Tehran hardliners pose as president's protector against moderate allies

Nearly 40 million Iranians now live below the relative poverty line, according to labor officials, including seven million in absolute poverty—people who would still face malnutrition even if they spent all their income on food.

Bread provides more than 40% of daily calories for low-income families, yet prices of bread and cereals, set by the government, have almost doubled in a year.

Meanwhile, the real dollar value of workers’ wages has collapsed from about $500 in 2015 to less than $160 today.

“The gap between the rich and the poor is now so wide that the middle class is effectively disappearing,” economist Ali Ghanbari told moderate outlet Fararu.

‘National crisis’

Faramarz Toufighi of the Labour Councils told ILNA that real food inflation surpassed 90% in October, warning that the minimum wage covers “not even one-third of workers’ basic living costs.”

The business site Eghtesad24 highlighted the figure and amplified the alarm, writing that a misstep in setting next year’s wages could trigger “a national crisis.”

Economist Hossein Raghfar told Etemad that even the most optimistic wage proposals—up to a 35% rise—will do nothing to restore purchasing power.

“For more than three decades, wage hikes have lagged behind inflation,” he said. “Workers and public employees are effectively subsidizing the state by earning less than the cost of living.”

Raghfar criticised the government for claiming it lacks funds for higher wages while “injecting vast sums into the stock market, spending foreign currency reserves on luxury imports, and sparing large corporations from fair taxes.”

‘Fighting for survival’

The financial daily Eghtesad News warned that the official poverty line “has become a political slogan,” noting that people judge reality by supermarket prices, rent, and school fees—not by government claims.

Labour expert Hamid Haj-Esmaeili told the paper that the average wage is roughly 170 million rials (about $155), while the average household now needs at least three times that to get by.

Ali Dehghan-Kia, head of the Tehran Retired Workers’ Association, told Etemad that the wage–inflation gap has stripped families of purchasing power.

Retirees, he said, face “a survival crisis” in food, housing and healthcare. “If this continues, the social consequences will be severe.”

Chronic corruption

Raghfar has long warned of what he calls the “São Paulo-ization” of Iran’s economy—extreme wealth concentrated in a small elite while the majority sink deeper into poverty. He told Khabar Online this week that rising poverty is inseparable from corruption in the banking sector.

The collapse of Ayandeh Bank, absorbed into a state entity after going insolvent, is “just the beginning,” he said, predicting similar outcomes for other private banks.

Britain sanctioned Ayandeh’s owner, Ali Ansari, in October for allegedly financing the Revolutionary Guards. Foreign media estimate his London property holdings at about the same value as Iran’s entire annual anti-poverty budget—roughly $180 million.

“What makes this case more than personal … is the staggering contrast between a banker’s frozen wealth in London and the structural poverty inside Iran,” the labour news agency IONA wrote in an editorial.

“When a nation’s anti-poverty budget equals one man’s assets, the real question is no longer ‘where the money came from’ but ‘what kind of system made this possible.’”

The pressure comes amid rising inflation, stagnant growth and deepening shortages of energy and water that have strained public patience.

Experts warn the situation could deteriorate further next year, when the full impact of renewed UN sanctions triggered by European powers is expected to hit Iran’s already fragile economy.

Economist Morteza Afghah told the moderate outlet Fararu on November 12 that Pezeshkian’s call for eight-percent annual growth—echoed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—was “unattainable even without the war with Israel and Europe’s snapback sanctions.”

He said Iran’s fifth development plan had already fallen far behind schedule and criticized Pezeshkian for repeatedly insisting that “major economic problems should be solved” without offering specifics.

“Which of the people’s problems can be solved by repeating that over and over?” he asked.

'Wasteful'

Conservative commentator Vahid Yaminpour made a similar point in a televised debate with a member of Pezeshkian’s media team, saying the president had invoked the country’s economic malaise nine times in less than a week without offering a semblance of a solution.

One such instance came earlier that day, when Pezeshkian criticized the large annual budgets allocated to organizations he said served no useful purpose.

“Start cutting those budgets from my own office,” he told lawmakers, noting that the presidential office employs nearly 4,000 staff, though he believes it could function with 400.

Economist Mehdi Pazouki urged the president to move beyond rhetoric and impose discipline on government spending, highlighting the proliferation of parallel bodies performing overlapping tasks.

“The irregular expansion of the government is one of the main reasons for the rising inflation rate,” he told Fararu. “Without solving this problem, it will be too difficult to overcome inflation.”

Pazouki also ridiculed Pezeshkian’s pledge to deliver a “budget without deficit,” calling the assertion a “joke.”

'Unaware'

Last month, even the conservative establishment daily Jomhouri Eslami advised the president: “Cut off the budget of organizations that have no achievements. The only thing they do is act like devoted disciples of those who fund them.”

Such criticism has been leveled at every administration, and Pezeshkian appears no more capable—or willing—than his predecessors to confront it. But he is also developing a growing PR problem.

During Pezeshkian’s parliament address on Tuesday, speaker—and elections rival—Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told the president that his economy minister Ahmad Meydari and his spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani did not grasp basic economic concepts.

Pezeshkian admitted he was unaware of what his own spokesperson had told the nation.

For decades, Iran’s Public Culture Council and the National Foundation for Islamic-Iranian Fashion and Clothing have strictly overseen what they call “chaste attire.”

Tehran held fashion events in 2014 and 2015, where the designs were limited to “modest fashion”—long coats, scarves and loose forms approved by authorities. No later editions followed the events due to the official denial of permits.

This year’s revival of Tehran Fashion Week was folded into Tehran Design Week, a government-approved initiative showcasing design, furniture and art. Yet despite official oversight, photos and videos showed a strikingly freer atmosphere.

Some female models appeared at the events without headscarves, wearing tight-fitting western-style outfits, and many visitors ignored the mandatory hijab altogether. Women were seen in some social media videos walking bareheaded through the galleries in jeans and dresses.

The contrast is shocking to conservatives who have long treated fashion as a state-controlled domain. Yet for many Iranians, it simply reflects what the streets already look like after nearly two years of weakening hijab enforcement.

Private runways and changing tastes

Bita, a Tehran resident, told Iran International that private fashion shows have quietly flourished in major cities in the past two decades. “They are often underground, mixed-gender, and without hijab,” she said. “The clothes are usually exclusive and extremely expensive—far beyond what ordinary people could afford.”

The social shift since 2022, she added, has reshaped the industry itself and these private fashion events.

“The hijab barely exists anymore in many places,” she said. “Designers who once made luxury scarves and manteaux have turned to new lines because their former clients—the wealthy women who followed fashion—have mostly abandoned the hijab. Only a small group of very rich religious women still buy such expensive clothing, and their taste is totally different.”

Bita said she saw online ads for the Design Week fashion section, held at a well-known Tehran gallery, though she didn’t attend. “But my friends who went say it largely looked like seriously testing limits.”

Cultural paradox

Earlier this year, several clothing sellers at Tehran’s Grand Bazaar were prosecuted for hosting a women’s fashion show in which models appeared without scarves or with hair visible on the red carpet. Officials accused them of “violating public morality”, and their shops were shut down.

Independent news website Rouydad24 published a commentary published an analysis arguing that clothing in Iran has become not just a cultural or social question but a political and even security issue.

“In a country where just a few years ago shop mannequins were banned, stores were closed for selling open-front manteaux, and a small fashion show at the Bazaar caused a scandal," the commentary pondered, "how can Fashion Week possibly align with the realities of society?”

MP Mojtaba Yousefi, who represents Ahvaz, the city where the incident occurred this week, said officials “must face legal consequences” if found negligent, blaming what he described as the system’s deeper rot.

“Just as they can secure consultancy jobs in petrochemical and oil companies for their friends and family members,” the member of parliament from the oil-rich province said, “they should also try to find work for the unemployed youth of Hoveyzeh, Bagh-e Malek, Susangerd and Khuzestan.”

“Some ministers and vice-presidents receive salaries from two positions—hundreds of millions of tomans—so if they can arrange that, surely they can create jobs for our jobless young people,” he added.

Yousefi’s comments came amid mounting anger over the death of Ahmad Baledi, who suffered burns to 70 percent of his body and died Tuesday at Ahvaz’s Taleghani Hospital.

Witnesses said municipal agents had arrived without warning at the family’s kiosk in Zeytoon Park. His father told the reformist Ham-Mihan newspaper that when he begged for an extension, one official mocked his son—“Should I give you a lighter? Matches?”—moments before Ahmad set himself ablaze.

Enquiry

Ahvaz’s prosecutor later said the municipality had acted “unilaterally and at an inappropriate time,” suspending the district mayor and the municipal enforcement chief.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has ordered an investigation and sent condolences to the family.

The tragedy has fueled wider outrage over joblessness and inequality in Iran’s oil-rich southwest, where many rely on informal work to survive.

Another Ahvaz lawmaker, Mohammad Amiri, blamed “personal connections rather than regulations” for the city’s chronic mismanagement.

Authorities have since arrested several citizens who wrote about the case online and restricted access to the burn hospital, signaling a desire to contain unrest. But Yousefi’s unusually blunt remarks suggest growing unease within Iran’s conservative establishment itself.

The controversy began when a short video produced to mark the wedding of Malavan football club captain Saeed Karimi — showing the couple in his club’s uniform in romantic football-themed scenes at an empty stadium — was leaked on social media.

The case again thrusts women and public morality into the public discourse of the nearly fifty-year-old Islamic theocracy even after authorities this year backed off enforcing strict veiling laws in a likely bid to avoid protests.

Karimi's wife Zahra appeared variously in a the shorts and t-shirt of a football uniform and briefly wearing a baseball cap but at other times without the theocracy's mandatory Islamic head covering. In one brief scene the pair tumble into bed laughing.

The footballer said the video had been shared without his and his wife’s consent and asked users to delete it.

'What next?'

However, state TV presenter Rasoul Mehrabani devoted several minutes of live airtime to accusing the couple's video, calling it shameful, indecent disgraceful.

"If we do not stop this, if we do not stop these indecencies, what will happen tomorrow?" he said, inviting authorities to intervene.

Shortly after, judiciary-affiliated outlet Mizan, quoted provincial prosecutor Seyed Kamaleddin Mousavi as saying they had opened a case in connection with the circulation of a “video contrary to public decency” attributed to a Malavan player.

He said initial investigations showed the clip had been filmed in the northern city of Sari and released by one of the individuals involved in filming it.

Mousavi added that the player appeared before judicial authorities to file a complaint over the unauthorized publication, and that the case has since been transferred to the another prosecutor’s office for further review.

Federation reaction

Amid the controversy, the Ethics Committee of the Football Federation of the Islamic Republic of Iran announced on Tuesday that Karimi had been summoned for questioning.

The committee, a judicial body within the federation labelled by critics the “morality police of football,” has previously taken action against players who made critical comments about political or social issues.

This included those who expressed solidarity with protesters during the nationwide protests sparked by the death in morality police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in September 2022. Authorities quashed the demonstrations with deadly force.

Support for Karimi

Iranian social media users largely defended Karimi, calling the clip harmless and saying the outrage from state TV and hardline media was misplaced.

The controversy also sparked accusations of double standards, as users compared the reaction to Karimi’s video with the official silence when a video of the wedding of a top security official's daughter leaked last month.

Ali Shamkhani is a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the footage showed his daughter without a hijab and in a Western-style white wedding dress with a plunging neckline.

“Why is Saeed Karimi’s video criminal, but not Shamkhani’s daughter’s?” one user wrote — a question that quickly spread across social media. Another highlighted that Karimi’s wife’s outfit was “far more modest,” while one joked, “If she had worn longer socks or a hat, even the most zealous critics would have stayed quiet.”

'People vs. state'

Fellow footballers also showed support for Karimi and his wife in posts on Instagram.

According to Tehran-based Etemad daily, Mehrabani’s six-minute tirade was filled with vulgar language that many described as “offensive and disgusting.” The paper said his comments drew far more attention to the clip, which had initially gone largely unnoticed.

Etemad said that the video was no different from countless romantic couple shoots posted on Instagram, questioning the mindset behind the presenter’s reaction.

Ehsan Akbari, sports editor at Iran International said the episode revealed a divide between the public and the Islamic Republic’s mindset.

“This (public support for Karimi) shows how much society is standing against the mindset of the Islamic Republic,” he said. “The government have one opinion, but society has another.”

Akbari added that the contrast in public reactions to the two videos reflected both trust and authenticity.

“People criticized Shamkhani but support Saeed Karimi because Shamkhani has always presented himself as an Islamic figure and tried to impose his ideas on others, while behind the scenes behaving differently,” he said. “But Saeed Karimi reflects the reality of society — he’s just like ordinary people. Shamkhani on the other hand represents the hypocrisy of the Islamic Republic.”

'Double standard'

Sports journalist Raha Poubakhsh says the difference in how state media handled the two cases revealed a broader political motive.

“State media defended Shamkhani by portraying him as a victim, saying the video had been published without permission and that people’s privacy should be respected,” she said. “But when a private video of a football player was leaked, the situation was entirely different."

"This difference in approach shows that the issue is not about morality or justice, but about control and the exercise of power,” she added.

“In the Islamic Republic, the state itself decides what is considered ‘immoral’ — a label it only applies when the person in question is not in a position of power or part of the establishment.”

Malavan Football club files complaint

Malavan Football Club issued a statement condemning Mehrabani’s remarks as “disgusting and insulting,” accusing the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) of “spreading hatred” to attract attention. The club demanded an official apology from state TV and said it had filed a formal complaint against the presenter.

“The dignity and reputation of our members are red lines,” the statement said. “Malavan expects the IRIB to clearly and publicly apologize to the player, the club, and the people of Bandar Anzali and Gilan province.”

The club added that it would not remain silent “when the name of Malavan or human dignity is disrespected,” reaffirming what it described as its half-century tradition of respect, passion and community spirit.

Progressive legacy

Malavan has a reputation as one of Iran’s most socially progressive football clubs.

In another example, the club shared a photo on its official Instagram page in October showing player Abouzar Safarzadeh’s wife kissing him on the forehead after he scored in a Persian Gulf League match — a move seen as breaking the clerical establishment’s social taboos on public displays of affection.

“Malavan was among the first Iranian teams after the (1979 Islamic) revolution to feature women in the unveiling of its official kits,” Akbari, the sports editor, said.

“Women have long had a presence in its matches and media, and it has one of the oldest women’s football teams in the country," he said. "The fact that Karimi’s wife appeared on the pitch in the club’s kit resonated because it felt real and authentic."