Former top US officials on Mideast doubt imminent Iran-Israel war

Videos show the ceremony in Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) square, where the statue group was unveiled as part of campaign dubbed by officials “Kneel before Iran."

"The Valerian statue reflects a historical truth that Iran has been a land of resistance throughout history," said Mehdi Mazhabi, head of Tehran's Municipal Beautification Organization. "By implementing this plan in Enghelab Square, we aim to forge a bond between this land's glorious past and its hopeful present."

Following a ceasefire which ended a punishing 12-day war with Israel in June, Iranian officials moved to invoke nationalism and glorifying ancient history of Iran to promote unity. Symbols of the pre-Islamic past had previously been shunned by the theocracy.

Days after the conflict, a mural set up in Vanak square in Tehran depicting Arash the archer firing arrows alongside modern ballistic missiles shot at Israel.

The new statue immortalizes the 260 AD Battle of Edessa, where the second king of the Sassanid Empire Shapur I, 240–270 AD, decisively defeated Roman forces and captured Valerian. The defeat was an unprecedented catastrophe for Rome.

Shapur, son of Ardashir I, expanded Persian territory and clashing repeatedly with the empire that spanned Europe, North Africa and parts of the Middle East. Ancient reliefs at Naqsh-e Rostam show him on horseback, Valerian humbled beneath.

Valerian, 253–260 AD, co-emperor with his son Gallienus, sought to stabilize Rome's eastern frontier.

From murals of Cyrus the Great to patriotic songs at Shi'ite mourning ceremonies, Tehran is now leaning into pre-Islamic imagery it once viewed as anathema.

The plot to assassinate ambassador Einat Kranz-Neiger began at the end of 2024, Axios cited a source with knowledge of the matter as saying, and was led by a member of the IRGC Quds Force's secretive Unit 11000.

The operative, according to the source, spent several years overseeing agents from Iran's embassy in Venezuela.

"The plot was contained and does not pose a current threat," the outlet quoted a US official as saying.

"This is just the latest in a long history of assassination attempts by Iran around the world targeting diplomats, journalists, dissidents, and anyone who disagrees with them — something that should deeply concern every country where there is an Iranian presence," the US official added, according to Axios.

Israel and Iran have been arch-enemies since the 1979 Islamic Revolution made enmity to the Jewish State a key element of state ideology.

Their confrontation had mostly been contained to indirect fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Islamist armed groups in the Middle East including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the occupied Palestinian territories.

The October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel led by Hamas helped propel the conflict into a direct showdown which culminated in a 12-day war in June.

Israel launched an air strike on Iran's embassy in Damascus in April 2024 killing several senior IRGC personnel and was widely believed to have carried out the assassination of Hamas senior official Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July last year.

A US federal court last week handed out lengthy sentences to two men convicted of seeking to kill US-based Iranian dissident Masih Alinejad in a plot prosecutors said was orchestrated by the IRGC.

Israel, Axios added, thanked Mexico for foiling the plot.

"The Israeli intelligence and security community will continue to work tirelessly, in full cooperation with security and intelligence agencies around the world, to thwart terror threats from Iran and its proxies against Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide," Axios quoted Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oren Marmorstein as saying.

The paper described the phenomenon as “a quiet but persistent trend” that has taken root across the capital. Certain late-night hangouts now, it said, serve as meeting points for affluent middle-aged and older men and women who approach younger partners seeking either short-term encounters or longer-term financial arrangements.

“I accepted to talk because I want others to know that if they enter such relationships, they might later face disappointment or worse consequences and lose their youth for money,” said Bardya, a 22-year-old university student quoted by the paper.

He described his relationship with a 52-year-old divorced woman named Nazanin as beginning with a single online message.

Bardya now visits Nazanin’s home every few days at her request and sometimes stays for several nights.

Nazanin, who also spoke to Haft-e Sobh, said she saw nothing shameful in the arrangement. “I provide for him financially -- his education, a good car, a nice home, luxury trips -- I spend money on him. But let’s be honest, this isn’t love, it’s a deal.”

These encounters, according to the report, often occur along upscale streets and squares where luxury cars gather near midnight. Agreements range from one-night arrangements worth a few million rials to ongoing relationships in which the older partner provides steady financial support. Some business owners, the paper added, hire younger men and women while simultaneously acting as “sugar patrons.”

A symptom of deeper social breakdown

The spread of such relationships reflects the failure of Iran’s main institutions -- economic, political, religious, educational, and social -- to maintain balance and stability, Sociologist Alireza Sharifi Yazdi told Haft-e Sobh.

“When the economic and political systems fail to perform their duties, inequality widens, insecurity rises, and social disorders begin,” he said.

High unemployment, inflation, and falling marriage rates, he added, have pushed many young people into what he called “compulsory singleness,” while the wealthy exploit their vulnerability through money and influence.

“It’s a shortcut to dreams -- luxury, travel, comfort -- but it ends in emotional exhaustion and loss of self-worth.”

Emotional cost and threat to family life

Such relationships, Sharifi warned, often lead to depression and disillusionment among young people once the initial material benefits fade.

“They begin to feel emotionally enslaved,” he said, adding that the trend also weakens the foundation of marriage and family life. “When expectations from relationships become transactional, genuine partnerships lose meaning.”

Reversing the trend, the Haft-e Sobh concluded, requires addressing its economic roots -- unemployment, inflation, and lack of affordable housing -- while promoting education about healthy relationships. Without reform, it warned, “Iran risks seeing its family structures eroded by the quiet normalization of money-for-affection relationships.”

Between March to early November, total cinema revenues reached 13.2 trillion rials (about $12.2 million), with 16.65 million tickets sold. The figures mark a nearly 20 percent decline in attendance compared with the same period last year, when 20 million people went to theaters.

Economic hardship hits entertainment spending

Film industry observers attribute the downturn to worsening economic and social conditions, as well as public fatigue with repetitive film genres. The news outlet Didban Iran reported that “the 12-day Iran-Israel war and the country’s social climate directly affected audience turnout and cinema revenues.”

Years of soaring inflation and stagnation have sharply reduced the share of entertainment -- including travel and cinema -- in Iranian household budgets. Many families now prioritize basic necessities over leisure activities as the cost of living continues to climb.

Media reports in recent months have pointed to steep increases in food and consumer prices, with the shrinking household table becoming a widely used expression of hardship. The Statistical Center of Iran’s latest data showed broad-based inflation in essential goods and the government’s failure to control rising prices, fueling widespread economic anxiety.

Warnings of deeper economic distress

Economists warn that the country could face severe stagflation if inflationary pressures persist. On November 1, an Iranian economist said that if President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration fails to stabilize the economy and calm political tensions, inflation could exceed 60 percent by the end of the year.

With inflation approaching 50 percent on a year-on-year basis, the decline in cinema attendance has become another indicator of how deeply economic hardship is reshaping everyday life.

The message was delivered to Iraqi officials as political negotiations over the formation of a new cabinet intensified ahead of the November 11 parliamentary elections, the source said.

“If any ministry is given to militias affiliated with Iran, the United States will refuse to recognize the government.”

Disputes over presidency and premiership

Responding to comments by some Sunni leaders about the presidency, the source said Shiite and Kurdish blocs had already agreed that the post would go to the Kurds, with Tehran also approving the arrangement. However, he said the possibility of appointing a Sunni figure as prime minister “would raise concern in Tehran.”

All Shiite factions, according to the source, oppose another term for Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as prime minister, though Mark Safaya, US President Donald Trump’s representative for Iraq, “has a personal relationship with Sudani and may influence the process.”

Unlike in previous election cycles, the source added, the Islamic Republic “no longer holds the same sway” in deciding Iraq’s leadership. “This time, the United States and European countries are far more determined to shape the outcome.”

Election dynamics and foreign pressure

Reuters reported on November 4 that Sudani has entered the campaign with growing public support, seeking to portray himself as capable of maintaining balanced ties with both Washington and Tehran. The 55-year-old prime minister has focused his campaign on improving public services and hopes to secure the largest bloc in parliament.

As the country moves toward the vote, Sudani’s government faces mounting US pressure to curb Iran-backed militias.

Sudani has said previously that disarming these militias would be impossible as long as the US-led coalition remains in Iraq.

Iran supports Iraqi groups through financing, training, and arms, primarily focusing on Shia militias that are often integrated into the official Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). This support helps groups like the Badr Organization and Kata'ib Hezbollah exert military and political influence, though some factions like Harakat Hezbollah Al-Nujaba have focused more on military operations. The support allows Iran to pursue its regional objectives, gain influence, and destabilize Iraqi politics while coordinating attacks against US forces.