Iran International
US President Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy (NSS) signals a more hands-off approach toward Iran and marks a departure from the outlook of his first term, according to veteran Iran-watcher and analyst Behnam Ben Taleblu.
The 2025 National Security Strategy reflects a narrowing of what Washington now defines as its core national interests, Taleblu said, with Iran mentioned just three times despite being labeled a central threat in Trump’s 2017 strategy.
“There’s a focus on the homeland, the Western Hemisphere, strategic competition with China and getting Europe to do more,” said Taleblu, an analyst for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington DC, adding that Iran is absent from the list of top-tier threats outlined in the document.
The strategy released this month emphasizes reducing US involvement in the Middle East in favor of focusing on great power competition with China, threats in the Western Hemisphere and urging Europe to shoulder more security responsibility.
Iran appears to have slipped down Washington’s priority list following last year’s 12-day war between Israel and Iran, which the United States briefly joined.
“It seems like, at least for the Trump administration, they’re content to take that victory lap,” Taleblu said on Eye for Iran, saying the White House is attempting to declare success and move on following US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The NSS suggests Washington is ready to “turn the page” on a region that has dominated US foreign policy for decades, he added, and it credits Trump’s energy policies, regional diplomacy and limited use of force for creating political space to step back from the Middle East.
US strikes on Iran included the use of 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs carried by B-2 stealth bombers.
While President Trump has said Iran’s major nuclear sites were “obliterated,” US intelligence assessments indicate the program was set back but not completely destroyed, according to officials cited in US media reports.
Iran is believed to possess more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium whose whereabouts remain unknown, and Iranian officials have said they rebuilt its missile capacity and would respond forcefully to any future attack.
Hamid Ziaei, who was detained in June after a check-in appointment with US Immigration and Customs Enforcement in California, had been held at the Torrance County Detention Facility in New Mexico while US officials pursued possible deportation to a third country, his attorneys said.
“The US government provided no evidence that there was any likelihood of Mr. Ziaei’s removal in the reasonable, foreseeable future,” Rachel Landry, a staff attorney at Innovation Law Lab, told the court in Albuquerque, the group said.
US District Court Judge Matthew Garcia said he would issue an order for Ziaei’s release within 24 hours, Landry and fellow attorney Tiffany Wang said.
Court filings on Ziaei’s behalf say he fled Iran after speaking out against the government and entered the United States in San Diego in January 2024. His asylum request was rejected, but he was released in mid-2024 with authorization to work based on concerns he could face persecution if returned to Iran, the filings said.
An ICE officer said in court documents that the agency began vetting Ziaei for removal to a third country in August and initiated procedures to coordinate an interview with a foreign embassy that might accept him.
The US attorney’s office in New Mexico, representing immigration authorities, declined to comment. In filings, immigration authorities cited a 2001 US Supreme Court ruling they said gives the government at least six months to make removal arrangements.
In a December 2 statement submitted to the court, Ziaei said prolonged detention led to anxiety and panic attacks, deferred dental treatment for infections, and weight and muscle loss that could affect his future income as an athlete.
The case comes as Iran’s foreign ministry has confirmed recent US detentions and deportations of Iranian nationals under tightened immigration enforcement, including groups returned to Iran via transit countries.
“Iran may be weakened, but it is down and not out,” Taleblu added.
The strategy document implies that major regional crises — including the Gaza war, the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon, Houthi attacks from Yemen and instability in post-Assad Syria — are either resolved or on track toward resolution.
The document does not appear to assess that Iran could strongly reverse recent setbacks to its nuclear program and its so-called Axis of Resistance coalition.
While Taleblu credited the Trump administration for reviving elements of its maximum pressure campaign of sanctions, he criticized what he called gaps. Iranian oil exports have reached record highs, and the administration has not issued a single new human rights designation related to Iran in 2025.
“While the regime is threatening the life of this very president and the first family, it is beyond me to be thinking about peace and prosperity without a clear strategy to contain Iran further,” Taleblu said, “There is a lot of room for improvement when I look at both this document and the administration’s track record this year.”
