European airlines are facing their biggest test since the COVID-19 pandemic as the Iran war drives up jet fuel prices, disrupts Middle East routes and raises concerns about possible fuel shortages ahead of the summer holiday season.
Jet fuel prices have risen nearly 84% since the start of the war on February 28, according to Reuters. Airlines have so far softened the impact through hedging, which allows them to lock in fuel prices, but some of those protections are starting to run out as the conflict drags on.
“There is a risk that we’ll see rationing of fuel supply, particularly in Asia and Europe,” Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association, told Reuters, though he said supply remained robust for now.
Walsh said the crisis was still far smaller than the pandemic-era collapse in travel, because demand for flights remains strong. “I think COVID was on a completely different scale,” he said. “What we’re seeing here is, in effect, a cost issue for the airlines.”
The aviation pressure is tied directly to the Iran war and the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil and gas flows. Repeated stops and starts in peace talks, combined with uncertainty over the reopening of Hormuz, have kept energy markets under strain.
Some carriers are already warning of weaker bookings and higher costs. EasyJet and tour operator TUI have reported drops in forward bookings and issued profit warnings, while Air France-KLM, IAG and Lufthansa are expected to report first-quarter results in the coming days after raising prices and cutting capacity in response to the war.
Persian Gulf carriers have been hit hardest. Cirium Ascend data cited by Reuters showed flights operated by Middle Eastern airlines fell 50% year-on-year in March, while bookings for the second and third quarters through major regional hubs are down 42.5%.
Still, the impact is uneven. Wizz Air said summer bookings remain strong, Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary played down the risk of supply disruption, and Finnair said the crisis had so far helped demand for its Asian flights. Global passenger capacity remains nearly 2% higher than in 2025.
