Iran International
Iran’s economy is reeling from an acute labor shortage following the mass deportation of undocumented Afghan migrants, with key industries such as construction and agriculture struggling to function.
For decades, Afghans have formed the backbone of Iran’s low-wage workforce, filling jobs few Iranians were willing to take.
Their sudden absence now threatens both growth and jobs.
Conservative economist Mohammad-Hossein Mesbah called the push to send Afghans home “economic suicide.”
“Abbasabad industrial town [south of Tehran] was almost entirely closed today,” he posted on X. “Why? Shortage of labor. Job ads everywhere … Not a single worker to be found.”
From open borders to expulsions
Before the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, the Afghan population in Iran rarely exceeded two million, including about 780,000 with official refugee status. Under former President Ebrahim Raisi’s “open borders” policy, that number surged to more than seven million.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has since reversed course under public pressure.
Following Iran’s recent 12-day conflict with Israel, the government accelerated the deportation of undocumented Afghans, linking some expulsions to national security.
Officials say more than one million migrants have left in the past 100 days, though an estimated six million remain—four million without legal status.
The government has vowed to enforce labor laws, including fines of around $20 per day for undocumented workers, doubling for repeat offenses. Yet enforcement remains patchy in sectors long dependent on informal labor.
Afghans’ role in the Iranian workforce
According to the Ministry of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare, 433,000 registered Afghan workers were active as of June 2025—roughly 2 percent of the total labor force.
More than half worked in construction, while others were employed in industry (19 percent), agriculture (11 percent), and mining (less than 1 percent).
A Chamber of Commerce study noted that Afghans, once concentrated in unskilled jobs, had increasingly moved into skilled and technical roles.
Their disappearance is now raising alarms about productivity and output across the economy.
Industry and construction hit hardest
The owner of an industrial workshop in Boumehen, near Tehran, told Shargh newspaper that even legally employed Afghans have left in fear. “We still haven’t found replacements, and nobody responds to our job ads,” he said.
Construction has been hit hardest.
In 2024, estimates suggested that Afghans made up three-quarters of Iran’s 1.5 million construction workers, and nearly half of those in Tehran.
With deportations underway, projects have stalled, and labor costs have jumped by 30–50 percent. The spike is expected to push housing costs even further out of reach.
Rising costs for food and services
Agriculture has also been disrupted. Farmers report delays in harvesting summer fruits and other perishable produce, including pistachios and saffron—two of Iran’s top non-oil exports.
Higher labor costs threaten to drive up food prices at a time when inflation is already high.
Urban services are showing strain as well.
In Tehran, the deportation of hundreds of Afghan street cleaners employed by municipal contractors has left piles of garbage and recyclables in some neighborhoods. Overflowing trash has become a visible sign of how deeply the deportations are reshaping daily life.
Some contractors have lost up to 80 percent of their workforce, according to city official Naser Amani.
