Why Iran should take Trump’s threat seriously
Bozorgmehr Sharafedin
Iran International
Within a week of the outbreak of protests in Iran against the Islamic Republic and its rulers, US President Donald Trump weighed in twice with direct comments.
Iran International
Within a week of the outbreak of protests in Iran against the Islamic Republic and its rulers, US President Donald Trump weighed in twice with direct comments.
On the second day of protests, he condemned the Iranian government for firing on demonstrators. On day six, he went further, warning that if the killing of protesters continued, US forces “will come to their rescue.”
This amounts to the fastest and most explicit reaction by an American president to a wave of unrest in Iran in the past 45 years. The question is whether this posture translates into concrete diplomatic steps or credible military pressure—or remains a largely symbolic deterrent message.
In 2009, former US president Barack Obama responded cautiously to Iran’s Green Movement protests. At the time, he had sent a second letter to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and had yet to receive a reply. Obama feared that open support for protesters could undermine the secret backchannel he was attempting to establish with Khamenei to resolve the nuclear standoff.
At the same time, his advisers warned that overt US backing could backfire: protesters might be branded as “foreign agents,” giving the government a pretext to crack down even harder.
Those concerns are far less salient for Trump, at least for now. On one hand, there is currently no meaningful or active diplomatic channel between Tehran and Washington that a sharp US stance could weaken or shut down.
On the other hand, Iranian officials have for years accused protesters of being agents of hostile powers—a charge repeated by Khamenei himself in a recent speech on the unrest—rendering the label largely meaningless. There is little indication that demonstrators now fear either foreign support or accusations of outside ties.
Years later, Obama acknowledged that his cautious approach to the Green Movement had been a mistake, arguing that the United States should support popular, pro-freedom movements wherever they arise. Trump’s swift and blunt reaction suggests he has avoided a similar error.
The Obama administration’s experience also underscores another lesson: firm rhetoric is not enough. In 2012, Obama declared that the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad constituted a US “red line.”
Yet a year later, a sarin gas attack on Eastern Ghouta, a rebel-held suburb to the east of Damascus, killed hundreds of civilians, but the United States did not launch a military strike. Instead, Obama pursued a diplomatic route to remove Syria’s declared chemical weapons stockpiles.
That effort reduced—but did not end—the use of chemical weapons in Syria, and it significantly weakened Obama’s standing, and that of the United States, among Syrian opposition groups.
Trump, by contrast, appears keenly aware that unfulfilled threats erode both his personal authority and the projection of American power. He has acted on threats toward Iran twice: first, with the killing of Qassem Soleimani exactly six years ago, on January 3, 2020, and second, with a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities around 200 days ago.
On Saturday, Trump also followed through on recent threats against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, announcing that the United States had carried out a major operation against Venezuela and detained Maduro and his wife, removing them from the country.
Tehran moved quickly to respond to Trump’s threat against the Islamic Republic’s repressive forces targeting protesters, suggesting that Khamenei is attentive to the speed and clarity of the message and the prospect of its implementation.
“A number of agitated people, enemy mercenaries, had positioned themselves behind bazaar merchants and chanted slogans against Islam, against Iran and against the Islamic Republic,” Ali Khamenei said, according to state media.
“Protest is legitimate, but protest is different from rioting,” Khamenei added. “Officials should speak with protesters. Speaking with a rioter is pointless. Rioters must be put in their place,” he said.
The comments marked Khamenei’s first public response to the latest wave of demonstrations, which have intensified amid economic strain and currency volatility.
Khamenei’s language echoed his stance during earlier nationwide protests, including the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising and demonstrations in November 2019, when security forces used lethal force to suppress unrest.
At least eight protesters have been killed so far after being shot by security forces during the current unrest, according to human rights groups. Independent organizations, including Iran Human Rights Organization, previously documented 551 deaths – among them 68 children – during the 2022 protests.
Currency crisis blamed on ‘the enemy’
Khamenei also attributed the protests to economic grievances while assigning responsibility for the currency crisis to foreign adversaries. “These gatherings were mainly by bazaar merchants,” he said, adding that sharp and unstable exchange-rate swings were “not natural” and were “the work of the enemy.”
He accused unnamed actors of exploiting merchants’ complaints to cause “damage and insecurity,” saying such actions were “unacceptable.”
The remarks came as protesters in several cities have chanted for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic and mainly voiced support for the exiled prince Reza Pahlavi.
Confrontation with ‘the enemy’
Khamenei closed by insisting the Islamic Republic would not retreat. “The enemy will not sit quietly and uses every opportunity,” he said, adding that authorities “were and will be present in the field.”
On Friday, US President Donald Trump warned that if Iranian authorities shoot peaceful protesters, the United States would act to help the people.
"If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go," Trump wrote in a message published on his Truth Social account.
Iranian officials responded with warnings toward the United States and Israel.
A phrase used by US President Donald Trump in support of Iran’s protesters carries a specific military meaning, analysts say, going beyond political rhetoric to signal a state of readiness for action.
International relations scholar Kamran Matin described Trump’s wording as an explicit threat that could be interpreted as readiness for military action.
Matin told Iran International that in Trump’s latest remarks, the scope of the threat appeared to expand beyond Iran’s missile or regional activities to include the government’s violent response to domestic protests.
At the same time, he cautioned that Trump’s personal style must be taken into account, noting that the president is known for shifting positions and statements that allow for multiple interpretations.
However, Matin said that verbal threats do not always translate into action.
Despite signs of military preparedness by the United States and Israel in the region, Matin emphasized that there remains a significant gap between verbal threats, actual military readiness, and the political decision to launch a direct attack.
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