Iranian Hardline Cleric Says Khamenei Should Not Be Accountable

Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, are set to meet on October 4. The panel, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, can call for a full OPEC+ meeting if warranted.

Four OPEC+ sources who declined to be named told Reuters that the committee would probably not make any changes to existing policy during Wednesday's meeting as tighter supplies and rising demand drive an oil price rally. Global crude oil prices rose about 30% in the quarter as OPEC+ production cuts squeezed supplies.

Oil has jumped towards $100 a barrel for Brent crude, the highest since 2022, over OPEC+ policy of output cuts and rising demand. The rise of about $30 for each barrel can bring about a handsome boost to Iran’s struggling economy, despite the significant discounts Tehran provides to buyers while the Biden administration has notably relaxed the enforcement of US sanctions. 

The rise can potentially increase Iran’s annual revenues by more than $10 billion annually, given that fact that the country exported close to two million barrels of crude per day in July-August.

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With oil rallying, some analysts have cited an increasing probability the Saudi voluntary cuts will be reduced. There are also speculations that the curbs to be extended into 2024. The Saudi and Russian cuts are on top of earlier curbs announced since late 2022 and expected to dominate oil prices for the remainder of this year. The next full OPEC+ meeting is not until November.

There is "increasing probability the voluntary supply cuts by Aramco are reduced," Reuters cited National Australia Bank analysts, referring to Saudi Arabia's state oil producer.

Foreign sources monitoring Iran’s oil shipments estimated in August that daily exports reached close to two million barrels per day, after climbing to above one million in 2022 and 1.5 million earlier this year. A Reuters survey published August 31 showed that OPEC’s oil output rose in August as Iranian supply jumped to its highest since 2018, despite ongoing cuts by OPEC+ alliance to support the market.

SVB International, a consultant, estimates Iran's oil production increased in August to 3.15 million barrels per day (bpd), with crude oil and condensate exports stood at just under 2 million bpd. "Iran is on the path to recover its pre-sanctions oil production," said SVB's Sara Vakhshouri.

With the discounts Iran is offering to China, its main customer, it was probably earning just under $30 billion annually earlier this year. But with more shipments and higher prices, the income can climb to above $40 billion. However, it is not clear how much it receives in cash and how much is bartered for essential imports.

Since the United States exited the JCPOA nuclear accord and imposed the sanctions in 2018, Iran has been selling its oil by clandestine methods to China. Export volumes and prices are a state secret, and all figures are estimates by industry observers and occasional bits and pieces of information from government officials.

“US officials privately acknowledge they’ve gradually relaxed some enforcement of sanctions on Iranian oil sales,” Bloomberg News revealed last month. The monetary impact of these sanctions relief measures can be determined by approximating the rise in Iranian exports resulting from reduced enforcement and subsequently projecting the added value of these increased sales.

According to US-based think-tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), “Depending on the discount Iran offered to incentivize purchases from a sanctioned government, the estimated value of Tehran’s additional oil sales — the difference between its realized revenue and what it would have earned if its exports remained at the maximum pressure period’s average level — was $26.3 to $29.5 billion, a number that will continue growing while enforcement remains lax.”

The 2023 shortlist features the names of Narges Mohammadi and an Afghan activist Mahbouba Seraj.

Narges Mohammadi is a prominent Iranian human rights activist and journalist who has been a fervent advocate for women's rights and the abolition of the death penalty. She has faced multiple incarcerations in Iran and is currently serving a lengthy prison sentence on charges that include disseminating “propaganda against the state.” Her imprisonment has garnered international condemnation.

Henrik Urdal, the director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO, remarked, "History has shown us that respect for human rights is intrinsically linked to peaceful societies. The non-violent struggle for human rights is therefore a valuable contribution to peace and stability, and an advancement of the 'fellowship among nations' as stipulated by Alfred Nobel in his will. As this year marks the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, my Nobel shortlist reflects a timely and worthy focus on human rights defenders and activists."

Mahbouba Seraj is a prominent Afghan journalist and women's rights activist. After spending 26 years in exile, she returned to Afghanistan in 2003 and is currently based in Kabul. Seraj is a staunch advocate for children's health and education, anti-corruption efforts, and the empowerment of survivors of domestic abuse.

The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee to individuals or organizations for their exceptional contributions to the promotion of peace.

The announcement was made by Iraq's Interior Minister Abdul Amir al-Shammari in an interview with Al-Arabiya on Saturday.

The Iraqi Prime Minister also emphasized on Saturday that the border with Iran in the Kurdistan region is entirely under the control of Iraqi forces.

Earlier, Iran International had reported that based on the security agreement between Iran and Iraq, many headquarters of Kurdish opposition parties to the Islamic Republic in the Kurdistan region of Iraq have been evacuated.

The headquarters have been detonated by the parties' own forces. According to the informed individuals, the forces that were stationed in border headquarters have now gone to the Iraqi border guard bases and are supposed to be transferred to camps under the supervision of the United Nations.

Local media in the Kurdistan region of Iraq have reported on the permanent deployment of Iraqi border guard forces in these areas and the raising of the Iraqi flag in the locations where the evacuated headquarters of anti-Islamic Republic parties were. The reports also mention the use of thermal cameras by the Iraqi border guard forces to monitor the areas.

The Islamic Republic has long accused the Kurdistan Autonomous Region of Iraq of providing shelter to its opposition groups and claims that the parties use the soil of the Kurdistan Region and Iraq to threaten the security of the Islamic Republic. The Kurdish groups have repeatedly denied the allegations.

In recent years, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has launched missile and artillery attacks on the bases of Kurdish opposition groups multiple times.

The Pentagon's report stated, “North Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations remain persistent threats as they continue to further pursue and develop WMD.”

Regarding Iran, the report indicated, “It is assessed that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program at this time but has the capacity to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear device in less than two weeks.”

Additionally, the report acknowledged Russia as an "acute threat" and identified China as a "pacing challenge."

“The PRC (People's Republic of China) has expanded and modernized nearly every aspect of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), with a focus on offsetting US military advantages,” added the report.

Additionally, it emphasized that China presents the "most comprehensive and urgent challenge" to the United States.

Regarding Russia, the report noted, "Russia poses the most acute nuclear, biological, and chemical threat in the near-term and will continue to retain WMD capabilities in the medium and long term."

The document expressed concerns about Russia's lack of transparency concerning its former Soviet program and its continued secrecy surrounding potentially dual-use biological research.

In the section on North Korea, the report mentioned, “Capability developments provide the DPRK with options for nuclear weapons use at any stage of conflict.”

The Islamic Republic claims it is not pursuing the development of nuclear weapons, but Western countries and Israel say that Iran's nuclear program, especially the enrichment of 60% uranium and the production of metallic uranium in Iran, has no connection to peaceful nuclear knowledge applications.

The official in question is ArianeTabatabaei who serves as chief of staff for the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict, a senior position with top-secret security clearance.

Earlier this week, Iran International and Semafor reported that Tabatabaei had been a major actor in an information operation initiated by the Iranian foreign ministry to mollify the regime’s image and promote its positions internationally.

The revelation shocked many in Washington. Republican lawmakers demanded explanations. The Pentagon first defended the official but then confirmed Thursday that the matter had to be –and indeed was– being investigated.

Friday afternoon, it emerged that a coalition of Republican Senators, including ranking members from Intelligence, Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, had sent a letter to the Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to call for immediate action to ensure that his Department was not “compromised.”

“We urge you to suspend Ms Tabatabaei’s security clearance immediately pending further review, as the State Department did with her former supervisor, Robert Malley.”

Malley was the Biden administration’s special envoy to Iran, playing an instrumental role in the nuclear negotiations and in forming overall US policy towards the regime in Tehran. He is now being investigated by the FBI for mishandling classified material.

It’s not clear if Malley’s suspension is related to the Iranian influence operation, the now-infamous Iran Expert Initiative described in Iran International’s investigative report. By mentioning his name in their letter, however, the senators have hinted that they think the two cases may be linked –and betray a chronic problem in the administration’s Iran policy.

“In March 2021,” the senators note, “shortly after Ms. Tabatabai was appointed senior adviser in the Office of the Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, Iranian dissidents noted Ms. Tabatabai's long history of echoing the Iranian regime's talking points. In April 2021, several House members requested a review of Ms. Tabatabai's security clearance. In response, the Biden administration dismissed these allegations as smears and slander.”

The senators then write: “the latest allegations… indicate that Ms. Tabatabai may have been engaged in a relationship with the Iranian regime well beyond what even her strongest critics alleged.”

Tabatabaei has been heavily criticized by many users on Persian social media for her comments on the nuclear issue, popular protests in Iran, and the downing of the Ukrainian passenger flight PS752 by the IRGC.

The critics have always maintained that her views –and the views of a few other Iranian ‘experts’ outside Iran, are often indistinguishable from the official line trumpeted by the regime. They have all been accused by regime critics of colluding with the Islamic Republic and whitewashing its crimes. Those accused, however, flatly dismiss the accusations as ‘smear’, ‘slander’ and often ‘misogyny.’

This is the first time that a report substantiates the claims of close, longstanding and lopsided relationship between the Islamic Republic and a loose network of activists, academics and journalists living abroad.

“We find it simply unconscionable that a senior Department official would continue to hold a sensitive position despite her alleged participation in an Iranian government information operation,” reads the Senate letter to the Defense Secretary Austin.

Several American officials, as well as a few Iranian activists outside Iran, have come out in defense of Tabatabaei and her work. Interestingly, the Iranian government has so far remained silent about the affair.