US and Israeli attacks on Iran nuclear in June achieved tactical wins but might ultimately backfire in unforeseen way, UAE-based newspaper The National quoted former US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley as saying.
“Things that might succeed in the short term may have very different consequences long term,” the paper quoted Malley, who served under US President Donald Trump's predecessor Joe Biden, as saying.
The region’s history, he added, is “a whole list of military 'successes'” that later backfired.
Malley pointed to Israel’s military actions in the region, including attacks in Beirut and against the Palestine Liberation Organization in Tunis, as well as the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and the American intervention in Lebanon.
He said these supposed short-term “victories” often “end up boomeranging,” with consequences that included the rise of Osama bin Laden, stronger Iranian influence in Iraq, the Taliban’s return to power and the emergence of Hezbollah.
Malley told the newspaper that Israeli and US attacks on Iran in June revealed the extent of Israeli access to Iranian airspace and intelligence related to Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs.
The attacks, he said, showed that “Israel had supremacy over Iranian airspace and extraordinary intelligence” regarding Iranian personnel and facilities.
That assessment could affect Tehran’s calculations if it considers rebuilding parts of its nuclear program, Malley said.
“If Iran chooses to restore or resume its nuclear program, it’s going to have to think many times, because it knows that Israel is watching and the US is watching,” he said.
Malley said the June strikes “did set back Iran’s nuclear program,” though “it didn’t obliterate it in the way that President Trump said,” the report added.
Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, but Israel and Western countries doubt its intentions. Washington has demanded Tehran end all domestic enrichment.
Diplomatic breakthrough or further escalation?
On the outlook for US–Iran relations, Malley said he could imagine either further military escalation or a diplomatic breakthrough under President Trump.
“I wouldn’t be surprised” by renewed US–Israeli strikes, Malley was quoted as saying, but he added that he “wouldn’t be shocked” if Washington and Tehran reached an understanding that halted Iranian enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief and restored UN inspections.
Malley warned that deep mistrust in Tehran has made negotiations more difficult, telling the newspaper that Iranian leaders believe Trump “betrayed them not once, not twice, but three times.”
US talks with Tehran over its disputed nuclear program began earlier this year with a 60-day ultimatum. On the 61st day, June 13, Israel launched a surprise military campaign which was capped with US strikes on June 22 targeting key nuclear sites in Esfahan, Natanz and Fordow.
