.

Not surprisingly, the bill was amended Thursday to state the Iranian-backed Houthis are benefitting from the Biden administration’s failure to condemn them, and perhaps more importantly, prohibit the use of US federal funds for Iran.

“There is only one language that is understood by our adversaries,” Rep. Keith Self said on the House floor in support of the bipartisan bill, “that is strength.”

The bill will have to pass the Senate, which is not likely given the Democratic majority in the upper chamber. But if it were to pass and turn into law, it would impose new sanctions to prevent any transfer of money to Iran.

Republican lawmakers in both chambers are aggravated by what they see as President Biden’s soft approach to Iran. Some have gone so far as to call his policy “appeasement.”

“This administration has subverted Israel and boosted Iran for nearly 3 years,” Senator Ted Cruz posted on his X account. “Rob Malley, who headed up his nuclear negotiations with Iran, had Iranian spies working under him at the State Department.”

On Thursday, 25 Senators signed an open letter to oppose the administration’s sanctions relief to Iran.

Addressing the three secretaries of State, Defense and the Treasury, the Senators (led by Senator Tim Scott) conveyed displeasure at the fact that despite attacks on American troops, “it is business as normal on the economic front."

The letter reads: “We therefore request that your departments provide us with a classified assessment on the administration’s plan to deter Iranian aggression and prevent the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. This assessment should be provided in a member or staff-level briefing no later than December 7, 2023.”

The post, initially created following the Islamic Republic's inception, was abolished in 1989 after the fallout between the first leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and the country's inaugural deputy supreme leader, Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who remained under house arrest until his death in 2009.

The absence of a designated successor since 1989 poses a potential threat to Iran's stability, both before and after Khamenei's eventual passing.

Ayatollah Rahim Tavakol, a member of the Assembly of Experts, disclosed on November 28 that a committee within the Assembly has been assigned the task of appointing a deputy supreme leader. While the matter was not discussed in the recent Assembly meeting, Tavakol emphasized the confidentiality of the committee's work, stating that only its members, including himself and the Assembly chairman, have knowledge of the selected candidates. 

He said, "no one other than the committee members including myself and the chairman of the Assembly know the names of those who have been selected as possible deputy supreme leader. So, there was no discussion about this at the Assembly meeting."

Tavakol made it clear that "what the committee does and whom it choses is a secret." Although he tried his best to be secretive about the matter, when reformist Jamaran News website speculated that President Ebrahim Raisi and Tehran Friday Prayers Leader Ahmad Khatami are the other members of the committee, Tavakol said: "Yes. And I am on the committee too."

He clarified that Khamenei is the sole individual privy to the names of the potential nominees for the deputy supreme leader role. The committee, known as "The Committee to Determine the Next Leader," consists of only three members, raising questions about the roles of the remaining 88 members of the Assembly of Experts.

Meanwhile, responding to criticisms about the Assembly of experts presenting reports of its activities to Khamenei rather than keeping checks and balances on the leader's performance as stipulated by Iran's Constitution, he said the Assembly does not interfere with the leader and the institutions that operate under his aegis, nonetheless, there is a two-way relationship between the leader and the Assembly of Experts.

Last week, former President Hassan Rouhani openly spoke about the possibility of Khamenei's death and the importance of the issue of succession. He said, "every day brings us closer to the day of his death although we wish him a long life." 

Despite frequent expressions of support by Khamenei and his loyalists for Hamas since the start of the Gaza war, the Iranian government has decided not to get directly involved and assist its proxy militarily. Khamenei has even softened his position somewhat regarding Israel, showing his overall weak position. There have also been concerns about his health after his meeting with athletes last week, during which he looked and sounded frail.

The interview by Tavakol, could be an attempt to prepare the mood for an announcement about the next leader.

One possible solution is to designate a collective body. However, since 1988, Assembly of Experts has opposed a collective leadership by a group of clerics, as conflict of interests could drag the country into chaos. Consequently, individual leadership by figures like Khamenei's son Mojtaba, President Ebrahim Raisi, and former President Hassan Rouhani are more likely choices, despite their diminished popularity. The ultimate decision, however, remains uncertain, as the people's desires, if considered, present an entirely different narrative. 

There have been numerous calls by former regime supporters in recent years to drastically alter the constitution and either eliminate the position of the Supreme Leader or reduce its power. Popular protests since 2017 have also shown a growing public rejection of Khamenei’s rule and clerical domination. 

On Wednesday, the Treasury said those sanctioned helped generate funds for Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics, the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS), and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF), the extraterritorial wing of the IRGC.

"Iran generates the equivalent of billions of dollars via commodity sales to fund its destabilizing regional activities and support of multiple regional proxy groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah," the Treasury said, referring to the Islamist Palestinian militant group and the Lebanese Shiite armed force and political party.

The Treasury said the Iranian military used "intricate networks of foreign-based front companies and brokers to enable these illicit commercial activities."

US Department of State Spokesperson Matthew Miller noted that Iranian military entities and their business partners enable these sales and exploit the international financial system to recoup the revenue, further fueling the conflict in Israel - which broke out on October 7 following a surprise invasion by Hamas - and spreading terror throughout the Middle East. “The United States will continue to disrupt Iran’s funding support for terrorists.”

The Iranian regime has become the focus of attention in the West after the terror attack on Israel by Hamas which has led to the bloodiest conflict in Gaza since the militant group took control in 2007.

Although voicing unequivocal support for Hamas, Tehran has been denying any role in the bloody invasion that killed around 1,400 Israelis. Iran’s strategy since the 1980s, when it helped establish Hezbollah, has been to use militant and violent groups to build influence around the world and target the interests of Israel and Western countries.

The new round of sanctions includes Iran-based companies Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars Company and Pishro Tejarat Sana Company as well as Iranian citizens Majid A’zami, Elyas Niroomand Toomaj and Abdoljavad Alavi. Treasury also put sanctions on two Hong Kong-based firms, accusing Puyuan Trade Co Limited of brokering sales of tens of millions of condensate, a form of ultralight crude oil, to HK Sihang Haochen Trading Limited.

Also sanctioned were several United Arab Emirates-based firms. These included Unique Performance General Trading LLC, to which Sepehr Energy agreed to sell Iranian light crude for delivery in China, and OPG Global General Trading Co LLC, which offered to sell crude and gasoline on Sepehr Energy's behalf to Persian Gulf customers for onward shipment to Europe, the Treasury said.

In addition, Washington sanctioned Dubai-based JEP Petrochemical Trading LLC, which paid Dubai-based Future Energy Trading LLC the equivalent of more than $400 million to buy Iranian oil from Sepehr Energy.

Three other companies targeted were Dubai-based A Three Energy FZE along with Sharjah-based brokers Tetis Global FZE and Royal Shell Goods Wholesalers LLC, which Sepehr Energy used to enable sales of Iranian commodities to foreign buyers.

After the US, Dubai has one of the largest populations of Iranians outside Iran, both pro and anti regime.

In addition, the Treasury said it had imposed sanctions on four companies and three individuals for supporting illicit financial networks on behalf of the IRGC-QF.

It named the companies as UAE-based Transmart DMCC and Solise Energy (FZE) and as Singapore-based MSE Overseas PTE Ltd and Sealink Overseas PTE Ltd and the individuals as Zabi Vahap, Adelina Kuliyeva and Mehboob Thachankandy Palikandy.

US officials have attributed the prevention of specific weapons parts sales to Iran to a controversial surveillance authority, Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, a tool that is set to expire at the end of the year.

The surveillance effort successfully thwarted multiple shipments of advanced weapons components intended for Iran via land, air, and sea as the CIA and various intelligence agencies leveraged data collected through monitoring the electronic communications of foreign weapons manufacturers. Section 702 allows intelligence agencies to collect and analyze communications such as emails and text messages of foreigners living abroad.

There is a hot debate in Washington over whether to reauthorize the tool or reform it, with the Biden administration arguing that it is crucial to national security and Section 702 will lose much of its usefulness if more guardrails are put on it.

US officials say Section 702 was critical to stopping the weapons sales in the case of Iran’s advanced weapons program. They said they used other spying activities to identify what US-made supplies the Iranians needed, and then plugged the names of those components and their manufacturers into the 702 databases.

Despite US restrictive measures, more and more controls are falling away as Iran is eying even further market for its cheap drones and missiles. Last month, the UN sent letters to countries announcing the end of bans on Iran's missile program, removing barriers for the clerical regime to sell dangerous technologies. Iran, historically allied with Russia, faces accusations of supplying lethal drones to Moscow for use in Ukraine, though it asserts its neutrality in the conflict. Iran is now free to sell its drones, ballistic missiles, and related long-range strike technologies to its anti-Western partners and clients and can also procure technology for further development.