US President Donald Trump said on Friday regime change in Iran could eventually occur though it may not happen immediately, citing the Iranian authorities’ violent repression of protesters as a major obstacle to a popular uprising.
Speaking on Fox News Radio's The Brian Kilmeade Show, Trump said security forces loyal to the Islamic Republic routinely shoot demonstrators in the streets, making it difficult for unarmed civilians to challenge the regime despite growing pressure from the ongoing conflict.
“They literally have people in the streets with machine guns, machine-gunning people down if they want to protest,” Trump said, referring to Iran’s security forces. “That’s a pretty big hurdle to climb for people that don’t have weapons.”
Trump said that while change inside Iran will eventually happen, it is unlikely to occur quickly under such conditions.
“It’ll happen,” he said, “but it probably will be — maybe not immediately.”
The US president made the remarks while discussing the internal situation in Iran amid the escalating war between Iran, Israel and the United States. Trump argued that the regime maintains control largely through force, describing the security forces as an “evil group of people” who shoot protesters “right through the head.”
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps warned on Thursday that opponents could face a blow “even stronger than January 8,” signaling the possibility of a renewed and harsher crackdown if street protests resume.
More than 36,500 Iranians were killed by security forces during a two-day crackdown on nationwide protests on January 8–9.
Trump said the presence of armed units on the streets makes it extremely difficult for ordinary Iranians to take action against the government.
“You’re talking about people that go out shooting protesters,” he said. “So when someone says go out and protest, that’s a pretty high standard.”
The comments came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the current conflict will create conditions for political change inside Iran.
Trump said continued military pressure on Iran's regime could weaken the authorities over time.
“They’re going to be in worse shape as time goes by,” Trump said, adding that US and Israeli strikes have severely damaged Iran’s military capabilities.
The warning came from the intelligence organization of the Revolutionary Guards, which said street unrest would be treated as a precursor to military action. “Those we call the ‘Neo-ISIS elements’ should know that a blow even harsher than that of January 8 awaits them,” the statement said.
More than 36,500 Iranians were killed by security forces during a two-day crackdown on nationwide protests on January 8–9. Iran International confirmed the death toll after examining obtained classified documents along with field reports and accounts from medical staff, witnesses, and victims’ families.
In its statement, the Guards accused foreign adversaries of trying to stir unrest inside Iran after failing to achieve their goals on the battlefield. It said enemies were now attempting to “spread fear and provoke street protests.”
The warning came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel’s military campaign was intended in part to create conditions that could allow Iranians to protest against the Islamic Republic.
“We will create optimal conditions to do this, including airstrikes as we did yesterday, as we are doing these days, to try to give them the space needed to take to the streets,” Netanyahu said at a press conference on Thursday.
He said Israeli strikes were delivering “crushing blows” to the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, the paramilitary force often deployed against protesters, but added that any effort to bring down the Islamic Republic would ultimately depend on action from within Iran.
For days the conflict had focused largely on military bases, missile sites and command facilities, particularly in southern Iran, as part of the wider US-Israeli campaign that has struck thousands of targets across the country since the war began on February 28.
But since Wednesday evening, reported drone strikes on checkpoints in Tehran have pointed to a parallel line of pressure: the local security posts, patrol units and temporary deployments used to enforce control on the streets.
Iranian state-linked media said several checkpoints in Tehran were hit, killing members of the security forces and Basij militia. The reported locations included positions in multiple districts across the capital.
The development suggests the conflict is increasingly intersecting with the structures the state relies on to control neighborhoods rather than only its larger military infrastructure.
From fixed bases to moving checkpoints
Since the start of the war, residents across Iran say checkpoints and patrols have multiplied in major cities as authorities attempt to prevent unrest and maintain control.
At the same time, Iran International has received a steady stream of messages from viewers describing the locations of checkpoints, security deployments and temporary bases.
Some reports describe armed units inspecting vehicles at major highway entrances or intersections. Others mention security forces using schools, sports halls and religious institutions as temporary accommodation or staging points.
Messages received in recent days pointed to deployments in locations ranging from major Tehran highways to entrances to cities such as Karaj, Shiraz, Mashhad and Qazvin. Residents also described units stationed beneath highway bridges, near parks or inside parking areas where buses and motorcycles were parked overnight.
In several cases, viewers reported that checkpoints they had previously seen disappeared within hours or days, while others appeared to move to nearby streets or disperse into smaller patrol groups.
Some messages described security forces sleeping inside buses or personal vehicles and conducting mobile patrols rather than remaining in fixed positions.
Others said checkpoints that had been inspecting vehicles were suddenly dismantled, leaving only a few officers nearby.
Such reports cannot be independently verified in each case. But taken together they suggest that many deployments are becoming more fluid, with positions shifting frequently rather than remaining in one place.
A war over control of the neighborhood
The shift reflects a deeper pressure on the state’s local enforcement network.
For years the Islamic Republic has relied on a dense web of Basij, police and Revolutionary Guards positions to control neighborhoods and quickly suppress unrest.
During the recent nationwide protests earlier this year, these same networks formed the backbone of the crackdown that sealed off districts and quashed the demonstrations.
In wartime, those local security units appear to be playing an even more central role.
As larger bases and installations come under pressure from airstrikes, authorities appear to be relying more heavily on mobile checkpoints and temporary deployments to maintain control on the ground.
Now those fallback positions are also being drawn into the conflict.
The result is a battlefield that increasingly overlaps with everyday urban space. Instead of remaining confined to distant military facilities, the war is beginning to touch the street corners, highway entrances and neighborhood patrol routes where the state exerts day-to-day authority.
Trump issued the warning in a post on Truth Social, saying any attempt by Iran to mine the narrow maritime passage would trigger a severe response.
“If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY! If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before,” he wrote.
“If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction!”
He later said American forces have destroyed 10 inactive Iranian mine-laying boats and ships in recent hours, warning that additional strikes could follow.
CBS News earlier quoted US officials as saying that Iran may be preparing to deploy naval mines in the strategic waterway in an attempt to further disrupt shipping through the Persian Gulf. According to the officials, Tehran could use small boats capable of carrying two or three mines each to place them in the strait.
The warning comes as the United States continues to review options to protect maritime traffic in the region.
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Tuesday the Pentagon is examining possible measures, including escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which roughly a fifth of global oil supplies pass.
“We are looking at a range of options to set the military conditions to be able to do that,” Gen. Dan Caine said during a briefing when asked about escorting ships.
He said officials are evaluating the risks and resources required for such an operation.
The White House also signaled that the administration is preparing additional steps to ensure the strait remains open.
Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the Trump administration has already offered political risk insurance to tankers operating in the Persian Gulf and temporarily waived certain oil-related sanctions.
She added that Trump has also offered the US Navy to escort tankers if necessary, but confirmed that no ship has been escorted yet, days after the idea was first raised to reassure maritime trade companies.
“The President and his energy team are closely watching the markets, speaking with industry leaders, and the US military is drawing up additional options, following the President's directive to continue keeping the Strait of Hormuz open,” Leavitt said.
Iran's Guards threaten commercial ships
Iranian officials have meanwhile doubled down on their own warnings over access to the strait.
Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the naval forces of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, said ships linked to what he called “aggressors” would not be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
“If you have doubts, come closer and test it,” Tangsiri wrote on X.
Earlier, the Revolutionary Guards said Arab or European countries that expel Israeli and US ambassadors from their territories would be granted full freedom of transit through the strait starting Tuesday.
US officials say the military campaign against Iran has already reduced Tehran’s ability to carry out attacks.
Gen. Caine said ballistic missile launches have dropped sharply since the start of Operation Epic Fury.
“Ballistic missile attacks continue to trend downwards, 90% from where they started, and one-way attack drones have decreased 83% since the beginning of the operation,” he said.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the United States and Israel were “winning decisively” in the conflict and vowed the campaign would continue until its objectives are achieved.
The goals of Operation Epic Fury, he said, remain destroying Iran’s missile stockpiles, launchers and defense industrial base, degrading its naval capabilities and ensuring Tehran cannot obtain nuclear weapons.
“Our will is endless, but ultimately the president gets to determine the end state of those objectives,” Hegseth said.
