US and Israeli attacks on Iran nuclear in June achieved tactical wins but might ultimately backfire in unforeseen way, UAE-based newspaper The National quoted former US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley as saying.
“Things that might succeed in the short term may have very different consequences long term,” the paper quoted Malley, who served under US President Donald Trump's predecessor Joe Biden, as saying.
The region’s history, he added, is “a whole list of military 'successes'” that later backfired.
Malley pointed to Israel’s military actions in the region, including attacks in Beirut and against the Palestine Liberation Organization in Tunis, as well as the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and the American intervention in Lebanon.
He said these supposed short-term “victories” often “end up boomeranging,” with consequences that included the rise of Osama bin Laden, stronger Iranian influence in Iraq, the Taliban’s return to power and the emergence of Hezbollah.
Malley told the newspaper that Israeli and US attacks on Iran in June revealed the extent of Israeli access to Iranian airspace and intelligence related to Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs.
The attacks, he said, showed that “Israel had supremacy over Iranian airspace and extraordinary intelligence” regarding Iranian personnel and facilities.
That assessment could affect Tehran’s calculations if it considers rebuilding parts of its nuclear program, Malley said.
“If Iran chooses to restore or resume its nuclear program, it’s going to have to think many times, because it knows that Israel is watching and the US is watching,” he said.
Malley said the June strikes “did set back Iran’s nuclear program,” though “it didn’t obliterate it in the way that President Trump said,” the report added.
Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, but Israel and Western countries doubt its intentions. Washington has demanded Tehran end all domestic enrichment.
Diplomatic breakthrough or further escalation?
On the outlook for US–Iran relations, Malley said he could imagine either further military escalation or a diplomatic breakthrough under President Trump.
“I wouldn’t be surprised” by renewed US–Israeli strikes, Malley was quoted as saying, but he added that he “wouldn’t be shocked” if Washington and Tehran reached an understanding that halted Iranian enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief and restored UN inspections.
Malley warned that deep mistrust in Tehran has made negotiations more difficult, telling the newspaper that Iranian leaders believe Trump “betrayed them not once, not twice, but three times.”
US talks with Tehran over its disputed nuclear program began earlier this year with a 60-day ultimatum. On the 61st day, June 13, Israel launched a surprise military campaign which was capped with US strikes on June 22 targeting key nuclear sites in Esfahan, Natanz and Fordow.
Mehdi Abbasi told the Didban-e Iran news site that “the issue is not who may have done this, but that all assumptions that could lead to harm must be identified.”
Without naming Israel, he said “Experience has shown that with the relevant civil-defence tests, it is possible to thoroughly examine such equipment. And since there is always a possibility that our information could be transmitted abroad, we must consider the most dangerous scenarios and prepare ourselves to confront them.”
He said foreign devices used in urban monitoring systems “must pass multiple security filters” and that Tehran should minimize reliance on imported technology.
Abbasi said authorities should prioritize domestic production of traffic-camera systems, adding, “In a world where countries are either competing or hostile, we must strengthen our internal capabilities first.”
He also said the municipality “should have exercised greater oversight” of the equipment and warned that any technology with internet connectivity must undergo cybersecurity testing by Iran’s civil-defense units.
Iranian officials have not released technical details of the alleged data breach, but the issue has resurfaced repeatedly among senior figures following the 12-day war with Israel.
In September, a senior lawmaker claimed that Israel learned the location of a June 16 meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council through the country’s urban surveillance network.
“All the city cameras at our intersections are in the hands of Israel,” said Mahmoud Nabavian, a member of parliament’s national security committee. “Everything on the internet is in their hands – meaning that if we move, they find out.”
Iranian media reported that the meeting – attended by the heads of the country’s three branches of power – was struck by six bombs or missiles, and that President Masoud Pezeshkian and several other officials suffered minor leg injuries while trying to escape.
The report said the groups adapted after tighter airport controls in Lebanon, the collapse of long-standing routes through Syria and the killing of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operatives involved in logistics.
Ynet, citing the US Treasury Department, said Iran has transferred roughly $1 billion to Hezbollah since the start of the year, funding that Washington says is used to rebuild the group’s capabilities.
New smuggling channels have increasingly relied on Turkey and Iraq, as well as maritime shipments and cash-based businesses, according to Ynet.
Other methods described in the report include the use of gold transfers, cryptocurrency channels, and shipping components in parts for later assembly in Lebanon.
The report also said Hezbollah has sought to expand local production based on Iranian expertise, reducing dependence on vulnerable cross-border routes.
A US delegation visiting Beirut last week urged Lebanon's leadership to curb financing networks and strengthen oversight of money-exchange agencies.
Analysts quoted by Ynet said they expect Iran to continue supporting Hezbollah’s reconstruction to maintain its political influence within Lebanon’s Shi’ite community.
