Nearly 22,000 Iranian gas centrifuges at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan were knocked out in June strikes, leaving “no identifiable route” to weapon-grade output at those plants, the Institute for Science and International Security said citing the UN nuclear watchdog’s latest reports.
In a paper assessing the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) September quarterly reports, ISIS said the attacks “destroyed or made inoperative all of Iran’s installed centrifuges… at Iran’s three enrichment sites,” and severely damaged Iran’s ability to manufacture centrifuges and uranium hexafluoride feedstock.
The group, led by nuclear expert David Albright, added that Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan held enriched uranium stocks before the strikes, but the IAEA has lost on-site visibility since inspectors withdrew for safety reasons in late June and Iran later suspended cooperation.
The IAEA’s reporting showed Iran’s stock of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235 reached 440.9 kg (uranium mass) on the eve of the June 13 bombardment, with additional inventories of 20%, 5% and up to 2% material also on hand.
The agency said the 60% stockpile -- considered highly enriched uranium -- requires verification every 30 days under standard safeguards practice and that “its verification… is overdue” because inspectors have not had access for more than two and a half months.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told the Agency’s Board of Governors on Monday that Iran’s new domestic law curbing access “may create obligations domestically,” but “it cannot do so for the IAEA.”
He added that Iran’s NPT safeguards agreement remains in force and that inspection work must fully resume without delay. He said technical talks in Tehran and Vienna had made headway toward a practical arrangement, adding: “It is my sincere hope that within the next few days, it will be possible to come to a successful conclusion.”
ISIS said the IAEA reported Iran was in the process of declaring a new Isfahan Fuel Enrichment Plant (IFEP) at the Nuclear Reactors Fuel Company site before the war.
The think tank assessed the IFEP to be inside Esfahan’s mountain tunnel complex and said US strikes destroyed tunnel entrances and ventilation systems; while Iran has restored limited access to at least one portal, the plant “does not appear to be ready for operations.”
The IAEA planned a design-information visit on June 13 but canceled it as the attacks began.
Before the strikes, the IAEA counted “125 full-sized cascades” at the three declared enrichment plants, totaling more than 20,000 IR-1, IR-2m, IR-4 and IR-6 machines. ISIS estimated the installed total was closer to 22,000, including about 14,700 advanced centrifuges.
Based on satellite imagery cited by the IAEA, Fordow “suffered very significant damage,” Natanz’s underground halls were “extensively damaged,” and the above-ground pilot plant at Natanz was destroyed early in the conflict, ISIS said.
Since June 13, the IAEA said it has received no nuclear-material accountancy reports, no updated design information questionnaires, and has had no access to safeguarded sites other than the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
It reported a “loss of continuity of knowledge” over inventories of enriched uranium, as well as over centrifuge and heavy-water production since Iran halted JCPOA-related monitoring in 2021.
Grossi said only standard measures under Iran’s Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement were under discussion, because Tehran is not applying the Additional Protocol.
He also rejected claims that IAEA data had enabled attacks on Iranian facilities, calling such allegations an “absurd narrative,” and reiterated that the agency does not share confidential inspection information with any state.
European powers have moved to reimpose UN sanctions via the “snapback” mechanism, while Tehran has demanded international condemnation of the strikes on its nuclear sites.
In a video interview, Safavi, a political science professor at Tehran University, repeatedly referred to the possibility of Khamenei’s killing, describing such scenarios as “disruptive and hostile acts” that Israel might pursue independently of US approval.
“If the issue of access to the number one or number two person in the country arises, they will carry it out at any cost, even at the risk of war,” Safavi said. “If Israel does this without America’s permission, the US will face a fait accompli, and Iran will be forced to think through its response.”
Former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said last week that eliminating Khamenei should be part of Israel’s plan in any future conflict. Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Israel Katz, have also issued warnings aimed at the Supreme Leader, amid heightened rhetoric between Tehran and Tel Aviv following their 12-day war in June.
Safavi said US President Donald Trump had once claimed he stopped Israeli plans to target Khamenei during the June conflict. Trump later boasted he had “saved” the Iranian leader from what he called a “very disgraceful and humiliating death.”
While Safavi said war with Israel remained possible, he warned of what he called a more dangerous scenario of “gradual humiliation and erosion” if Iran did not respond to escalating threats.
“The worst scenario is not war. The worst scenario is being worn down,” he said.
Safavi also voiced rare criticism of Khamenei’s long-held stance on Washington, urging Iran to pursue what he called “comprehensive negotiations” with the United States that go beyond uranium enrichment.
“The nuclear deal was a single-issue agreement, and that is why it failed,” he said. “We need comprehensive talks with America.”
Rahim-Safavi, his father and Khamenei’s longtime military adviser, has himself said another war with Israel may be inevitable, but could be the last. “We soldiers always plan for the worst-case scenario,” he said in August.
South Korea’s draft is not an initiative of its own, but a legal requirement under Resolution 2231 which endorsed the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and is due to expire on October 18.
According to Resolution 2231, sanctions will automatically return unless the Council votes to keep them lifted. That is why the Council president must first table a resolution to “permanently lift” sanctions as its failure is what triggers the re-imposition.
The procedural step comes as part of the so-called “snapback” mechanism triggered by Britain, France, and Germany late last month, after they accused Tehran of violating its commitments under the deal.
The Security Council must vote by late September on whether to make sanctions relief permanent. For the resolution to pass, it would need at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes from the five permanent members: the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and China.
The adoption of the South Korean resolution is regarded as highly unlikely, as Washington and its European allies remain adamant that Tehran has failed to live up to its obligations, Reuters reported.
As no member tabled a resolution within ten days of the process being launched, it fell to South Korea, as Council president for September, to do so. Seoul’s move on Monday fulfills that requirement, though a date for the vote has not yet been set.
Britain, France, and Germany are still pressing Iran to meet three conditions before the end of the month, which could allow for a temporary delay in sanctions snapback and create space for new negotiations.
Russia and China
Moscow and Beijing have taken a different approach. Late last month, they finalized their own draft resolution calling for a six-month extension of the nuclear deal, urging all parties to return to negotiations.
The resolution of extension of sanctions is expected to be put to vote once Tehran and European powers reach an agreement.
Should Russia and China move first, their text would almost certainly face a veto from the United States, France, or Britain.
