Bromance Fading: Is Tehran Bazaar Shifting Stance On Regime Support?
Tehran’s Grand Bazaar has always supported the regime, but recent remarks from officials about its relocation hint at a possible shift in sentiment among the merchants.
Tehran’s Grand Bazaar has always supported the regime, but recent remarks from officials about its relocation hint at a possible shift in sentiment among the merchants.
Relocation is currently being deliberated at Iran’s crisis management headquarters by high-profile figures, including Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi as well as some Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) commanders, according to Tehran Governor Alireza Fakhari.
The Grand Bazaar of the capital played a key role in funding the 1979 Revolution, which reciprocated by allocating crucial positions in the government to certain Bazaar merchants, such as former Commerce Minister Habibollah Asgaroladi, Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rafiqdoust, and former prosecutor Asadollah Lajevardi, also known as "the butcher of Evin Prison" assassinated at his shop in the Bazaar in 1998.
Since then, the overtly close ties between the regime and the Bazaar have been apparent, but conflicting comments from some regime officials about relocating the premises indicate that the alliance may be unraveling.
With the September 16 anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death at the hands of morality police approaching, Abolfazl Shekarchi, a deputy at the general staff of the armed forces, described Bazaaris on Saturday as the “officers of economic war,” urging them not to participate in strikes that could potentially erupt alongside possible nationwide protests.
The Bazaar's countless narrow arcades and passageways create a labyrinth that poses a challenge for security forces to manage in the event of a massive protest scenario. Situated in downtown Tehran, the Bazaar holds a strategic location not far from important governmental sites, and a large demonstration could easily spill into the rest of the city, endangering critical locations. Relocating the Bazaar might potentially disperse the concentration of various Bazaari factions and hinder a coordinated anti-government strike.
Advocates of relocation, such as Fakhari, primarily argue that safety concerns make relocation essential. Another supporter of relocation is city council member Ahmad Sadeghi, who recently stated that the Bazaar “cannot be secured and must be relocated.”
By invoking the "public safety" rationale, these officials present a relatively logical justification to dismiss the notion that the Bazaar's direction might be changing, particularly in light of recent incidents of fires breaking out in the 110-hectare marketplace. They also contend that the dilapidated infrastructure is suboptimal for commercial activities.
However, opponents of relocation cite the intricate ownership issues within the marketplace, which is partially owned by a large-scale, quasi-governmental charity organization. Mahdi Chamran, a city council member, has unequivocally stated that “the Bazaar is not relocatable,” while Ahmad Alavi, the council’s tourism committee chairman, has asserted that the premises are no longer at risk due to existing security measures.
Alavi outright rejected the proposal, deeming it a "complex and grand project, unlikely to yield any results.” He described relocation as an “impossible thing” lying "outside the jurisdiction of the city or any single organization." The reasons for some officials' opposition to relocation are unclear, but it's possible they are not receiving a fair share of profits that officials generate from such projects or that they have hidden interests.
A source in Tehran Grand Bazaar, whom we'll refer to as Kian to protect his identity, informed Iran International that officials are “not even capable of relocating” the marketplace, even if they intended to. He cited the regime's failure to rebuild the Plasco Building since January 2017, when the 20-story high-rise in central Tehran collapsed following a massive fire.
Kian, who owns a shop in the heart of the Bazaar, also points out the "astronomical prices" of shops and the ambiguity surrounding ownership in some cases, claiming that relocation could “cause chaos” in the entire Iranian market.
He also confirms that dissent has escalated among Bazaaris as they find it increasingly challenging to conduct business in the current political climate, particularly in the aftermath of the Women, Life, Freedom movement.
The Tehran Grand Bazaar seems to have gradually shifted toward political dissent since the 2017 protests, with shopkeepers and their staff participating in outbreaks of demonstrations and strikes that continue to this day.
While the exact strategies employed by officials to gain control over the Bazaar are not entirely clear, the Tehran mayor appears to be projecting an image of unity by adopting a middle ground. Alireza Zakani recently remarked that the consideration of transferring the marketplace "to another location in the city" is just that – a consideration – implying that it might not necessarily come to fruition.
Whether the regime decides to relocate the Bazaar or successfully executes such a plan, the ongoing discussion around this issue serves as a clear indicator of growing dissent within a historically influential political group that played a pivotal role in the establishment of the Islamic Republic.
Gen. Yadollah Javani, formerly known as the Political Deputy to the IRGC Commander and presently serving as the Deputy for Political Affairs for Ali Khamenei within the IRGC, addressed a gathering aimed at "strengthening the Basij militia." He conveyed that the Israeli evaluation of the 2022 protests in Iran indicated their disregard for the potency, authenticity, and social deterrent capabilities of religious Iranians.
Entekhab website in Tehran quoted Javani at the gathering in Mashhad that the enemies wanted to sow despair among the Iranian people and officials and suggested that the government should free their minds from the clutches of the enemy.
The use of jargon in this context suggests that Javani was deeply affected by the extensive protests that occurred throughout Iran over a span of several months. Social media analysts have pointed out that the General appears to believe that the people supporting the current regime are a minority group and that they are surrounded by a larger opposition movement.
Javani's comment also sounded like a confession to the fact that the regime depends on this minority for its survival.
Meanwhile, borrowing Khamenei's idea of the "explanation jihad," Javani called for propagating the regime's narrative about the protests, mindless of the fact that this narrative may maintain the regime's current supporters in the "fortress," but it is unlikely to convince other Iranians to join them. There are also indications that as Iranian sociologists have been warning, some of those who are leaving Iran are disillusioned former regime supporters.
The IRGC General suggested that the regime should propagate former IRGC Qods Force Commander Qasem Soleimani's school of thought. However, no matter what Soleimani's school of thought was, what most Iranians remember about him are the stories of giving suitcases full of cash handouts to terrorist groups in the Middle East.
He went on to assert that following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Islamic Republic effectively thwarted the United States' aspirations of global dominance. Javani further contended that the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement aimed to cultivate animosity among Iranian youth towards individuals of religious faith.
Contrary to this, the prevailing viewpoint among a majority of pundits and politicians is that the government's inability to effectively address the nation's economic challenges served as a significant catalyst for the burgeoning opposition among the youth. This sentiment is compounded by the perception that the authorities are erecting various barriers that impede young Iranians from pursuing their preferred lifestyles.
Meanwhile, mirroring Javani's statement, another event highlighted the evident apprehension among Iranian officials as the anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death in custody in September 2022 draws near. In an interview, Deputy Judiciary Chief Sadeq Rahimi issued a warning, stating that Iranian intelligence agencies are prepared to identify individuals potentially inclined to participate in street protests in the upcoming days.
Rahimi particularly warned former detained protesters who were freed after serving some time in jail that their behavior will be scrutinized by security and intelligence officers.
Many of these individuals who were apparently pardoned by Khamenei, were arrested again after a few weeks and others, including the family members of those who were killed or blinded during the protests were arrested and jailed during the past few weeks.
Rahimi claimed without naming anyone or any country or presenting any evidence that "the enemies" are planning to disrupt peace and security in Iran during the coming weeks by provoking Iranian youths and creating problems for the people and the regime.
Neither Javani nor Rahimi addressed the core issues of economic challenges and constraints on social freedoms, which experts widely consider to be the primary driving forces behind the massive street protests by Iranians against the regime. These crucial factors have led millions to voice their discontent and take to the streets.
Speaking during a meeting with reporters in Los Angeles, Prince Reza Pahlavi a prominent opposition leader, emphasized that the focus of these protests should extend beyond Tehran, encompassing all regions of Iran.
Pahlavi asserted that should protests proliferate across different regions of Iran, the Islamic Republic could find itself obligated to distribute its repressive forces to various areas. He argued that this dispersal would potentially enhance the effectiveness of countermeasures against governmental forces.
Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman was arrested in the street by Iran’s morality or hijab police in mid-September and hours later was transferred to hospital with fatal head injuries, where she died three days later. The news immediately sparked nationwide protests, which lasted for five months and posed the most serious challenge to the Islamic Republic in its 44-year history.
Prince Pahlavi outlined the significance of Mahsa Amini's anniversary, highlighting it as an exceptional opportunity to strengthen the resolve of the people and sustain the momentum of protests and strikes against the Islamic Republic. He also emphasized that this movement's progress would experience both ebbs and flows, underscoring the difference between a campaign and a cause.
Describing the combination of protests and strikes as a potent strategy in confronting the Islamic Republic, he noted: "In my view, more than calling [the movement] a campaign, I think it's really a cause."
Prince Reza Pahlavi pointed out the considerable number of Iranians living abroad, stating, "We have more than eight million Iranians living abroad; if you take 10% of those to be active participants in the movement, it will change the entire dynamic."
He called on democratic countries worldwide to support Iranians in their journey towards democracy, noting the shared values of human rights, freedom, and an end to discrimination, which stand in stark contrast to the Iranian regime's stance.
Concurrently, 27 international groups and organizations have united in a call for a global gathering on September 16, coinciding with the first anniversary of Mahsa Amini's tragic death. These groups are urging global unity on this significant occasion, setting the stage for demonstrations in various cities and countries worldwide.
However, amidst the buildup to the anniversary, The Wall Street Journal has highlighted the Iranian government's intensified efforts to suppress protesters and activists. This crackdown reflects the government's deep-seated concerns that the intensity of the protest movement remains undiminished.
Mahmoud Amiri-Moghaddam, the director of Iran Human Rights, disclosed that the government is targeting individuals who may have been leaders or participants in past protests during this anniversary period.
According to the latest report by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, released on August 8, over 20,000 individuals have been arrested by agents of the Islamic Republic since the inception of the revolutionary uprising. These arrests pertain to participation in or support for the protests. Many of those detained have been granted temporary release on bail, while their cases remain pending within security organizations. Hundreds have also been re-arrested.
As global attention remains on Iran's human rights situation, Antonio Guterres, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, has recently called for immediate action by the Iranian government. He has emphasized the need to halt executions, release political prisoners of conscience, human rights activists, lawyers, and journalists in the country.