Iran International
Capital flight and brain drain are two of the most serious challenges Iran faces as President Raisi claims his government is ready to help investors and experts to return.
Speaking at a gathering of expatriate Iranians in Tehran Wednesday, Ebrahim Raisi said he has ordered the foreign ministry to form a taskforce to help resolve any legal or consular problems expatriate investors and experts may be facing for returning to the country.
By most estimates, 4-5 million first-generation Iranians have settled in other countries, but adding their children born abroad, who often acquire Iranian citizenship, the number can be much higher. There are also many immigrant communities in Asian countries, where no precise numbers exist. Some put the total number of Iranians outside the country at any given time at close to 8 million.
Raisi also ordered the ministry to lay the grounds for investments by expatriates and facilitate contacts with academics while claiming that a very bright future is awaiting the country and he cast the blame for the feelings of frustration and disappointment on “the enemy.”
At the same meeting, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said removing obstacles in the way of investment for expatriates, facilitating the return and employment of academics in Iranian universities, facilitating travel, and “countering the enemy’s media war against the Iranian nation in the country and abroad” were some of the most urgent tasks that the ministry would try to tackle.
Many Iranians living abroad, particularly those with dual citizenship who could be accused of spying for foreign governments, are wary of returning home for the fear of not being allowed to leave or even being imprisoned for their political activities or criticism of the regime while living abroad.
Dozens of dual nationals, particularly citizens of western countries such as the United States, Britain, and Germany have been sentenced to prison on charges of espionage in recent years. Some, such as Iranian-American businessman Siamak Namazi and Iranian-German rights activist Nahid Taghavi are still in prison.
The Islamic Republic often uses these prisoners as bargaining chips in negotiations with foreign governments or swaps them with Iranian prisoners and for money.
In November, amid nationwide anti-government protests, Amir-Abdollahian said the ministry had launched a portal that expatriates could check to find out if they could be in trouble for leaving Iran if they went back home, promising help from the ministry if there were any problems.
In the past six months, tens of thousands of Iranians have participated in protest rallies in support of the Mahsa protest movement in many major cities across the world. Many fear identification by the regime agents during such protests and danger of serious repercussions if they wanted to go back home.
Domestic issues such as inflation, international sanctions, political strife and politically driven economic risks, corruption and social restrictions have driven millions -- from investors to academics and professionals -- to emigrate in the past four decades.
The precise amount of capital leaving Iran is very difficult to calculate but it can be deducted from the official data on net capital account deficit. Head of Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture Masoud Khansari said in an interview with ILNA website in Tehran in early January that the annual outflow of capital has reached $10 billion. .
According to official figures, Iran's net capital account balance was positive from 2001 to 2005 when there was foreign investment. But in the following years, except in 2014, the balance has always been in the negative.
The hard currency outflow from the country is invested in various ways including in property, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, or establishment of companies abroad.
Many of the people sending their money out could be the very regime insiders whose political connections has helped them make huge financial gains over the years. Many have invested in the property markets in neighboring countries such as Turkey, Georgia and the United Arab Emirates.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Friday that Netanyahu's meetings with European leaders were aimed at reassuring them that Israel would do whatever it deems necessary against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.
“Recent trips to some European countries and meetings with the leaders of these countries are both a message for Europe and a direct message for the Iranian government," the source said, noting that Tehran has "received" this message.
On the backdrop of tensions over his government’s controversial overhaul of Israel’s judicial system, Netanyahu held meetings with Germany's aders, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, on his one-day trip to Berlin on Thursday where they talked about concerns over Iran’s fast-paced nuclear enrichment.
Israel will "do what it has to do, even alone" in the face of Iran's nuclear threat, the source said, adding that Netanyahu urged Schultz in their meeting to confront Iran with more strength and seriousness.
Moreover, the Israeli official told Iran International that thanks to Mossad operations inside Iran, progress in Tehran’s nuclear program with military potential was pushed back for seven years, but currently Tehran has passed serious red lines.
The official added that Israel and Germany are very close in finalizing a deal for the sale of the Arrow 3 -- or Hetz 3 in Hebrew -- exoatmospheric hypersonic anti-ballistic missile system to Berlin. The system is jointly developed and produced by Israel Aerospace Industries and Boeing under the management of the Israeli Ministry of Defense's "Homa" (rampart) administration and the US Missile Defense Agency.
As he stood with Scholz at the Holocaust memorial Platform 17 in Berlin, Netanyahu appeared to compare Iran with the Nazis, and spoke of the necessity of halting catastrophe in its early stages. “The main lesson we have learned is that when you are faced with such evil, you have to obstruct the evil designs early on to prevent catastrophe,” he said.
Netanyahu has time and again threatened military action against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program as it enriches uranium closer to weapons-grade levels. On March 9, Netanyahu told Iran International that Tehran is “dangerously moving forward” in its nuclear program, claiming that he returned to the government primarily to make sure that Iran cannot become a nuclear “threshold power.”
However, German officials also criticized Netanyahu for rejecting a compromise proposal by Israeli President Isaac Herzog for overhauling the legal system. Voicing concern about the planned overhaul, Scholz hailed efforts by Israel’s figurehead to seek a “broad basic consensus.”
Netanyahu met with Italian premier Giorgia Meloni last week when both both called for bolstering bilateral ties. His meeting with Meloni came just after Iran and Saudi Arabia announced a resumption of diplomatic ties, a development that Netanyahu was widely criticized at home for failing to prevent.
Head of Israel’s National Security Council Tzachi Hanegbi told Iran International earlier in the week that the rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh has nothing to do with Iran’s nuclear program. He described the agreement as a way to prevent the Islamic Republic from arming Yemen’s Houthis against the Saudi-led coalition, noting that Riyadh itself is worried about Tehran’s nuclear enrichment at weapons-grade.
On March 13, Iranian diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi said in an interview with Etemad Online that Europe and the United States probably welcome the breakthrough because it makes it less likely for Iran to disrupt the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf in case of an Israeli attack on its nuclear installations. He added that the agreement between Tehran and Riyadh will lead to a reduction in urgency for the US to supply arms to Persian Gulf Arab states as they would be now less concerned about possible threats from Iran.
In a glowing article published Friday, IRNA, the state news agency, portrays the agreement with Saudi Arabia, signed a week ago in Beijing, as a historical event that heralds a new era in the Middle East.
Iran’s national security chief Ali Shamkhani, an old IRGC hand, visited the United Arab Emirates Thursday and met with members of its top leadership. However so far, there is no concrete information about details of the discussions in UAE and Iranian media.
IRNA, however, said the visit shows that once Tehran and Riyadh embark on rapprochement, Saudi allies would follow and “foreign influence” will be reduced in the region, implicitly referring to the United States.
Shamkhani met with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid and ruler of Dubai and other top officials Thursday. “Their talks covered regional and international issues of mutual concern, and the importance of working to support peace and co-operation in the region to enable progress and prosperity for its people,” state news agency Wam reported.
Iranian media have hinted that Shamkhani’s agenda included discussions with the UAE to help Iran overcome some of the impact of US economic sanctions, as the regional trade and banking hub.
Iran has already been using middlemen and contacts in the UAE to facilitate its illicit oil trade and money laundering efforts. But any official commitment by the UAE is hard to imagine given the potential violation of US sanctions.
Reuters quoted two unnamed Iranian officials Thursday as saying that last September, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei lost patience with the slow pace of bilateral talks with Riyadh and summoned his team to discuss ways to accelerate the process, which led to China's involvement.
This would mean a complete about-face by Khamenei whose zealous followers attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran in January 2016, an incident that led Riyadh to cut diplomatic ties.
Khamenei and other senior clerics have over the years repeatedly castigated the Saudi ruling family as lackeys of the United States who were harming the interests of Muslims. Khamenei has so far been silent on the agreement with Riyadh, but he is scheduled to address the nation next Tuesday on the Iranian New Year, Nowruz.
Other reports have indicated a more forceful Chinese role in persuading Tehran to offer guarantees to Riyadh to facilitate normalization.
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Tehran has pledged not to send arms to Yemen’s Houthis who have been fighting Saudi-led forces for nearly a decade, quoting US and Saudi officials.
Yemen is clearly the most immediate issue the Saudis want to see resolved, as without Iran’s military backing, the Houthis have to show flexibility and perhaps conclude a peace agreement in the war-torn country.
An interesting part of the report by IRNA is the reference to popular protests that erupted last September after the death of Mahsa Amini in ‘hijab police’ custody. IRNA says that good relations with neighbors will help derail enemy plans to destabilize the Islamic Republic, repeating accusations that protests were part of a Western conspiracy.
It also emphasizes the need for a “rational” foreign policy, a term so far used by critics of the hardliners in full control of the government. It says the deal with Saudi Arabia and Shamkhani’s trip to the UAE can help calm the domestic political scene. These comments clearly show how far the regime has been shaken by the popular protests and how extending a hand to its Arab neighbors is now more a necessity than choice.
The media is using the term “field diplomacy” to describe the role the military can play in securing diplomatic outcomes, because Shamkhani was a long-time senior IRGC officer and navy commander with the rank of Admiral. The term is also used to highlight the use of the military in achieving diplomatic objectives, which in this context is IRGC’s regional power projection.
Hardline daily Vatan Emrooz which speaks for the ultraconservative Paydari Party and conservative Bultan [Bulletin] News which is close to parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf first used the term this week after a deal was reached in Beijing to restore diplomatic relations with Riyadh.
The term ‘field diplomacy’ was first used by former foreign minister Javad Zarif when IRGC Qods (Quds) Force commander Qassem Soleimani circumvented the Foreign Ministry and brought Syrian President Bashar Assad to Tehran for a meeting with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2019.
At the time, Zarif was so deeply annoyed by the IRGC's intervention, and not even inviting him to the meeting that he resigned, but Khamenei did not approve the resignation. Zarif later once again used the term about IRGC's intervention in foreign policy in a leaked interview that put an end to his career.
Vatan Emrooz, portrayed the Tehran-Riyadh agreement as a victory for Shamkhani and ‘field diplomacy’ and even extended this victory from the realm of foreign policy to the area of economy as Shamkhani went to Abu Dhabi for a diplomatic and economic mission on Thursday. The media in Tehran said that he will be seeking the United Arab Emirates' cooperation in circumventing US sanctions, particularly the ones that have largely hindered Iran's oil exports and international banking since 2018.
However, it is not yet clear how the UAE can cooperate with Iran as long as US and other international sanctions against Tehran are in place.
Iran and the UAE have recently raised the level of their diplomatic relations from the charge d'affairs level to the ambassadorial and have named their new chief diplomats. The hardliner media said that the UAE welcomes the breakthrough in the Iran-Saudi ties as it will eliminate the threat from Yemen where Houthis last year launched the first attack on Abu Dhabi in the history of the Emirates.
Vatan Emrooz added that Iran, on the other hand looks at the UAE as the Hong Kong of West Asia and a hub that can facilitate international banking operations for Iran. Only the future can show how realistic those security and financial hopes are.
The report in Bultan News, used the term field diplomacy with some caveat. Its headline said, "The agreement with Saudi Arabia was the outcome of a realistic union between field diplomacy and foreign diplomacy," although it is clear from all Iranian and international reports that Iran’s Foreign Ministry and the minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian had no part in making the long-awaited deal.
The website also stressed that it was the achievements of the Iranian military and nuclear scientists that were used as leverage to change regional developments in Iran's interest. This is clearly a reference to Iran's possible attempt to get closer to developing nuclear weapons.
In the meantime, while observers have asked both sides to act cautiously and calmly, some hardliners, including military officials appear to be going too far in their ambitions. IRGC's PR Chief Ramezan Sharif told ILNA News Agency in Tehran about the far-reaching impact of the deal between Tehran and Riyadh.
Sharif was quoted as saying, "The next Qods day ceremony in Iran on April 21 will bring about the end of the Abraham Accord between Israel and Arab nations."
The motion, which passed by 516 votes in favor, five against and 14 abstentions on Thursday, vehemently condemned “this atrocious attempt to silence women and girls in Iran,” and expressed “its deep solidarity with the Iranian students poisoned in the incidents and with their families.”
According to reports by state media and Iranian officials, more than 1,300 pupils, mostly girls, have fallen ill after "suspected poisonings'', with some politicians blaming religious groups opposed to girls’ education. Some activists have accused the regime of orchestrating the poisonings as revenge for the active role by schoolgirls in the protests ignited by the death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini last September.
Urging authorities to ensure girls have non-discriminatory access to education, MEPs called on the Islamic Republic to repeal any legislation that discriminates against girls and women, saying that since the wave of attacks started in November 2022, thousands of girls and women across Iran have been poisoned with toxic chemicals to prevent them from attending school.
It called on the Iranian authorities to grant full access to the UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission and the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Reiterating its condemnation of “the regime’s anti-women and anti-girls policies,” the European Parliament reaffirmed “its absolute support for Iranian women’s and girls’ demand to abolish all systemic discrimination.”
The resolution also decried the regime’s months-long failure to act on the serial poisonings, as well as its deliberate suppression of credible reports of systematic toxic attacks. Denouncing any politically motivated legal proceedings against those reporting on the poisonings, the resolution called for the immediate unconditional release of all those imprisoned or prosecuted.
The parliament also repeated its call on the Council of Europe to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – IRGC -- as a terrorist organization and to expand the EU sanctions list under the EU Global Human Rights sanctions mechanisms to include Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Ebrahim Raisi, and Prosecutor General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri for their role in rights violations.
The nine-point resolution also urged EU member states to facilitate the issuance of visas, asylum and emergency grants to those who need to leave Iran, "particularly women and girls". However, a point that was included in the proposed resolution but did not pass was a call “for the European institutions to reflect on the deeply rooted protest movement of Iranian women.” It sought to urge Europe to acknowledge “that this movement goes beyond the defense of women’s rights, advocating for a democratic state in Iran instead of a violent and reactionary theocracy.”
The Iranian government, police and judiciary have not issued a transparent and definitive report on the chemical attacks, vaguely claiming that dozens of arrests were made, without any sign of court action against alleged perpetrators.