US Takes A Wait And See Approach To Iran's Claim Of Returning To Talks

Speaking to reporters in Tehran after a conference on Afghanistan, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Iran would decide on when to return to nuclear talks in Vienna after discussions in Brussels between Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri-Kani and the European Union’s Enrique Mora, who coordinates the Vienna process.

After meeting Mora, Bagheri tweeted from Brussels that they had reached agreement to resume negotiations before the end of November, with the exact date confirmed “next week.”

Not too far away

Amir-Abdollahian put as “not too far away” the date for resuming talks with the “4+1” – the five world powers without the US, which takes part in Vienna indirectly – and said this date would be set “Wednesday night or after [Bagheri-]Kani’s return to Iran, if we need more consultations.”

Amir-Abdollahian added, “We do not want to return to negotiations from the point of an impasse at Vienna talks, but we accept the format of the Vienna talks.”

Amir-Abdollahian said Iran’s need for clarification with the EU had involved discussing “how all the parties who return to the agreement will demonstrate that JCPOA sanctions against Iran would be fully lifted.” Iran did not, he explained, want to “return to negotiations from the point of an impasse at Vienna talks, but we accept the format of the Vienna talks.”

Iran suspended in June its participation in the Vienna talks, aimed at reviving its nuclear 2015 deal with world powers, first for the presidential election and then so new president Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) could prepare for the talks. But almost three months after Raisi’s inauguration, Tehran has stalled over agreeing a date to return to Vienna.

Concerned over delays

The three European signatories of the agreement – the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – and to a lesser extent Russia and China have expressed concerned over the delay. After the US left the JCPOA in 2018, Iran began exceeding the deal’s nuclear limits and is now enriching uranium to 20 and 60 percent purity, reducing the time needed to acquire 90-percent-purified uranium for a nuclear device.

Amir-Abdollahian also referred to a looming trip to Tehran of Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, as “certain” although the date was “not important.” Grossi has requested an urgent meeting to revolve disagreement over IAEA access to the Karaj site where Iran makes centrifuges, which are used to enrich uranium.

While many diplomats involved in the Vienna process felt progress was made, there was difficulty agreeing which US sanctions contravened the JCPOA and exactly how the expanded and improved Iranian atomic program should be brought back within the JCPOA.

Tehran has argued that some US sanctions ostensibly on grounds other than the nuclear program impede its ability to benefit from the JCPOA and that it needs guarantees that Washington would not again withdraw from the agreement as previous president Donald Trump did in 2018.

“[President Joe] Biden must demonstrate his will about returning to JCPOA,” Amir-Abdollahian said. “We are not so eager for America’s return to the JCPOA for the sake of returning. The important issue is the result, if it is to Iran’s benefit or not. Would America return in order to lift sanctions, or to impose new limitations?”

Unfreezing $10 billion of Iran’s funds – this is money owed to Iran by third countries fearing US punitive action – would, Amir-Abdollahian said, “show that Americans are serious about lifting the sanctions.”

Sullivan speaking from the White House was referring to the G20 Summit this weekend and the global climate summit next week.

He added that Biden looks forward to discussing the Iran nuclear issue especially with the E3, the United Kingdom, France and Germany who are participants in the 2015 Iran deal (JCPOA), so that the US and Europe can present "a united front after the four years of division on the Iran policy in the last administration."

Asked about at what stage the Administration would consider that Iran has passed the point of no return in its nuclear program, Sullivan avoided a specific answer.

"I'm not fixing a date on that. Obviously, we closely monitor the progress in Iran's nuclear program. We are alarmed and concerned by the steps that they have taken since they left the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action," Sullivan said.

He added, “Within the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, there were constraints on that program that were significant and substantial. We had a lid on that program. Now we do not because we don't have that deal. So, our first and highest priority is to get back to the table and get back to a deal that does, in fact, place a lid on Iran's nuclear program."

The national security adviser said the US and its partners still want a diplomatic solution to bring both America and Iran back into compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal that former President Donald Trump withdrew from.

Iran suspended its participation in multilateral negotiations in Vienna in June and has not responded to calls to return to the talks. Meanwhile it continues enriching uranium and getting closer to a point where it can have enough fissile material for a nuclear device.

Sullivan underscored the window for diplomacy "is not unlimited...and that we of course, retain all other options to be able to deal with this program as necessary."

“And we will be sending clear messages to the Iranians, as we have been doing over the course of the past few months, that this window is not unlimited, that we do need to see a return to diplomacy and progress at the diplomatic table, and that we of course, retain all other options to be able to deal with this program as necessary.”

Iran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency last week it had temporarily fed uranium enriched to up to 20% into extra “single machine and intermediate cascades...without any collection of products”, the IAEA said in a statement, adding it later verified Iran had begun feeding just one IR-6 centrifuge but the product was not being collected.

The move is likely to help Iran refine its knowledge of the enrichment process - something Western powers generally condemn because it is irreversible - but since this time the product is not being collected it will not immediately accelerate Iran's production of uranium enriched to close to weapons-grade.

Iran suspended multilateral talks in Vienna in June aimed at restoring the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear agreement that curbed its nuclear activities. In the meantime, it continues its uranium enrichment, stockpiling 20-percent and 60-percent enriched fissile material.

The JCPOA put a 3.65-percent enrichment cap on Iran. The 20-percent enrichment level is already high and the 60-percent degree of purity has no civilian use.

The latest move has, however, prompted the International Atomic Energy Agency to "increase the frequency and intensity of its safeguards activities" at the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) at Natanz, the IAEA said in a report seen by Reuters. As of around 90% uranium is considered weapons-grade.

The IAEA said in a statement outlining the report that Iran informed it last week of changes to the setup of centrifuges, machines that enrich uranium, at the plant - Iran would feed uranium enriched to up to 20% into limited numbers of extra centrifuges without collecting the product.

"On 25 October 2021, the Agency verified that Iran began feeding (uranium hexafluoride gas) enriched up to 20% U-235 into a single IR-6 centrifuge in R&D line 2 at PFEP and that the resulting product and tails streams were being re-combined," the IAEA report said, meaning that after separating the enriched product it was mixed with the centrifuge's waste and not kept.

Iran had said it planned to also feed uranium enriched to up to 20% into other single centrifuges or small- to medium-sized cascades, or clusters, of machines on the same line, but those were not being fed at the time, the IAEA said.

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned the pact in 2018 and reimposed harsh U.S. sanctions. About a year later, Iran started violating some of the deal's limits on uranium enrichment.

President Joe Biden announced before his election that he intended to restore the JCPOA and in April the US, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China began talks in Vienna.

Iran has also curtailed IAEA’s monitoring activities since February, demanding that US lift sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy.

Report by Reuters

"The Israeli Air Force will begin practicing for a strike on Iran’s nuclear program beginning next year, having set aside funding and updated its training schedule for the mission," the Times of Israel reported. The newspaper said that while plans were in draft, some parts could be ready quickly while others would take over a year to be fully actionable.

A senior Israeli military official told Iran International's correspondent in Tel Aviv Monday that attacking Iran was now the Israeli air force’s top priority. Last week the Israeli media revealed the government had a $1.5-billion budget for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities that covered fighter jets, bombers, and intelligence gathering drones, as well as specialized munitions that could penetrate Iran's underground sites.

Israel has for decades accused Iran of pursuing a nuclear bomb. Iran has repeatedly declared that it has no intention of attaining atomic weapons and its program has been closely monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency. An Israeli attack would be the first on nuclear sites under IAEA inspection.

Iran has also repeatedly declared that it has no intention of pursuing nuclear weapons and criticized the International Atomic Energy Agency for allegedly having "double standards" when it comes to Israel's nuclear program and possession of nukes which it neither confirms nor denies.

Some in Iran, and elsewhere, have said the latest Israeli threats are meant to sabotage Iran's talks with world powers in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plant of Action).

"Israel's limited military sabotage in Iran will continue but the regime will not dare to launch a military attack against Iran," foreign relations commentator Hassan Lasjerdi told Iran's Rouydad news website Monday. Israel's recent threats resulted from Iran's expression of willingness to return to the JCPOA, Lasjerdi said.

Yossi Cohen, former head of the Israel intelligence agency Mossad, recently said that Iran “was not even close to acquiring a nuclear weapon” and that Israel needed to look to build on the JCPOA rather than continuing its opposition.

But others think Israel is ready for military action as it sees itself in danger. “I think an Israeli attack on Iran is definitely possible," Sohrab Sobhani, US-based chairman of Caspian Group holdings, told Iran International. Sobhani said authorities in Tehran lacked a “proper understanding” of Israel's position: “Preservation of Israel means everything to Israel and Jews around the world, irrespective of who rules in the United States.”

Ali Shamkhani, Iran’s top security official, Sunday said Sunday Israel should reconsider its spending plans. "Instead of allocating $1.5 billion budget for atrocities against Iran, the Zionist regime should focus on providing tens of thousands of billion dollars funding to repair the damage that is going to be caused by Iran's shocking response,"he tweeted separately in English, Hebrew, and Arabic.

Iran has ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel as well as allies in Hezbollah and Palestinian groups who have shorter-range missiles. Israel regularly attacks targets in Lebanon and Syria, and Monday Syrian media reported Israeli attacks on facilities reportedly linked to Hezbollah near the Israel-occupied Golan region of Syria.

But besides its powerful air force, Israel also has long-range missiles that can reach Iran, and ultimately its nuclear weapons, if Iran decides to inflict unbearable damage on its cities.

"I will meet (EU) coordinator in Brussels on Wednesday to continue our talks on result-oriented negotiations (between Iran and the six powers)," Bagheri Kani tweeted, alluding to Mora's initial round of discussions in Tehran on October 14.

Initially, Iran had said that the meeting would take place on October 20, but later the EU said no date was fixed. Meanwhile the US State Department said that no additional meeting was necessary in Brussels.

In April, Iran and six powers started talks to reinstate the deal, which then-US President Donald Trump ditched three years ago before reimposing sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy. But the talks were put on hold after Iran's presidential election in June that brought anti-Western hardliner Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi) to power.

The United States and European powers have urged Iran to return to negotiations, warning that time is running out as the Islamic Republic's uranium enrichment program is advancing well beyond the limits set by the nuclear pact.

Meanwhile, US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley told reporters after a long trip to the Middle East and Europe that the reasoning behind the suspension of the Vienna talks is “wearing thin.” He said it was hard to find an “innocent explanation” for the delay.

Malley added, “I think all of our interlocutors, whether they’re in the region, or in Europe, shared a deep and growing concern about the pace and direction” of Iran’s nuclear activities.

In reaction to Trump's reimposition of sanctions, Tehran has breached the deal by rebuilding stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity and installing advanced centrifuges to speed up output.

In having a separate meeting with the EU, Iran seems to try to re-negotiate what has been already agreed in Vienna in six rounds of talks from April to June, without the US being present.

Iran has repeatedly said it will return to negotiations “soon”, but it has yet to specify a date.

"Iran is determined to engage in negotiations that would remove unlawful and cruel sanctions in a full & effective manner, secure normalization of trade & economic relations w/ Iran, and provide credible guarantee for no further reneging," Bagheri Kani tweeted.

On Monday, Mikhail Ulyanov, the Russian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, took a jab at Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian who had just repeated Iran’s refrain of returning to the talks “soon”. Ulyanov asked in a tweet what ‘soon’ means in diplomacy.

With reporting by Reuters