The Middle East may be entering a period in which ceasefires no longer end wars but manage them, as the warring sides trade limited strikes below the threshold of an all-out war, experts told Iran International’s townhall held in Washington DC.
The discussion, hosted by Iran International’s Negar Mojtahedi, centered on whether the latest ceasefire in Lebanon marks the end of a war or the beginning of a more dangerous phase: a regional conflict in which Iran increasingly treats attacks on its proxies as attacks on itself.
A ceasefire that does not end the war
Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Iran’s latest posture toward Lebanon should be viewed against the long arc of the Islamic Republic’s presence there.
He noted that it has been more than four decades since the first official officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps arrived in Lebanon, making the country a central pillar of Tehran’s regional project.
For years, Vatanka said, Iran used Lebanon and Hezbollah to project power, particularly against Israel. But recent events suggest Tehran may now be entering “a new chapter,” one in which the distinction between Iran and its proxy network becomes more blurred.
“An attack on Hezbollah, an attack on the Houthis, an attack on the Hashd al-Shaabi is going to, from now onward, be considered an attack on Iran,” Vatanka said, describing what Iranian officials have presented as a new defense doctrine.
He cautioned that if taken literally, such a doctrine could mean an open-ended regional confrontation. Any strike on Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, or Iran-backed militias in Iraq could invite a direct Iranian response, turning local battlefields into triggers for wider escalation.
Vatanka said Tehran appears to be defending its proxy strategy at a moment when many analysts had expected the opposite. After October 7 and the heavy blows inflicted on Iran-backed groups, some believed the Islamic Republic might conclude that its “forward defense” strategy had failed. Instead, he said, influential voices in Tehran appear to be arguing that this is precisely the moment to double down.
Iran’s umbrella over Lebanon
Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute, said Lebanon is now caught between two competing visions of its future.
“There are two competing realities in Lebanon,” Satloff said. “One reality is Iran asserting its umbrella to control Lebanon... The other reality is Lebanon and Israel negotiating a security agreement, potentially a peace agreement.”
That contrast may define the next phase of the conflict. In one scenario, Iran tries to reassert control through Hezbollah and make clear that Lebanon remains part of its regional security architecture. In the other, Lebanon’s government attempts to reclaim sovereignty and pursue security arrangements with Israel, with US backing.
Satloff said Iran’s attempt to claim Lebanon under its umbrella has not succeeded, but neither has the effort to fully disarm Hezbollah. He described the challenge as a contest between Iran’s regional power projection and a fragile Lebanese state trying to implement commitments it has made before but repeatedly failed to fulfill.
He also argued that Iran’s latest direct attack on Israel showed weakness rather than strength. Compared with previous barrages involving hundreds of missiles, he said, the latest attack was limited and intercepted, exposing the degradation of Iran’s capabilities rather than demonstrating strategic confidence.
Hezbollah down, but not out
Ambassador David Hale, a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute and former US ambassador to Lebanon, Jordan and Pakistan, said one of the most striking changes is Hezbollah’s current vulnerability.
“Hezbollah is so degraded, it's down but not out, but it's so degraded that it can't defend itself,” Hale said. “Iran is coming in to defend its proxy. It's always the other way around.”
For Hale, that reversal is significant. Hezbollah was long understood as one of Iran’s most powerful deterrent tools, a force capable of threatening Israel and shaping Lebanese politics on Tehran’s behalf. Now, he said, Iran’s direct intervention suggests Hezbollah can no longer perform its traditional role with the same effectiveness.
Still, Hale warned against assuming that Lebanon can resolve the Hezbollah question through military action alone. He said sovereignty is not “a light switch,” and disarming Hezbollah will require a political process as well as military pressure.
Lebanon’s state institutions, he said, remain weak by design, reflecting the country’s sectarian balance. Although President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have shown willingness to engage in a new direction, Hale said the Lebanese Armed Forces are unlikely to simply move into Hezbollah-controlled areas “guns blazing.” A durable solution would require humanitarian support, political alternatives for Lebanon’s Shiite community, and a credible state presence in the south.
The US as the decisive variable
The panelists agreed that whether this becomes the region’s new normal depends heavily on Washington.
Satloff said Iran’s attacks across the region, including against Kuwait, Bahrain and a US base in Jordan, should remind Arab states “who the real aggressor is” and create an opportunity for President Donald Trump to rally regional partners against Tehran. But he warned that the moment could be lost if Washington quickly returns to seeking any deal it can get.
Hale said the United States should rely less on public rhetoric and more on sustained pressure. He argued that Tehran understands violence and intimidation, and that Washington must be prepared to respond with persistent military, economic and political pressure.
But the panel also raised doubts about the coherence of US strategy. Vatanka said he was struck by how much planning appeared to have gone into the military side of the confrontation, and how little into the political endgame. The stated US goal, he noted, has shifted from encouraging Iranians to challenge the regime to narrower objectives such as the nuclear file, trade and the Strait of Hormuz.
That uncertainty may be what makes the current moment so dangerous. A ceasefire may reduce the intensity of the fighting, but if Iran continues to defend its proxies as extensions of itself, Israel continues to strike perceived threats, Arab states are drawn into the line of fire, and Washington alternates between pressure and dealmaking, the region could remain trapped in a cycle of calibrated escalation.
Audience questions turn to Washington’s endgame
The audience Q&A shifted the discussion from battlefield dynamics to whether Washington has a political strategy to match its military pressure on Tehran.
Asked about regime change, Hale warned against raising expectations among Iranians without being prepared to follow through.
Satloff said Washington should instead invest in tools that prepare the ground for change, including stronger broadcasting to Iranians, internet access, and visa or asylum pathways for dissidents.
Vatanka said the deeper problem remains the lack of a coherent US strategy toward Iran.
The exchange underscored a central point of the townhall: without a political endgame, military pressure alone may leave the region trapped in a cycle of ceasefires, strikes and retaliation.
For now, the experts suggested, the Middle East is not clearly moving from war to peace. It may instead be settling into a volatile gray zone: a ceasefire era in which the guns never fully fall silent.
Tehran’s unveiling of a towering statue depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I has renewed criticism of the Islamic Republic’s appeal to nationalist sentiment following the June war with Israel.
For over forty years, the theocracy purged ancient Persian history from schoolbooks, replacing it with post-Islamic narratives. But after the 12-day conflict with Israel, officials have turned to the distant pre-Islamic past to rally a divided society.
From murals of ancient kings and soldiers to patriotic songs added to Shi’ite mourning ceremonies performed before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran now embraces imagery once deemed heretical by its own revolutionary ethos.
'Kneel before Iran' campaign
Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) Square was the scene of an unusual spectacle on Friday as officials unveiled a massive bronze statue depicting Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling in submission before Sassanid King Shapur I, commemorating Iran’s victory at the Battle of Edessa (260 AD).
The event was held under the slogan “Kneel before Iran,” part of what authorities describe as a campaign to project “national unity and historical pride” following the June war with Israel.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a staunch ultraconservative, said on X: “Enmity with Great Iran can only end in kneeling before this historic nation.”
Municipal official Davood Goodarzi said the installation would be accompanied by visual displays depicting “other victories of Iranians over foreign aggressors,” including the defeat of British forces by local commander Rais-Ali Delvari, Mirza Kuchak Khan’s resistance against Russian troops, and Surena’s triumph over Rome at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE.
The goal, Goodarzi said, is “strengthening concepts such as national dignity, social unity, and Iranian identity.”
The statue, he said, would remain temporarily at Revolution Square before being moved to a city gateway “where it will stand as the first emblem of Iran before diplomats and foreign visitors.”
Unveiled women were allowed to attend the unveiling ceremony—an uncommon scene at events organized by Tehran’s ultra-hardline municipality.
The turn to the pre-Islamic past
The sharp reversal also recalls remarks once made by Khamenei. In a 2011 speech, he asserted that “all the great military victories of this nation came after Islam,” dismissing pre-Islamic accounts as “things that are not documented.”
In 1987, he had said that prophets triumphed over kings such as Cyrus and that “nothing remains of these monarchs in history but names remembered with derision.”
Nevertheless, pro-government social media accounts have now gone so far as to circulate posters equating Khamenei himself with Shapur, showing him standing with a staff as Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump kneel before him. The caption reads: “You will kneel before Iran.”
'Hypocrisy'
Pro-government figures have hailed the move as a patriotic success. Conservative political reporter Hossein Saremi posted: “Today’s grand Iranian gathering showed that people and the state share one essence: Iran itself. Nothing can take our homeland away.”
Others, however, called the spectacle “hypocrisy.” Journalist Gholamhossein Pashaei wrote on X: “Every year you close Pasargadae to stop people from celebrating Cyrus Day, yet you unveil Shapur’s statue in Enghelab Square with drums and fireworks during Fatimiyya (mourning period)!”
Dissident commentator Hamid Asafi called the ceremony “a perfect snapshot of the Islamic Republic’s contradictions.”
On Telegram he wrote: “A week ago they closed Cyrus’s tomb out of fear of the crowds, and now they glorify Shapur in the same breath. The Islamic Republic fears living history but poses for selfies with its corpse.”
He added: “They know people no longer respond to rosaries and sermons. That’s why they’ve brought history back to the stage—in a controlled costume. If they can’t erase the past, they’ll try to own it.”
The irony deepened as UNESCO formally recognized Cyrus’s Charter as one of the earliest human-rights documents.
President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “Iran, the cradle of dialogue, justice, and coexistence, can still inspire peace today.”
Users swiftly replied, questioning how such pride could coexist with a government that blocks access to Cyrus’s tomb each year to those wishing to visit it on his birthday.