Four-Member Taliban Delegation Arrives In Tehran To Attend Conference
Following months of heated disputes between the Islamic Republic and the Taliban concerning water rights, a four-member Taliban delegation has recently travelled to Iran.
Following months of heated disputes between the Islamic Republic and the Taliban concerning water rights, a four-member Taliban delegation has recently travelled to Iran.
The delegation's purpose is to take part in the 37th International Islamic Unity Conference, as reported by Iran's state news agency, IRNA, citing the Islamic Republic's Embassy in Kabul.
In May, a clash between Iranian border guards and the Afghan Taliban resulted in the deaths of at least two Iranians and one Taliban soldier. According to a report in the Iranian reformist daily newspaper Ham-Mihan, approximately 50 Iranians have lost their lives in border skirmishes with the Taliban since 2021.
Despite Iran's official non-recognition of the Taliban government, several delegations from the Taliban have made trips to Iran following their assumption of power in Afghanistan. In June 2022, Taliban representatives visited Tehran to participate in a border commission summit between Tehran and Kabul.
The Taliban move to cut off Helmand River's water flow from Afghanistan has had dire consequences for the inhabitants of the southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchestan. Wetlands in Sistan have transformed into salt flats, the once-thriving wildlife has vanished, and many local villages have been deserted.
Firebrand Iranian cleric Ahmad Khatami, a member of the presidium of the Assembly of Experts, made this assertion during the assembly's annual meeting. However, the Constitution's Article 111 clearly grants the Assembly of Experts the authority to supervise and even remove the Supreme Leader if he is deemed "incapable of fulfilling his responsibilities as leader." Observers have called Khatami's statement unprecedented and against the Constitution.
Meanwhile, a video clip from the 1980s showed Assembly of Experts Chairman Ahmad Jannati advocating for limiting Khamenei's powers and supervising his behavior and performance. Jannati argued that such limitations were necessary to prevent chaos and distrust among the nation. Khatami, on the other hand, claimed that the law only required Assembly members to ensure that the Supreme Leader remained consistently capable of leading the nation.
There have been disputes over the past 30 years about what exactly the Constitutional Law says about the Assembly's role, but Khatami's unprecedented attempt to do away with the AoE's supervisory role, was an elaborate act to please Khamenei.
Obviously, no one at the Assembly meeting was brave enough to tell Khatami that he was wrong, and the leader's performance needed to be supervised by the Assembly. However, the institution has been so weakened by Khamenei during the past decades that instead of controlling Khamenei, its members have been turned into Khamenei's inferior employees whose only function is to praise him twice a year during their rare meetings while most of its elderly members are seen dozing off.
Khatami claimed that some of the AoE members wish to find faults in Khamenei's performance. This was perceived as another way of intimidating other members.
A scholarly article in the Koranic Studies Journal stated in 2012 that although the word supervision has not been used in article 111 of the constitution, what the article calls for cannot be done by any means other than supervising the leader's performance and behavior.
Iranian analyst Mehdi Mahdavi Azad recalled in an interview with Iran International that while the Assembly initially was debating limiting Khamenei’s powers, Khamenei himself was in favor of the limitations. At that time in 1989, Khamenei at times aligned with reformist politicians either genuinely, or to garner their support. Mahdavi Azad said that Ahmad Khatami probably was backed by other radicals at the Assembly of Experts on Wednesday. However, Khamenei said once again during a meeting with students in 2000 that he was in favor of Assembly of Experts' supervision of his performance.
Since late 2000s, however, Khamenei gradually changed from a hardline cleric to a dictator who treated even his close friends such as former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani ruthlessly.
Another Iranian analyst, Morteza Kazemian told Iran International that “The six clerics appointed by Khamenei to the Guardian council were handpick radicals. During the past way, Khamenei has changed the Assembly's combination to serve his own interests."
Kazemian quoted Ahmad Khatami as having said after an AoE meeting with Khamenei in 2006 that he was against the Assembly’s supervision of his performance although according to Khatami, a majority of the Assembly's member believed there should be checks and balances on Khamenei and his financial conglomerate which holds a large part of the country's assets.
Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, are set to meet on October 4. The panel, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, can call for a full OPEC+ meeting if warranted.
Four OPEC+ sources who declined to be named told Reuters that the committee would probably not make any changes to existing policy during Wednesday's meeting as tighter supplies and rising demand drive an oil price rally. Global crude oil prices rose about 30% in the quarter as OPEC+ production cuts squeezed supplies.
Oil has jumped towards $100 a barrel for Brent crude, the highest since 2022, over OPEC+ policy of output cuts and rising demand. The rise of about $30 for each barrel can bring about a handsome boost to Iran’s struggling economy, despite the significant discounts Tehran provides to buyers while the Biden administration has notably relaxed the enforcement of US sanctions.
The rise can potentially increase Iran’s annual revenues by more than $10 billion annually, given that fact that the country exported close to two million barrels of crude per day in July-August.
With oil rallying, some analysts have cited an increasing probability the Saudi voluntary cuts will be reduced. There are also speculations that the curbs to be extended into 2024. The Saudi and Russian cuts are on top of earlier curbs announced since late 2022 and expected to dominate oil prices for the remainder of this year. The next full OPEC+ meeting is not until November.
There is "increasing probability the voluntary supply cuts by Aramco are reduced," Reuters cited National Australia Bank analysts, referring to Saudi Arabia's state oil producer.
Foreign sources monitoring Iran’s oil shipments estimated in August that daily exports reached close to two million barrels per day, after climbing to above one million in 2022 and 1.5 million earlier this year. A Reuters survey published August 31 showed that OPEC’s oil output rose in August as Iranian supply jumped to its highest since 2018, despite ongoing cuts by OPEC+ alliance to support the market.
SVB International, a consultant, estimates Iran's oil production increased in August to 3.15 million barrels per day (bpd), with crude oil and condensate exports stood at just under 2 million bpd. "Iran is on the path to recover its pre-sanctions oil production," said SVB's Sara Vakhshouri.
With the discounts Iran is offering to China, its main customer, it was probably earning just under $30 billion annually earlier this year. But with more shipments and higher prices, the income can climb to above $40 billion. However, it is not clear how much it receives in cash and how much is bartered for essential imports.
Since the United States exited the JCPOA nuclear accord and imposed the sanctions in 2018, Iran has been selling its oil by clandestine methods to China. Export volumes and prices are a state secret, and all figures are estimates by industry observers and occasional bits and pieces of information from government officials.
“US officials privately acknowledge they’ve gradually relaxed some enforcement of sanctions on Iranian oil sales,” Bloomberg News revealed last month. The monetary impact of these sanctions relief measures can be determined by approximating the rise in Iranian exports resulting from reduced enforcement and subsequently projecting the added value of these increased sales.
According to US-based think-tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), “Depending on the discount Iran offered to incentivize purchases from a sanctioned government, the estimated value of Tehran’s additional oil sales — the difference between its realized revenue and what it would have earned if its exports remained at the maximum pressure period’s average level — was $26.3 to $29.5 billion, a number that will continue growing while enforcement remains lax.”
