Iranian MP Says US Warned Regime Off Hamas War On Israel

Reza Rasaei was handed the death penalty by the second branch of the Kermanshah Province Criminal Court on Friday. He was accused of the murder of Nader Beirami, head of the Intelligence of the Revolutionary Guards in Sanandaj, during a violent protest last November.

According to Dadban, a group of pro-bono lawyers in Iran dedicated to defending political prisoners and rights activists, Beirami was killed following a clash between security and law enforcement forces and protesters.

Approximately one week after the incident, Rasaei and ten other citizens were arrested on charges of participating in the assault and injury of Beirami solely for their presence at the protest.

Security authorities attributed Beirami's murder to Rasaei without any evidence, witnesses, or documents, as reported by various human rights organizations including Dadban and Hengaw.

The spokesperson for the judiciary of the Islamic Republic had previously announced that 52 individuals had been arrested in connection with Beirami's murder.

The Yarsan faith, also known as Ahl-e Haqq, is one of the oldest Middle Eastern religious traditions with about three million followers in Iran, primarily in western Kurdish areas, and 120,000 to 150,000 in Iraq known as Kaka'i.

Yarsan adherents have encountered challenges, including the inability to register their children as Yarsan at birth, restrictions on building places of worship, and the fear of persecution for printing their holy book.

President Ebrahim Raisi held a telephone call with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar. The two sides praised bilateral ties and discussed what the situation of Gaza, where Israel is preparing a ground offensive.

While the Iranian president accused Israel of genocide and condemned the United States for rendering support to the Jewish state, the Qatari Emir emphasized that without the realization of Palestinian rights there would be no stability in the region.

Iran foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian arrived in Qatar, after a regional tour of Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. He held talks with Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani.

A video on social media also showed the Iranian foreign minister meeting Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Qatar.

Qatar’s official news agency reported that Sheikh Jasem al Thani “stressed, during the meeting, the necessity of working towards an immediate ceasefire, protecting civilians and releasing prisoners, and the danger of the expansion of violence and the cycle of conflict in the region, which will have dire consequences if it expands.

The Iranian and Qatari official media did not provide more information about the details of discussion between the top leaders and chief diplomats of the two countries. Amir-Abdollahian earlier in Lebanon threatened that Iran’s proxy forces are ready to join the conflict.

It should be noted that due to European sanctions, Russia faced serious challenges in selling natural gas. Simultaneously, during the three-day visit of Iran's Minister of Petroleum, Javad Owji, to Moscow this week to participate in the "Russian Energy Week" summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin, stated that "Tehran is in negotiations with Moscow to purchase gas.”

Previously, the agreement for Iran to purchase gas from Russia, along with several other agreements on developing oil and gas fields, constructing liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants, and investments in other energy sectors, was signed during the visit of a Gazprom delegation to Iran in July 2022. 

While Iran proudly announced the signing of the "largest oil and gas agreements in the country's history worth $40 billion," Russia has not converted any of these memorandum of understandings (MoUs) into contracts and is now only negotiating the sale of gas to Iran.

About a decade ago, Iran also signed dozens of oil and gas MoUs with various Russian companies, none of which were executed. 

Russia can potentially export 12 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually to Iran via the Russia-Turkmenistan gas pipeline, which extends from the Turkmen Dowlatabad gas field on the border with Iran to Sarakhs-Khangiran. 

Another older pipeline with an annual transfer capacity of 8 bcm/y of gas from Turkmenistan to Iran exists, but it is not connected to the Russia-Turkmenistan gas pipeline. However, Russia can use this pipeline to deliver additional gas to Turkmenistan and Iran can take Turkmen gas through swap. 

Iran is currently facing a substantial gas shortage during the winter, and this gas can be used to offset domestic shortfalls and fulfill its gas export commitments to Iraq and Turkey.

Iran’s dreams and Russia’s financial problems

Iran's hope lies in investments from Russia's Gazprom, despite the company's official financial report indicating that its revenues in the first half of 2023 was only 296 billion rubles (approximately $3.1 billion), which is 8.4 times less than the same period last year. This figure also represents nearly one-third of the company's gas sales income in the first halves of previous years before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Furthermore, Gazprom's debts have risen from 5 trillion rubles in July 2022 to 6 trillion rubles in July of this year, equivalent to $61 billion. 

Additionally, Russia's total income from oil and gas exports in the first half of this year has dropped by 47% compared to the same period last year, reaching just over $37 billion. In this context, Iran's expectation for Gazprom or the Russian government to invest in the country's oil and gas fields seems unusual. 

Moreover, some of the MoUs signed between Gazprom and Iran in July last year relate to projects for which Russia lacks the required technology. These projects include the pressurization of the South Pars gas field, involving the construction and installation of 20,000-ton platforms and large compressors as well as LNG facilities. Russia's own semi-finished LNG projects have been halted after foreign companies withdrew due to Western sanctions.

On the other hand, Iran is a potential rival for Russia in global oil and gas markets. Following Russia, Iran possesses the world's second-largest gas reserves, and its oil reserves surpass Russia's by as much as 30%.

Imports of Petroleum Products

Iran, which has been facing gasoline and diesel shortages since the summer of last year, has begun importing these petroleum products from Russia since March 2023. 

Iranian oil minister claimed on October 13 that the country has implemented the second phase of the Abadan refinery with a capacity of 210,000 barrels and operated the Isfahan refinery's diesel unit with a daily capacity of 20 million liters over the past few months.

Despite this claim, the diesel purification unit at Isfahan refinery, operating since March 2023 is aimed to reduce sulfur content, not additional diesel production. 

According to an Iranian Oil Ministry’s official report, obtained by Iran International, the country's diesel production in April and May of this year not only did not show growth but it decreased by 1.2% compared to the same period last year, reaching 108 million liters per day.

On the other hand, contrary to Javad Owji’s claim, the data from the report shows that the government has set a daily crude oil refining target of 370,000 barrels for the Abadan refinery for the current year, which does not represent an increase compared to the previous year. The Abadan refinery, an ancient facility with over a century of history, is Iran's largest crude oil refinery, which, the report says converts 47% of the received crude oil into highly polluting fuel oil and bitumen.

Iranian efforts to work with Russia on energy issues create a complicated situation that needs serious examination. The history of unfulfilled agreements between the two countries highlights the difficulties and ambiguities that such partnerships confront. Although the latest Russian announcement of gas deliveries to Iran is interesting, it is important to remember the previous difficulties with agreement implementation. The discrepancy between Iran's fervent declarations and Russia's hesitation to turn memoranda into contracts points to a persistent problem.

A workable solution to Iran's acute gas deficit is the ability for Russia to transfer gas through already-existing pipelines. Iran's present domestic gas scarcity is a serious issue that must be addressed, especially during the winter. 

According to an another official report, prepared by Iran’s National Petrochemical Company, obtained by Iran International, the country’s petrochemical plants worked with 70% of their capacity during last year, due to shortage of natural gas. 

To meet Iran's energy demands and fulfill its international gas export responsibilities, it may be possible to obtain more gas from Russia, either directly or through gas swaps with Turkmenistan. 

In conclusion, overcoming challenges and resolving unfulfilled commitments from the past is necessary to realize Iran's aspirations for an energy partnership with Russia. Success depends on converting intentions into concrete agreements that are in line with Iran's larger energy and economic objectives, including resolving gas shortages. Iran must carefully weigh the complications and unknowns associated with Russia's energy cooperation.

Contributors:

1. Ilham Shaban, director of the Caspian Oil Studies Center in the Republic of Azerbaijan
2. Dr Umud Shokri, Energy Strategist
3. Dalga Khatinoglu, expert on Iran energy issues

In a meeting with Sheikh Ibrahim Yaqoub El Zakzaky, Khamenei told him: “The Islamic Movement is expanding in Africa, Europe and North America,” rallying the world's Shiite population.

Zakzaky leads the Islamic Movement in Nigeria, a movement inspired by the Iranian Revolution that rejects Nigerian government authority. Known as Nigeria's Ayatollah, the outspoken cleric has been imprisoned for a range of charges including murder, culpable homicide, unlawful assembly and disruption of public peace as the government tries to quash the revolutionary movement.

“I hope you will be able to continue your fight,” said Khamenei, who backs Zakzaky's campaign to expand Shiite Islam in Nigeria where while around 50 percent of the country is Muslim, the majority is Sunni.

While Iran supports Nigeria's Islamic Movement, the regime also needs the support of the Nigerian government, last months energy talks discussing cooperation to combat energy challenges.

During the meeting of the two religious leaders, Khamenei raised the rally cry of the Palestinians as its proxy Hamas continues its war against Israel after an unprecedented and surprise attack on Saturday became the single most deadly day for Jews since the Holocaust.

“Everyone in the Islamic world has a duty to assist the Palestinians,” Khamenei said. Iran funds Hamas with around $100m a year in addition to military support and training but while Israeli officials accuse the Iranian regime of funding Hamas's surprise assault, Tehran denies involvement.

According to the IDF, Ali Qadhi, a company commander, was targeted in a drone strike, following intelligence coordination between the Shin Bet security agency and Military Intelligence Directorate. Qadhi had a history with Israel, having been arrested in 2005 for the abduction and murder of Israeli civilians. He had been released to the Gaza Strip as part of the 2011 Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange.

The airstrikes primarily focused on militants from the "Nukhba" branch of Hamas, identified by the IDF as a significant force behind the recent infiltration into Israel. The IDF statement highlighted that their operations had also struck the operational headquarters of Hamas responsible for aerial activities and resulted in the elimination of Merad Abu Merad, the head of the Hamas Aerial System in Gaza City.

The conflict between Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Israel began a week ago when Hamas initiated a surprise offensive on Israeli communities and cities along the southern border, killing well over 1,000 civilians and the abduction of more than 100 others.

Reports from Israeli media on Saturday morning indicated that the Israeli army had conducted raids in West Bank territories controlled by the Palestinian Authority, leading to the arrest of several senior Hamas leaders. The IDF has yet to officially confirm this development.