Advocate Of ‘Maximum Pressure’ On Iran Chairs Key Senate Committee
Democratic Senator Ben Cardin has assumed the chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at a time of heightened debate over US Iran policy.
Democratic Senator Ben Cardin has assumed the chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at a time of heightened debate over US Iran policy.
Sen. Cardin said on Thursday that the US is in a “much more dangerous situation” now because Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, although he opposed it at the time.
“From what I’ve been told,” he said, “Iran is just not interested” in a deal. “You’ve got to figure out, where do you go from this day forward?”
Cardin was one of only four Democrats in the Senate to have opposed the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. He argued that it allowed the regime in Tehran to get “too close” to nuclear weapons “under a legal path.”
He became less skeptical, however, after the IAEA confirmed in periodic reports that Iran was in compliance.
The Maryland Senator has taken over the influential Foreign Relations Committee at a critical time for Iran policy. The Biden administration has been in secret talks with the Islamic Republic for some time and many in Washington believe an informal deal looms on the horizon.
Cardin’s view of such a deal would carry weight (and procedural significance) on the Capitol. It’s hard to gauge his view, though, as he seems to have made few substantive comments on the issue.
In 2015, Cardin had a key role in helping President Obama to get his nuclear deal through congress, despite voting against the deal himself. Working closely with the Republican Senator Bob Corker, then Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, Cardin managed to get a bipartisan deal to give Congress the power to review the administration’s agreement. The law is called the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA) and was a escape hatch for Congress in face of former President Barack Obama’s decision not to make the JCPOA a treaty, subject to Senate approval.
Interestingly enough, back then like right now, Cardin replaced Bob Menendez after the US Department of Justice indicted Menendez on federal corruption charges.
Cardin is widely believed to be less hawkish than Menendez. Still, he has advocated “maximum pressure on Iran’ as a means to get another agreement after Trump unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 deal.
“The only way to permanently deal with [Iran's nuclear program] is an agreement,” he said in December 2021. “The only way you can get there is through Maximum Pressure on Iran. Maximum Pressure on Iran."
Cardin was one of the two sponsors of a legislation (with the Republican Senator Pat Toomey) that proposed more sanctions for Iran over an alleged plot to kidnap the dissident journalist Masih Alinejad from the US.
Some Iranian-American activists have already started to lobby Cardin to back the MAHSA Act, which targets the offices of the President and the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, and which passed the House on September 12, 2023.
It is likely that Cardin supports the MAHSA Act, not least because human rights seem to hold a special place in his priorities. He was vocal last year when Mahsa Amini was killed in police custody in Tehran and did commemorate her death and the widespread protests that followed on their first anniversary this September.
What is not so clear is his stance on more controversial, Iran-related matters like the recent Iranian ‘influence scandal’ or a potential, limited deal with the Islamic Republic. Although he is known to be loyal to his party’s line, still he did vote no to the nuclear deal in 2015.
Senator Cardin will have a shorter-than-usual term as the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee because his term expires in January 2025, and he has announced that he will not seek reelection.
Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, are set to meet on October 4. The panel, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, can call for a full OPEC+ meeting if warranted.
Four OPEC+ sources who declined to be named told Reuters that the committee would probably not make any changes to existing policy during Wednesday's meeting as tighter supplies and rising demand drive an oil price rally. Global crude oil prices rose about 30% in the quarter as OPEC+ production cuts squeezed supplies.
Oil has jumped towards $100 a barrel for Brent crude, the highest since 2022, over OPEC+ policy of output cuts and rising demand. The rise of about $30 for each barrel can bring about a handsome boost to Iran’s struggling economy, despite the significant discounts Tehran provides to buyers while the Biden administration has notably relaxed the enforcement of US sanctions.
The rise can potentially increase Iran’s annual revenues by more than $10 billion annually, given that fact that the country exported close to two million barrels of crude per day in July-August.
With oil rallying, some analysts have cited an increasing probability the Saudi voluntary cuts will be reduced. There are also speculations that the curbs to be extended into 2024. The Saudi and Russian cuts are on top of earlier curbs announced since late 2022 and expected to dominate oil prices for the remainder of this year. The next full OPEC+ meeting is not until November.
There is "increasing probability the voluntary supply cuts by Aramco are reduced," Reuters cited National Australia Bank analysts, referring to Saudi Arabia's state oil producer.
Foreign sources monitoring Iran’s oil shipments estimated in August that daily exports reached close to two million barrels per day, after climbing to above one million in 2022 and 1.5 million earlier this year. A Reuters survey published August 31 showed that OPEC’s oil output rose in August as Iranian supply jumped to its highest since 2018, despite ongoing cuts by OPEC+ alliance to support the market.
SVB International, a consultant, estimates Iran's oil production increased in August to 3.15 million barrels per day (bpd), with crude oil and condensate exports stood at just under 2 million bpd. "Iran is on the path to recover its pre-sanctions oil production," said SVB's Sara Vakhshouri.
With the discounts Iran is offering to China, its main customer, it was probably earning just under $30 billion annually earlier this year. But with more shipments and higher prices, the income can climb to above $40 billion. However, it is not clear how much it receives in cash and how much is bartered for essential imports.
Since the United States exited the JCPOA nuclear accord and imposed the sanctions in 2018, Iran has been selling its oil by clandestine methods to China. Export volumes and prices are a state secret, and all figures are estimates by industry observers and occasional bits and pieces of information from government officials.
“US officials privately acknowledge they’ve gradually relaxed some enforcement of sanctions on Iranian oil sales,” Bloomberg News revealed last month. The monetary impact of these sanctions relief measures can be determined by approximating the rise in Iranian exports resulting from reduced enforcement and subsequently projecting the added value of these increased sales.
According to US-based think-tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), “Depending on the discount Iran offered to incentivize purchases from a sanctioned government, the estimated value of Tehran’s additional oil sales — the difference between its realized revenue and what it would have earned if its exports remained at the maximum pressure period’s average level — was $26.3 to $29.5 billion, a number that will continue growing while enforcement remains lax.”
Iran International and Semafor this week simultaneously published similar versions of the report, shedding light on the Islamic Republic's influence network (IEI) within the United States and Western decision-making circles. The report garnered significant attention in the German media landscape. Notable publications such as Die Welt, Berliner Zeitung, Bild, and Taz have extensively covered this revelation.
Die Welt, in an article titled "A trace of the Iran network also leads to Berlin," emphasized the sensitivity of the publication’s timing and raised questions about the inclusion of a German name within the report. The publication expressed surprise at the lack of coverage by major American newspapers, including The Washington Post and The New York Times, regarding this crucial and sensitive matter.
Die Welt referring to an email sent by Adnan Tabatabai to Iranian former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, in which Tabatabai offers that members IEI (Iran Experts Initiative) could write articles to be published under the names of current or former Iranian officials potentially using false authorship, to promote Iran’s views in the West.
Die Welt's perspective underscores the uniqueness of this situation, noting that among the experts mentioned in the Iran International report, only Adnan Tabatabai disputes the authenticity of the disclosed documents. Regardless of the material's authenticity, the article raises questions about the boundaries between independent experts and their areas of expertise. It emphasizes that IEI members in this context have openly advocated for a diplomatic approach in negotiations with Iran, while emphasizing the importance of maintaining independence within their respective fields of expertise.
Berliner Zeitung has raised the possibility that one of Germany’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs partners, Adnan Tabatabai, may have acted as a "Ghost writer" for the Iranian authorities within Germany. This revelation has the potential to be a critical situation for FM Analena Baerbock.
There are suspicions that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs may have also provided support to a think tank closely aligned with the Iranian government.
According to Berliner Zeitung, Adnan Tabatabai has made multiple public appearances alongside Analena Baerbock in the past, and his think tank, Carpo, has received significant funding from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Over one million euros of public tax funds have been allocated to Carpo as a partner of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for various dialogue projects. Adnan Tabatabai serves as the CEO of Carpo.
The discussion surrounding this issue has also been extensively covered by Taz and Bild. Bild, published a photo of Adnan Tabatabai alongside German Foreign Minister Baerbock, raising questions about potential ties to Iranian intelligence. The article implies that Tabatabai’s interactions with the federal foreign minister go beyond mere support for Iran's authoritarian regime.
Furthermore, Bild highlights a serious suspicion that Adnan Tabatabai actively engaged with the Iranian regime to promote public relations for Iran’s nuclear program. The leaked emails provide insights into how the Iranian regime utilized initiatives to influence the foreign policies of Western nations, with some experts reportedly obtaining government positions in the United States.
Despite being the sole individual vehemently denying the contents of the Iran International report, Adnan Tabatabai has repeatedly defended and whitewashed the Islamist regime in the media in recent years.
Die Welt claims that the German MFA has not answered its questions about Adnan Tabatabai, raising more questions about the extent of IEI's influence on the relationship between the United States and Iran.
However, the German MFA sent a short reply to the Berliner Zeitung, stating, “Previous project funding never resulted in privileged, exclusive, or advisory access to the Foreign Ministry.” In a recent interview with Die Welt, Tabatabai reported on his "exchange of content with employees of Germany MFA," based on current developments and conducted in person.