Iran's FM Arrives In Moscow To Discuss Nuclear Talks, Ukraine Crisis

Recent reports, claiming to be based on insider information, have indicted that the Biden Administration plans to lift non-nuclear sanctions in the Vienna talks aimed at reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions, or JCPOA. Sanctions said to be lifted include terrorism related designations, possibly including entities and individuals affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

“According to press reports, the Biden Administration may soon conclude an agreement with Iran to provide substantial sanctions relief in exchange for merely short-term limitations on Iran’s nuclear program. By every indication, the Biden Administration appears to have given away the store,” a statement from Senate Republicans released on Monday said.

Republicans have been warning the Biden Administration from the time it assumed office not to seek to revive the JCPOA, which they regard as a weak agreement that would not stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons in the future and does not address other threats the Islamic Republic poses to regional countries.

“The administration has thus far refused to commit to submit a new Iran deal to the Senate for ratification as a treaty, as per its constitutional obligation, or for review under statutory requirements that passed on a bipartisan basis in response to the 2015 deal. Additionally, despite earlier promises to the contrary, the administration has failed to adequately consult with Congress,” the statement said.

The issue that might make an agreement in Vienna more controversial is what it would allow Iran to do with advances it has made in the past two years, including deploying more sophisticated uranium enrichment machines and the highly purified fissile material it has stockpiled. Some reports say that Tehran will be allowed to keep the machines called centrifuges, which would allow for a quick resumption of enrichment.

It is also expected that an agreement will require Iran to ship the highly enriched uranium to Russia, which on March 5 made demands to be exempted from Ukraine sanctions in its dealings with Tehran. The sudden request forced diplomats to freeze the Vienna negotiations indefinitely. The United States and its European allies have refused the Russian demand.

These are new elements beyond the Obama-era deal concluded 7 years ago and critics argue that it is could be considered a new agreement, which would need Congressional review of some sort.

“Republicans have made it clear: We would be willing and eager to support an Iran policy that completely blocks Iran’s path to a nuclear weapons capability, constrains Iran’s ballistic missile program, and confronts Iran’s support for terrorism. But if the administration agrees to a deal that fails to achieve these objectives or makes achieving them more difficult, Republicans will do everything in our power to reverse it,” the Senate Republicans said.

Some Democratic lawmakers have recently joined the opposition to the Biden Administration’s drive to reach a new agreement with Iran. The Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to have raised more concern about the Vienna talks in which Moscow has played an important mediating role.

Talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear pact face the prospect of collapse after a last-minute Russian demand forced world powers to pause negotiations for an undetermined time despite having a largely completed text.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov demanded on March 5 that his country’s economic and other ties with Iran to be exempted from Western sanction related to the invasion of Ukraine. The United States and its European allies have rejected the demand.

Iran, which blames the United States and NATO for the Ukraine invasion, has not criticized Moscow’s last-minute demand.

"We will remain in the Vienna talks until our legal and logical demands are met and a strong agreement is reached," Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, which makes the decisions in the Vienna talks, said in a tweet.

Tensions have risen since Iran attacked Iraq's northern city of Erbil on Sunday with a dozen ballistic missiles in an unprecedented assault on the capital of the autonomous Iraqi Kurdish region that appeared to target a new building for the US consulate in the city.

In his weekly media briefing on Monday, Saeed Khatibzadeh announced the visit, repeating that the nuclear talks hinge on decisions by Washington.
“We are now waiting for the American response”, he said, adding that “consultations continue at various levels, and the foreign ministers of the countries are in constant contact with each other, and the senior negotiators are also in touch with each other”.

After 11 months of negotiations in Vienna, talks to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran paused last week after Russia demanded exemptions from Ukraine sanction in its dealings with Iran.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said on March 5 that Moscow was looking for guarantees that any sanctions against Russia over Ukraine would not affect “the regime of trade-economic and investment ties embedded in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [the 2015 deal] on the Iranian nuclear program.”

Tehran, however, which has tacitly supported the Ukraine invasion, has not criticized Russia's demand.

Some media and politicians in Iran continue criticizing Russia for “obstructing” the nuclear talks in Vienna while hardline media defend Russia's aggression and tend to minimize the impact of Moscow's demand for exemption from Ukraine sanctions on Iran's nuclear deal with the West.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday no US citizens were harmed, and no US facilities were hit in the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Erbil.

Sullivan condemned the attack by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on Sunday, saying Washington would do whatever it takes to defend its people, interests and allies.

A statement by the State Department appeared to dispel the notion that Iran's attack had anything to do with the US.

"The United States strongly condemns the missile strikes on Erbil, Iraq last night that emanated from Iran. The strikes were an outrageous violation of Iraq’s sovereignty. No U.S. facilities were damaged or personnel injured, and we have no indications the attack was directed at the United States," the State Department said.

Iran’s missile attack came as diplomats have stopped nuclear talks in Vienna after 11 months of negotiations even though they say an agreement was very close to be finalized. The pause came after Russia on March 5 demanded an exemption from Ukraine sanctions in its economic and other relations with Iran. Tehran has not objected to Russia’s sudden move, which is bound to delay an agreement and lifting of Iran’s economic sanctions, vital for the government.

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman told Fox News on Sunday that “this was a very concerning attack” but "we do not believe the US consulate was actually the target of this missile attack."

She tacitly signaled that the attacks won’t have any effect on US readiness to conclude a nuclear deal with Iran, saying, Washington is concerned about the attacks but “imagine these Iranians with a nuclear weapon. We need to get that off the table so we can address their malign behavior in the Middle East… But first we’ve got to get this deal”.

“President Biden believes very strongly, as does secretary Blinken, as do I, that we need to get sure that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, and then we also need to deal with their malign behaver in the region, but first we’ve got to make sure that they cannot a nuclear weapon”.

The Biden administration has dismissed Moscow’s demand for exemptions from Ukraine sanctions, but some media outlets and politicians in Iran have been arguing that Russia has taken Iran’s nuclear deal hostage. They have accused their government of being subservient to Moscow to the extent of relinquishing the vital national interest in achieving an agreement with the West.

Critics of the Biden policy argue that once a nuclear deal is reached and Iran receives tens of billions of dollars in sanctions relief, it would have little incentive to negotiate over other issues, including its ballistic missile program and its aggressive regional policies.

The US ambassador to Iraq, Matthew Tueller, said the US condemns the “criminal attack on civilian targets in Irbil”, noting that "Iranian regime elements have claimed responsibility for this attack and must be held accountable for this flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty”.

The remark about “Iran regime elements” also minimizes the gravity of Iran’s act.

The IRGC that has accepted responsibility of the missile attack is not an element in a loose structure. It is Iran’s main military force, and its officers also occupy the top positions in the regular army. The commander in chief of both the IRGC and the army is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and any decision to launch a missile strike cannot be taken without his approval.

Some US lawmakers and former officials reacted differently to Iran’s action. Several people urged Biden to stop the nuclear talks, and not sign an agreement partly engineered by Russia.

In a major escalation of tensions in the Middle East, a dozen ballistic missiles struck Erbil at 1 am on Sunday, targeting the US consulate's new building and the neighboring residential area but caused only material damage and one civilian was injured, the Kurdish interior ministry said on Sunday.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards released on Sunday a statement taking responsibility for missile attacks against Israeli "strategic centers" in Iraq's northern Kurdish regional capital of Erbil

Democratic representative Elaine Luria said in a tweet hours after the attack that she is continuing to monitor the situation, stating that “if reports are accurate, the Biden Administration must withdraw its negotiations with Iran”.

“We cannot re-enter a failed JCPOA to further empower Iran and threaten global security”, the Navy veteran added.

Republican Congresswoman Lisa McClain said, “This aggression shows we should absolutely end all Iran Nuclear Deal negotiations now. We must also never buy Iranian oil”.

Congressman Ritchie Torres twitted, “Iran attacks a US consulate while seeking US sanctions relief? No Bueno”.

Senior Adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Richard Goldberg urged Biden to convene an emergency meeting of the National Security Council “to assess available intelligence & consider a full range of military, cyber, economic & political responses, noting, “The Russian-brokered Iran Deal on the table in Vienna includes lifting terrorism sanctions on Iran’s central bank, oil company, tanker company, petrochemical company & many more alongside removing the IRGC from the FTO list. Tonight should be a death knell for this horrible deal”.

“No country can be allowed to launch missile attacks against US interests without facing an immediate and meaningful response. There are a range of options. Deterrence must be restored. This isn’t partisan. If the President acts, he should get bipartisan support”, he added.

Gabriel Noronha, a former official at Iran desk in the State Department said, “Democrats and Republicans in Congress agree: Biden must not continue talks with Iran while they attack our bases in Iraq”.

Another official of the former US administration Robert Greenway, who was part of the negotiating team for the Abraham Accords, said, “Is it too much to ask Iran cease threatening US citizens to continue negotiations or enjoy any benefits of a deal? Or that we consider a regime so committed to killing more Americans unworthy of our trust negating the viability of any deal?”

Andrew Lewis Peek, who was a strategic advisor to the NATO commander in Afghanistan, said in a tweet, “Tonight’s missile attack in Iraq is 100% representative of a breakdown of deterrence against Iran not just under Biden, but under years of US policy in Iraq”.

Former research fellow at the Washington Institute Nadav Pollak has reacted to a video shared by advisor to Iran's nuclear negotiating team Mohammad Marandi, who gloated, “This is just the beginning”.

Pollak said, “The fact that Iran is doing this while talks are still being held in Vienna says something about how they perceive the EU and US resolve to contain them”.

A State Department spokesperson told Axios that the incident "is being investigated by the government of Iraq and the Kurdish Regional Government."