Tehran ignored warnings of unrest, chose force over reform
Behrouz Turani
Iran International
The protests that erupted across Iran in January 2026 may have appeared sudden to outside observers but inside the country, they were anything but.
Iran International
The protests that erupted across Iran in January 2026 may have appeared sudden to outside observers but inside the country, they were anything but.
For more than a year, Iranian political analysts, sociologists and even establishment insiders had warned that mounting economic pressure and social exhaustion were pushing the country toward a nationwide rupture.
The state, unable or unwilling to pursue reform, appeared to place its faith instead in a familiar instrument: brute force.
When unrest finally broke out, it was met with an exceptionally violent crackdown that claimed thousands of lives. The predictions came true in the worst possible way.
‘Boiling point’
In October 2025, former labor minister and government spokesman Ali Rabiei wrote in the reformist daily Sharq that Iranians were “fed up with the government’s promises.” Without meaningful economic relief, he warned, the country risked sliding into civil unrest.
A month later, sociologist Taghi Azad Armaki described the situation as “critical,” calling for national dialogue rather than denial. Accumulated social dissatisfaction, he told the moderate daily Etemad, had pushed society to its “boiling point.”
Moderate commentator Abbas Abdi went further weeks later, writing in Etemad that Iranian society had reached “the point of no return.”
State-affiliated news agencies — including Revolutionary Guards-linked Fars — did highlight economic grievances, but largely downplayed the likelihood of widespread protest, framing any potential unrest as the work of foreign actors.
A crisis mapped in advance
The clearest articulation of what lay ahead came in late December 2025, just as protests were beginning to spread and foreign-exchange and gold prices were surging.
Writing for the reformist website Rouydad24, analyst Amir Dabiri Mehr argued that Iran’s fate now hinged almost entirely on how the government chose to respond. He outlined four possible scenarios, ranging from de-escalation to catastrophe.
In the first two — economic reform or restraint by security forces — the government would seek to calm public anger without violence. Dabiri Mehr treated both as increasingly unlikely. Events soon confirmed that assessment.
The third scenario, a violent crackdown, did unfold. Security forces suppressed protests across cities including Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan and Rasht, temporarily silencing dissent through force.
Ignoring it all
Dabiri Mehr’s fourth scenario envisioned escalation: a severe crackdown combined with the portrayal of protesters as “enemies” or “foreign agents,” pushing unrest toward militarization and raising the risk of foreign intervention or broader confrontation.
He cautioned that a social media blackout would not contain anger but displace it — forcing dissent from online spaces into the streets and transforming economic frustration into a wider social movement. Repression alone, he warned at the time, would not resolve the crisis.
The tragedy now unfolding was foreseen not only by contemporary analysts but, metaphorically, by Iran’s own literary tradition.
In Ferdowsi’s Shahnameh, written a millennium ago, a line captures the logic of the present moment: When a man’s fortune darkens, he does everything he should not do.
The warnings were clear. The alternatives were understood. What followed was not inevitability, but choice—and its consequences are now unfolding.
From Tokyo and Seoul in East Asia to Los Angeles and San Francisco on the US West Coast, and from Oslo, Stockholm, and Tampere in northern Europe to Melbourne and Adelaide in the Southern Hemisphere, Iranian communities took to the streets in what organizers described as coordinated expressions of solidarity with protesters inside Iran.
One of the largest gatherings took place in Toronto on January 16, where demonstrators marched despite blizzard conditions and subzero temperatures. Aerial images showed large crowds carrying Iranian national symbols and banners, making the event one of the most widely attended diaspora protests during this period.
Growth of diaspora mobilization
Large-scale mobilization among Iranians abroad is not unprecedented. Over the past 45 years, more than five million Iranians have fled the country as refugees, with an estimated additional two to four million emigrating for other reasons. By these estimates, roughly one in every 15 Iranians now lives outside the country.
The first demonstrations in this latest wave began on January 1, the fifth day of protests inside Iran. From that point through January 16, the number of gatherings increased steadily, with a marked acceleration following internet blackouts and a public call by exiled prince Reza Pahlavi for Iranians abroad to mobilize.
January 16, 10, and 9 saw the highest number of demonstrations worldwide, with 25, 24, and 23 events respectively.
Geographic distribution
More than half of all protests were held in Europe, with cities such as London, Hamburg, Frankfurt, and Stockholm among the most active.
North America accounted for roughly 25 percent of demonstrations, concentrated in cities including Toronto, Montreal, Los Angeles, New York, and Washington DC.
In Oceania, approximately 15 percent of protests took place, primarily in Sydney and Melbourne in Australia, and Auckland and Wellington in New Zealand.
Smaller demonstrations were also reported in cities such as Tbilisi, Yerevan, Tokyo, Seoul, New Delhi, and Istanbul. While Iranian populations in several Asian countries are sizable, organizers noted that legal and political restrictions made public demonstrations more difficult than in Western countries. In Turkey, some Iranian residents reported bans on holding protests.
Organizers and symbols
With limited exceptions, most demonstrations were organized by nationalist and monarchist groups. Participants frequently carried pre-revolution Iranian flags featuring the lion-and-sun emblem, along with images of Reza Pahlavi and slogans echoing those used by protesters inside Iran.
A small number of rallies were organized by left-wing and feminist groups, including a modestly attended event in Toronto on January 4 and a Paris demonstration on January 16.
Clashes, attacks, and arrests
Several incidents of violence were reported during the demonstrations.
On January 10 in Los Angeles, a truck drove toward a gathering of protesters. Police intervention prevented serious injuries.
Six days later, on January 16, three individuals armed with knives attacked demonstrators at another Iranian rally, leaving two people seriously injured.
Clashes and arrests were also reported during protests in London, according to local media and eyewitness accounts.
Largest demonstrations
Official estimates of crowd sizes remain limited. In Toronto, organizers claimed attendance reached as high as 110,000 people, while official figures cited numbers exceeding 10,000.
Aerial footage showed dense crowds marching through snow-covered streets. Some Toronto residents described the event on social media as unprecedented, suggesting attendance exceeded official estimates.
In Cologne, Germany, participation was estimated at around 25,000 people. Large crowds were also reported in Hamburg.
Flag actions at diplomatic sites
Alongside street demonstrations, activists attempted to replace the Islamic Republic’s flag with the pre-1979 lion-and-sun flag at Iranian embassies and consulates worldwide.
On January 9, during a protest outside Iran’s embassy in London, a demonstrator climbed onto the embassy balcony, removed the official flag, and raised the lion-and-sun flag. The action drew strong condemnation from Iranian authorities.
Similar incidents were later reported at Iranian diplomatic missions in Canberra, Vienna, Copenhagen, Rome, Sofia, Oslo, Stockholm, Madrid, Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt, Budapest, and Ljubljana.
From East to West
On January 12 – exactly six years after a state television presenter told protesters to “pack up and leave Iran” if they rejected the government’s vision of society – Iranians demonstrated in cities including Sydney, Melbourne, Bern, Nicosia, Berlin, Genoa, The Hague, Toronto, Hamburg, London, Barcelona, Zurich, Yerevan, Lisbon, Tbilisi, and Athens.
Many demonstrators live in countries with high levels of political freedom and economic stability. Organizers said the protests were intended to signal that, despite living abroad, members of the Iranian diaspora continue to identify closely with events inside Iran.
From east to west, participants said, geography has not severed their ties to the country they left behind.
